Did UK introduce restrictions too early?

[Makeitgoaway]

Hear me out!

I don't think they planned to close schools when they did. I think the Welsh and Scotish governments forced their hand and they themselves were influenced by public opinion more than the science.

When I first heard "the plan" it sounded like there were terrible things to come but it made sense to me, as a way of controlling things as much as possible.

The public didn't like it and there was outrage that we didn't "lockdown" to protect ourselves, although "the public" also didn't behave in any sort of sensible manner to protect themselves as we saw last weekend.

So, measures were in force earlier than planned. The more restrictions there are and the earlier they are in place, the longer this thing will last. The restrictions don't protect "us", they protect the NHS. Most people will need to get it before this is over. Lockdown won't make it go away, just slow the rate of infection, meaning it takes longer to play out. While the NHS is coping, was there any need for the restrictions?

In Italy, it has taken 3 weeks for signs of social unrest to emerge. If that happens here we won't be even close to the peak at that stage. What happens then?

@SurferRona

It's not LittleDragonGirl who doesn't understand this disease.
It's you who needs to read about it and look at the figures.
In particular look at what other countries are doing.

The UK started off well, testing and tracking, but lost control a while ago when it was decided to limit testing while implementing few containment measures based on voluntary action and vague guidelines about symptoms.
The main culprit in dismissing it, now infected.
You're in for a big shock in a couple of weeks.
I really hope it doesn't get too bad, but I'm not optimistic. It will have to be all hands on deck for health services, public and private.

It wasn't done soon enough. Don't forget this is for our protection and to minimise deaths ffs.

All such a pain isn't it ....

@alloutoffucks where did you get the number of a million have died worldwide? It says 30,000 here:

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Prof Gabriel Leung was warning that the virus would spread rapidly across the world in January, and then at the beginning of March that action was needed quickly - I think action would have been better earlier, not later, but at the same time, better late than never. He said that WHO had delayed declaring a pandemic so as to not panic people - but it is knowing about the facts that leads people taking precautions to avoid spread.

When firms who exist to make money are sending staff home way before the government did anything, it is clear the government did too little too late

My DH billion dollar global firm told staff to wfh last Tuesday after testing software. I work in a school & was rushed off my feet at work for the week arranging all sorts of stuff. You can't just say today there will be total lockdown, there needs to be preparation.
Yes the government could have prepared earlier but I don't think so many retirees would have returned or 500k volunteers appeared when death rates were low. I repeat how would lockdown be enforced if 50% of the population don't agree with it?

It's far too simplistic to compare us to South Korea or Singapore as we are completely culturally different & they have learnt a lot from SARS. A resident of Singapore was stripped of his residency as he didn't follow the self isolation rules & not allowed to re enter. There isn't the appetite for that here.

Of course we can maintain lockdown for more than 4 weeks if needed.
We locked down too late - the NHS cannot Cole. We don’t yet have the PPE or tests to manage. There is so much to be done before this hits. Earlier lockdown would have slowed this thing down.

If they did it earlier the lockdown would be shorter. We're not going to see the effects of the lockdown for another 2 weeks or so (or see whether these fools that keep on twisting the rules doing their own thing has fucked it up for everyone)

& the restrictions were put in place precisely because a lot of people don’t understand the way exponential growth works, the consequences of the sunny weekend before lockdown where people ‘just wanted to see their Mum’ on Mother’s Day or have one last pint on the night the pubs shit, or ignored the gatherings advice are about to come to fruition & it will be horrifying...

Watch the lily pad explanation on here and look at the explanation, the graph is rising (it’s a non scary scientific & ok for kids explanation, but the ‘it’s all fine, until it isn’t’ message is very clear)..

m.youtube.com/watch?v=fgBla7RepXU

Yes it is going to get way worse. In spite of the massaging of figures happening already.

@alloutoffucks can you show me a link where 1 million people have died already from coronavirus?

"If they did it earlier the lockdown would be shorter."

