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What do you think will happen at the end of the 3 weeks ?

265 replies

dollface19 · 28/03/2020 11:42

Just that really
It's interesting to know others people opinions, As the virus gets worse in uk although we had no new cases or new deaths Since yesterday so far 🤞🏻

OP posts:
Nonnymum · 29/03/2020 12:42

I'm pretty sure it will be extended. Maybe initially fir another 3 weeks but we will be in lock down until numbers of new infections slow down and then probably it will only be partially lifted it won't help if eveyone strarys having huge gatherings straight away again

Sostenueto · 29/03/2020 12:43

Do you honestly think a London nurse is going to tell you " the hospitals have no ventilators, at full capacity many will die"? There would be wholesale panic!

Fieldofgreycorn · 29/03/2020 12:44

Lockdown for at least 2 months. That’s what it’s taken in China and they were stricter.

MarshaBradyo · 29/03/2020 12:44

There’s been enough medics pleading for people to stay home to know it’s not fine.

NotDisclosedToday · 29/03/2020 12:45

I think it will continue until either

i) Enough people have been infected so there are no longer enough hosts for it to spread
ii) A vaccine has been deployed into the population

Im struggling to see any other possibilities.

Sostenueto · 29/03/2020 12:47

Full lockdown starting in London by this time next week or week after for rest of country.

Fieldofgreycorn · 29/03/2020 12:48

The UK is two to three weeks behind Italy

Yes and if you look at the start in each country then Italy is four weeks behind China.

Tonyaster · 29/03/2020 12:49

London is very close to breaking point - that is the truth. Ventilators will have to be rationed if numbers rise rapidly

But it isn't at breaking point and ventilators aren't being rationed

maralough · 29/03/2020 12:51

Sostenuto if your information is unverified then it's wicked of you to post it. I'm in London with my DH (over 70) and you've just made me cry.

MarshaBradyo · 29/03/2020 12:51

Tonyaster what are you basing that on?

Listening to radio doesn’t seem to back that up.

Sostenueto · 29/03/2020 12:52

People forget are 1000s of x soldiers and our Territorial Army. These will be used to bag the dead take to mortuaries man the blockades and help the police. We have a call out for ex policemen now as well as x NHS staff. 20 miles from me is an old WW2 airfield full of Apache helicopters and a school full of Army members. We had helicopter flying over our town for 2 days and what a racket could not believe my eyes took photo and found out what it was. It was flying low. Also don't forget drones. Yes will just about have enough forces for a bit. Until good riots break out if we can't get our crops picked by ripening time.

Sostenueto · 29/03/2020 12:56

The cry ' save our nhs' is because the Tories gave underfunded and ran it down ready for privatisation for 10 long years and believe me when I say the government knows it is an impossible task for it to cope hence the real heavy pressure to do as we are told about social distancing. This country is being put on a war footing to fight the virus support the NHS from caving in and to save as many lives as possible and the sooner everyone realised why these measures are in place and why it will get stricter. We really on war status we really are!

Tigger001 · 29/03/2020 12:58

I think as a PP said, its is the unknown that some are struggling with.

I imagine the lockdown will be extended, for a further month, I cant see them locking down workers further, I think they should, but if they do, they need to get more organised to help people finance it.

We are planning to be in this situation for longer than 3 weeks and more like 3 months. If it keeps ourselves and others that little bit safer we are ok with that.

Sostenueto · 29/03/2020 13:03

I apologise maralough but I did say I cannot verify it but what I can verify us that 2 weeks ago at my last cancer appointment ( I am 67) I was told in veiled terms like...if you catch the virus you only have 10% chance of survival...ICU resources are very limited.....you really really must stay indoors completely from now on for an indefinite period........ In other words I fall in the over 65 category with serious conditions. Isn't it obvious though that really tough awful decisions will have to be made. Would I want to be on a ventilator knowing I probably won't survive anyway when there is a younger fitter person dying fir want if a ventilator with years ahead of them? I have already decided this will be my last cancer treatment. A 40 year battle but it keeps coming back has made me realise it's not the number if years you live but the quality of those years that matter. Once again so sorry to upset you that was not my intention.Flowers

teta · 29/03/2020 13:04

‘terrified’ frontline doctors braced for coronavirus surge

This @Tonyaster.
My sister is a medic - currently ill with suspected Corona virus caught off infected patients on her ward. This is outside of London.

