Did UK introduce restrictions too early?

[Makeitgoaway]

Hear me out!

I don't think they planned to close schools when they did. I think the Welsh and Scotish governments forced their hand and they themselves were influenced by public opinion more than the science.

When I first heard "the plan" it sounded like there were terrible things to come but it made sense to me, as a way of controlling things as much as possible.

The public didn't like it and there was outrage that we didn't "lockdown" to protect ourselves, although "the public" also didn't behave in any sort of sensible manner to protect themselves as we saw last weekend.

So, measures were in force earlier than planned. The more restrictions there are and the earlier they are in place, the longer this thing will last. The restrictions don't protect "us", they protect the NHS. Most people will need to get it before this is over. Lockdown won't make it go away, just slow the rate of infection, meaning it takes longer to play out. While the NHS is coping, was there any need for the restrictions?

In Italy, it has taken 3 weeks for signs of social unrest to emerge. If that happens here we won't be even close to the peak at that stage. What happens then?

Possibly, although I have a vulnerable child so was getting desperate for the government to do something so that dh could work at home.

I do suspect though if this lockdown is going to continue on a semipermanent basis the majority of people would rather take their chances with the disease.

Protecting the NHS is exactly what does protect us. But also the lockdown needs to start 2-4 weeks before the NHS wouldn't be coping for the people who are currently infected to show symptoms and then get ill enough to need hospital care. So it seems too early at the moment but things are going to get worse in the next 1-3 weeks. I'm sure it's very difficult to know as we didn't test many people when 2-4 weeks before the NHS would stop coping is though.

I don’t think “their” hand was forced re: school closures. I took it to be a joint decision, it just so happens that the Scotland and wales press conferences are earlier in the day than Boris’.

I think it was about the right time.
I suspect the World and his Wife going up Snowdon/ round the Lake District/ crowding Brighton beach probably brought lockdown forward a few days

Yes I realised when I pressed send I should have said protecting the NHS does protect us by aiming to ensure there is care available when we need it and I know there will be a time lag but we don't seem to be there yet. If we have gone too soon, how long can we maintain it?

OFFS No!
There are teams of experienced scientists and epidemiologists working on this stuff, you know ....EXPERTS! There will be time at the end of this shitshow to analyse who did right and who did wrong, in the meantime stop spreading malcontent and speculation and go and do something productive instead!

If they hadn't put us into lockdown when they did, they would have been completely slammed by the general public and armchair experts who think they know best. So they were left with no choice.

Yes, that's my concern Billy, that the experts were over ridden by public opinion. They escalated plan overnight. But it was only intended to be a gentle discussion/musing. There's no need to get cross.

I’m with you OP

They should have held the line at least a couple of weeks

I had hoped Boris was one man who would charge on regardless of armchair warriors.

If anything, it was too late not too early.

I think they were between a rock and a hard place. There are "experts" and many of the public claiming they've done too little too late who were clamouring for extra measures and others worrying they've jumped too soon
Chris Whitty said in one of the early briefings to NHS professionals is that the only certainty in this is afterwards, when things are investigated with hindsight, he will be castigated for, either, not doing enough and being responsible for ensuing deaths and NHS chaos or for doing too much and being responsible for wasting funds which was a serious concern prior to the public realising how serious this threat is. Newspapers like The Guardian are still running sniping, nasty articles castigating every decision and every plan they make, it's a thankless task and, thank God, there are people willing to do it.
Protecting the NHS is the only way to protect all of us but lockdown will be a long time for parts of the UK well behind London in the timescale of this

Well wuhan maintained it for a few months

Italy is still maintaining it

How long can it be done for? I don't know and I doubt that we will find out in this pandemic .

No.

I also think that large gatherings (Cheltenham/Crufts) should have been banned much earlier.

I don’t think we did, In fact I took my dd out of school the week before closures were announced.

I think it’s going to hard to tell whether any possible civil unrest is due to lockdown or people scared by the numbers of dead. Basically I think the chance of civil unrest is the same regardless.

@BillywilliamV is right though, none of this will be clear for a long time yet.

No. They acted way too late

Death rates are doubling every 3 days. It will take another 2 weeks of current measures before we see the impact. By that point, we could have over 30 000 deaths.

The government thought they had more time, but rates of infection and death jumped very quickly, from doubling every 5-6 days to doubling every 3 days between the time Boris said we should self isolate and wash our hands to stopping non essential travel. From that point on, we were on the fast trajectory so I think the measures weren't soon enough.

The NHS is already overwhelmed and it's going to get a lot worse over the next fortnight. The flattening of the curve won't be seen until that peak is reached.

It wasn’t just public opinion @Makeitgoaway, the WHO were openly scathing of our governments decisions.

It comes down to which experts you chose to put your trust in and in truth very few of us are qualified to say who should be listened to.

There are riots in Wuhan (a place where people are used to being kept in line an literally terrified of the authorities) now and social unrest in Italy.

Now, banning large gatherings could have been done before....

I don't think they had much choice as soon as our death rates started to mirror those from Italy at the same point.

I suspect it was too late. We will see from countries like Ireland and New Zealand whether their early lockdowns manage to prevent the virus from taking hold in the same way as it has here.

Possibly too late. If precautions had been made earlier we may have destroyed its presence in the UK before it got to this stage.

Some figures though -
Theres roughly 18000 cases in the UK
Theres currently only 8000 ventilators available.
That leaves at least 10000 people unable to access a ventilator if needed, and remember testing is at a minimum so only those in hospital due to complications or the rich and famous are in those figures.
That's potentially 10000 people who cant receive the necessary treatment. Although theres hope of another 8000 ventilators being externally sourced from abroad, that still only provides 16000 ventilators leaving the current figures 2000 ventilators short meaning 2000 preventable deaths may occur. Ans remember the number of cases is still rising (and their only testing the bare minimum, people are dying from "pnumonia" and not recorded in CV figures due to lack of testing).
There are currently over 1000 deaths in the UK. From the above figures that will likely rise sharply, and the "best case" scenario being touted now is limiting UK deaths to 20000, which is unlikely the NHS will have the resources to keep deaths that low.

I think much too late, we've known this was coming since January, we could see what was happening in Spain and Italy. The advice was poor from early on, testing and isolation advice too limited ie. Only if you'd been to certain places. So much wasted time. It blows my mind to see people on social media saying Boris is doing a great job, he's playing catch up because he's done such a bad job!

They acted too late and ignored the WHO. It was obvious what would happen without taking action earlier and here we are.

The problem is ,where I live anyway ,that shutting the schools ,just put kids on the streets
Neighbors in front and behind are just carrying on as normal ,kids out playing mixing together
So they might as well of stayed in school ,as they are mixing just as much out of school.
We are in a nice area ,so therefore no bobbies about to send them home ,
I’m walking my dogs once a day at different times ,and every day I come across a group of teens or a group of 10 / 11 year olds just carrying on as normal.
Parents don’t give A shit to wonder where they are land no police ,you never ever see an officer where I live

More people who do not appear to understand the exponential. It will take two weeks for these measures to start to have an impact. The death rate is doubling roughly every three days, maybe have a look at the maths?