No it absolutely wouldn't. The more locked down we are the longer this thing goes on for. The whole point of a lockdown is to spread the cases out and therefore, to make it last longer.

If we'd had a short early lockdown, what do you think happens when we come out of it?

I think the Welsh and Scottish governments forced their hand

hahahahahaha...…...Seriously? dinnae be daft now, but thanks for the Sunday morning smile.

Scotland and Wales, would have had little or no influence in Boris's UK decision. What makes you think they did?

@doofusmoof Yes there needs to be prep. My firm did that prep and closed long before government did lock down as did most others. I know GSK 3-4 weeks ago were essential staff in only, we were lab staff only an on a strict rota to maintain large distances.

I think there is a lot of figures and scaremongering on here about numbers, can we stick to facts where numbers are concerned

No the point of lock down is to stop the spread. The UK government from the beginning has worked on assumption most will get it. Most other governments are not.

No. If there could be any argument that they did, it relates to idiots who can't behave appropriately in a crisis. They locked down too late. They're needing to keep a deadly virus under control and the sooner the better.

@doofusmoofb 1 million have already died because of covoid 19, we are at the very beginning of this

@alloutoffucks where did you get this figure from? Official figures say 31,000 deaths.

Anyway, I think we got the balance roughly right although possibly a week too late. Looking at the figures from Spain and Italy, which we've been shadowing but about two weeks behind, we will increase the number of cases daily by around 3,000, which will steadily climb to 5-6,000 increased daily cases. So over two weeks we could have 50,000 new cases which require hospitalisation, since we're only testing, and therefore recording, hospitalised cases atm.

If ten per cent of these cases require ventilators, that's almost our entire stock of ventilators in the country at the start of this outbreak. It also doesn't take into account those who are already requiring ventilation. It also doesn't factor in having enough staff to man the equipment. We needed to slow down the rate of infection and we've tried to do this. Only time will tell if we got the balance right.

""If they did it earlier the lockdown would be shorter."

Yes, because the lockdown lasts until the crisis is under control,
with the peak no higher than the number of cases the NHS can handle

If you start lockdown with a huge number of cases in the pipeline for the next weeks,
then it takes longer to get it under control

How would lockdown have been enforced earlier when we had low death rates?

I think we were 1-2 weeks too late in locking down.
I think we were forced to lockdown when the expected deaths figures if we did not lockdown were released/leaked.
I think the herd immunity idea has some merit but allowing a significant number of deaths to achieve it was a poorly thought out decision to play God with our elderly and vulnerable relatives.
Just my thoughts - not looking for an argument.

I don’t think “their” hand was forced re: school closures. I took it to be a joint decision, it just so happens that the Scotland and wales press conferences are earlier in the day than Boris’

I think they were trying to get to Easter and then not reopen afterwards. They got caught out by the numbers rising much faster than expected which meant it had to brought forwards. Then Scotland and Wales forced them to announce their decision earlier than they would have done, which is why the key worker list came out 24hrs later causing confusion about who qualified.

Any government has to balance lives saved vs the economy

AND above all, listen to the experts

• To be fair, looks like the UK govt has been doing that for at least the last couple of weeks

Demographics, cultural habits (e.g. % of SAHPs, multigenerational living), level of health service capacity, state of the economy .....

• as well as politics - all come into consideration on what is best for each individual country

It was too late. Thousands and thousands are going to die, we are not prepared.

Very interesting article here about our government’s reliance on social science rather than real science:
www.spiked-online.com/2020/03/18/nudging-an-elite-disease/

We had enough warning, we could have been preparing since early February. Instead it’s all done in a rush after weeks of wasting time.

legislation was passed on about 11 Feb allowing the government to take emergency measures. Then it did nothing till mid-March, when real scientists showed we were in for a huge death rate if the government continued on its untried and evidence-free course. Then, a government U-turn and a sudden flurry of action.

Alot of people are complaining its too late rather then early!! I have no idea but just hope and pray for my family and friends