Tonyaster · 29/03/2020 13:13

Sorry - i am not disputing that there is going to be a bad time ahead. But we aren't there yet, which is why I don't believe the earlier post

MigginsMrs · 29/03/2020 13:20

I’d love nothing more than Boris to end up as some have put it with “egg on his face” and the extra capacity not being needed. That would be fantastic.

Tonyaster · 29/03/2020 13:23

Just wait for the carping about it!

MarshaBradyo · 29/03/2020 13:24

People moan no matter what it’s true. If people are upset there’s extra beds then let’s put them in a topic alone and hide it.

ChristmasCarcass · 29/03/2020 13:33

Sostenuto no idea when you are getting your information from, but we have not run out of ICU beds or ventilators in South London.

And anybody in another hospital trust in the UK which has run out of ventilators, would be transferred to us (or to the nearest hospital with capacity), as I am sure you well know, what with all of your extensive ICU experience.

What do you think will happen at the end of the 3 weeks ?
MigginsMrs · 29/03/2020 13:35

I won’t be carping. I think if we can look back on this whole horrible situation and think we overreacted then that wlll be a great result. I’d happily pay extra tax for 5000 beds to be provided and not one of them need to be used.

teta · 29/03/2020 13:36

It's already starting to happen

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[[NEWS
Hospital’s critical care unit overwhelmed by coronavirus patients]]
By Lawrence Dunhill20 March 2020

Save article
A major London hospital declared a “critical incident” due to a surge in patients with coronavirus, with one senior director in the capital calling the development “petrifying”.

In a message to staff on Thursday night, Northwick Park Hospital in Harrow said it had no critical care capacity left and was contacting neighbouring hospitals about transferring patients who need critical care to other sites.

The message, seen by HSJ, said: “I am writing to let you know that we have this evening declared a ‘critical incident’ in relation to our critical care capacity at Northwick Park Hospital. This is due to an increasing number of patients with Covid-19.

“This means that we currently do not have enough space for patients requiring critical care.

“As part of our system resilience plans, we have contacted our partners in the North West London sector this evening to assist with the safe transfer of patients off of the Northwick Park site”

The trust said the incident was stood down at 4pm on Friday, as they were able to open some more critical care beds. It has not yet stated how many new beds were opened.

The hospital is run by London North West University Healthcare Trust, which has reported six deaths related to coronavirus, all at Northwick Park.

The potential lack of critical care beds in England has been the major concern around coronavirus, and trusts are currently repurposing wards and retraining staff to try and create more capacity. National leaders have suggested the number of critical care beds likely needs to rise by several times.

A senior director at another London acute trust told HSJ: “Given we’re in the low foothills of this virus, this is f*ing petrifying.

“The thing people aren’t really talking about yet is that we are going to have to quickly agree some clinical thresholds for admissions to intensive care. This is what the Italians have had to do, and whether its set at [a maximum age of] 60 or whatever, we are going to have to do something similar. There’s no way we’re going to be able to scale up to the level we need otherwise.

“The trusts in outer London seem to be hit much worse at the moment, probably about two weeks ahead of the rest of the country. Barnet, Lewisham and Greenwich, Epsom and St Helier, North Middlesex and Hillingdon are all struggling.

“I was in denial about the seriousness of this virus a couple of weeks ago, but not anymore.

“I’m now on calls with commissioners about getting more people out of hospital and into the community, and they’re saying ’yes that’ll be done in the next week’, and I’m on the verge of screaming at them. Things are going completely nuts.

“And there’s a real problem with private care homes refusing to take patients back unless they’ve been tested for covid-19. But that’s not the national guidance currently and there just aren’t enough testing kits to do it.”

A spokeswoman for LNWHT said: “Critical care capacity for patients with coronavirus is being organised on a cross-London basis so that hospitals and organisations work together to deliver the best possible care for patients.

“This kind of coordinated, flexible response is one of the NHS’s strengths but with staff pulling out all the stops they need the public to play their part too, by following the expert guidance on washing your hands, staying at home and using health services responsibly.”

Source
Information obtained by HSJ

Source Date
March 2020

Topics
CoronavirusLondonLondon North West University Healthcare NHS Trust
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Lesley Bacon
#CommentAvatarLabelCommented on:25 March 2020 14:02

Watching Parliament on TV today
The front bench were still sitting side by side......

