Did UK introduce restrictions too early?

[Makeitgoaway]

Hear me out!

I don't think they planned to close schools when they did. I think the Welsh and Scotish governments forced their hand and they themselves were influenced by public opinion more than the science.

When I first heard "the plan" it sounded like there were terrible things to come but it made sense to me, as a way of controlling things as much as possible.

The public didn't like it and there was outrage that we didn't "lockdown" to protect ourselves, although "the public" also didn't behave in any sort of sensible manner to protect themselves as we saw last weekend.

So, measures were in force earlier than planned. The more restrictions there are and the earlier they are in place, the longer this thing will last. The restrictions don't protect "us", they protect the NHS. Most people will need to get it before this is over. Lockdown won't make it go away, just slow the rate of infection, meaning it takes longer to play out. While the NHS is coping, was there any need for the restrictions?

In Italy, it has taken 3 weeks for signs of social unrest to emerge. If that happens here we won't be even close to the peak at that stage. What happens then?

Yes Corona, I work in school too and we were close to having to close because of staff shortages and behaviour was awful. Staff and students unsettled by the expectation that we would close. I do think they would have liked schools open until this week under "the plan" though.

I also wonder if restrictions should have been regional, if London is so far ahead of the rest of the country.

Also interesting that crime figures have fallen drastically

They acted way too late. My employer (City firm) sent us home more than two weeks ago and by that point most of the major banks and investment houses had had the vast majority of staff at home for a week already. It was obvious what was needed from early March. Businesses which are global have already seen CV in other parts of the world and knew what the U.K. needed to do very early on.

CalmYoBadSelf - A rock and a hard place indeed. My heart goes out to Chris Whitty and everyone else involved in the analysis of the situation and advising on the best course to adopt.

Italy

If anything, it was too late not too early

I agree.

If they had been testing, tracing and isolating early then lockdown could have waited but they did nothing. Rates of infection went higher and faster than they expected and the Imperial College report made it clear what their strategy was headed for unmitigated disaster. It wasn’t ‘armchair experts’ who wrote that report. With hardly any testing in the early stages, the government made an early lockdown the only remaining option.

Yes I do understand that things are awful and escalating but restrictions/lock down aren't going to change that. So far, no one has died through lack of medical facilities. Restrictions will only prevent deaths that occur because the patients didn't get the treatment they needed. While there are enough ventilators etc, they don't change anything, except to make it all last longer.

Way way too late on everything especially closing down flights. Way to late on being strict with the public gatherings. Still dithering on “essential work”.
Poverty driven not science, the UK’s response is poverty driven not science.

Yes, those are the two cases in Italy that have been on our news that I mentioned above.

Many countries lost no time in closing their borders to all passengers apart from returning citizens and foreigners who were leaving.

We are an island. It should have been easier for us to do that.

Too late. Johnson has f*cked up and without excuse - we were in the fortunate position of learning from & not making the previous mistakes China & Italy made but he 'knew better'. Incompetent, irresponsible, lying fool surpassed only by the cretin in the Whitehouse.

But they have to lockdown three weeks before they would get to the point of running out of medical facilities if they hadn’t locked down - I realise that’s convoluted! But if they wait til the crisis hits and THEN lock down, the crisis escalates for another three weeks because of the people incubating the virus they contracted pre-lockdown. That crisis then accelerates exponentially because the health service is already crashing but numbers are continuing to rise.

If lockdown works, people might feel it’s pointless because it averts the crisis so people don’t see the ravaging effects of the virus. Lockdown will only work if it’s enforced weeks before that crisis is due to happen.

If they'd delayed a couple of weeks, the NHS would have been completely overwhelmed, Nightingale Hospital or no Nightingale Hospital.

So far, no one has died through lack of medical facilities.

Not true. A number of medical professionals have attested to the fact that they've had to make choices about who gets ventilated, knowing that the person who doesn't will die.

I think it was done at the right time and am hoping it will be over in 6 weeks. Suicide rates will increase, domestic violence will increase, and I imagine there will be more battered children.

The numbers per million of population in the UK are low. 252 cases per million; 15 deaths. If those numbers double every 3 days: 1920 deaths per million in 21 days as a worst case scenario. 1920/1000000 x 100 = 0.192% per million and ofthat figure will be a high proportion of people who were dying of other things and tested positive.

The response has been wholly disproportionate when compared to other effects of this: on mh, on abuse, on the economy and the future of our children. However the impact on global warming is v positive and there are lessons there moving forward. Nature's own reinforcement?

Sweden is a very sensible country but still not locked down. Swedes maybe take their responsibilities to the community more seriously than Brits do, it's got a lot to do with the behavioural response. Also fewer metropolitan concentrations. Time will tell who did better but timing of lockdown is not the only factor.

Some of the posts on this thread inadvertently illustrate your point perfectly, OP, re public opinion based on ignorance overriding scientific advice!

I honestly think they were too late, seems we have the virus despite limiting our contact with others in the weeks ahead. It's not a joyride though it doesn't look like we are heading for the hospital as our symptoms are moderate. We isolated ourselves the week before school closed as we fell ill around then, I am honestly raging at this government and their haps-hazard approach to this situation. More so that they knew what was coming and did little to nothing to control it.

Palladin what would you prefer they did?

It was left far too late, the NHS is going to be completely slammed now. We should have learnt from Italy and Spain, but no. We’re just at the tip of the Covid-19 storm, and that’s partiallythanks to the fact they were still allowing places like Cheltenham to go ahead!!! They flew fans in from Madrid even though they had partial lockdown due to the amount of Covid cases! Don’t forget what’s been and what’s got us in this mess. The more I think about the angrier I get.

Left it WAY too late. As Lewis Hamilton said “cash is king.”

Yes I do understand that things are awful and escalating but restrictions/lock down aren't going to change that.

Why do you say that?

The whole idea of the lockdown is that it slows the spread so that fewer people are suffering at any one time, therefore there are enough ICU beds/ventilators for those who need it. If the virus is allowed to run rife, there will be far too many people in need of treatment at once and medics will have to choose who gets treated. Also,the number of health professionals catching the virus would be far higher so the health system would be weakened further.

OhTheRoses we don’t know how many cases we have though because there is virtually no testing. So what use are those figures?

@CaptainBrickbeard So we let lots of people die so that the public can see lock down is needed?
I can imagine that being Boris strategy because he is a coward so does not want to lead and say this is what needs to happen now.

Swedes are not taking it seriously. They all seem to think it's a big fuss about nothing, just a bit of flu. Their numbers are just about to explode and they're going to have an 'oh fuck' moment just like every other country.