Can someone please get serious

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M Harding
#CommentAvatarLabelCommented on:22 March 2020 17:50

In response to some of the previous comments:

(i) if NHSE were to advise providers how to prioritise ITU admission or ventilator access the relevant professional societies/clinicians would be angry that 'bean counters' were not taking any notice of their clinical opinion/expertise

(ii) cited 'death rates' are entirely dependent on national Covid-19 testing policies and the UK has been heavily criticised for the virtually non-existent population (as opposed initially to contract) testing. If this reveals as expected a cohort of relatively asymptomatic cases the supposed 'death rate' will fall

(iii) the cited 'death rate' cannot be a consequence of limited ITU capacity at this stage of the pandemic though it may become so

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Timothy Richardson
#CommentAvatarLabelCommented on:22 March 2020 15:20

Thank you author of the last comment, I appreciate your response. Also pleased regarding your comments on Rockwood and Respect in the current epidemic.

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Anonymous
#CommentAvatarLabelCommented on:21 March 2020 14:42

A moving story, and thank you for sharing it.
Junior staff are more likely to avoid initiating difficult conversations, and will tend to default to active management.
Early senior assessment and involvement of a consultant is more likely to result in early decision making.

One thing we are looking to do is to include the Rockwood Clinical Frailty Score in the COVID assessment protocol which helps trigger doctors to think about what the ceiling of care that the patient may already have decided e.g. as per RESPECT form.

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Timothy Richardson
#CommentAvatarLabelCommented on:21 March 2020 11:01

Last week my 96 year old father was admitted acutely having collapsed at home with a probable uti and chest infection. Some time previously he had complete a Respect form (replacement for DNR) with his GP requested no active treatment if he had a life threatening illness. This form accompanied him with his daughter into the acute provider.

Yet within a couple of hours he was hooked up to a drip with iv antibiotics! It took 3 days of negotiating for active treatment to be stopped and only when the consultancy eventually asked what my father wanted. His answer was an unambiguous “I don’t want to live any more”.

He was discharged home to be looked after by my sister and me and he passed away peacefully in his own bed within 48 hours.

The point of this story is that the high levels of deaths in Italy and here from Coronavirus are predominantly in the elderly and those with significant pre existing conditions. My father would not have wanted to live let alone be offered a ventilator if he had been infected.

How many potential patients have already completed a Respect form to not be actively treated who’s wishes might be lost in the stress of an acute admission. How many frail but alert elderly might wish to avoid either just being treated or remove the stress of choice making by front line staff and so consider discussing whether to complete a Respect form with their family and GP?

This doesn’t appear to have been raised anywhere In the press that I have read, perhaps it’s too sensitive a matter but I believe it’s something that should be considered.

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Anonymous
#CommentAvatarLabelCommented on:21 March 2020 05:27

The failings of a bureaucratic centralised model of healthcare based upon compliance and targets and one size fits all. Even when we knew it was coming we did nothing. Outstanding work all of you at the NHSE.

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Anonymous
#CommentAvatarLabelCommented on:21 March 2020 03:33

The looming shortages are a stark reminder of our foolish reliance on government healthcare. Successive governments have done nothing to ensure we move to a more private model for the majority of citizens. This would provide better quality and provision and leave us better placed to deal with this. We reap what we sow.

If that annoyed you somewhat, imagine how it feels to see this every time healthcare is discussed and especially in a crisis like this. Using a global catastrophe to promote one's particular views on healthcare provision is a bit annoying. Having said that, we all have our opinions although it's slightly galling to see the way this crisis is being used.

I hope as many people make it as possible and I'm sure most of us are either scared for ourselves or our loved ones. Good luck and good luck to the doctors and nurses...

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Anonymous
#CommentAvatarLabelCommented on:20 March 2020 21:38

Based on the Imperial numbers, we will need 70-100 ICU beds for an average sized hospital that currently has about 15 beds.

We have had 15 years of disinvestment in acute services - and Emergency Medicine, Ambulance and Intensive Care resilience is completely inadequate for the country’s security.

A colleague told me that there are only 16 professors of Emergency Medicine but 163 professors of Ancient Greek in the UK, and even fewer professors of Ambulance / paramedic care. While professors don’t save lives on their own, they are a marker of professional recognition and investment. I wonder if we might have got the balance wrong?

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Anonymous
#CommentAvatarLabelCommented on:20 March 2020 21:31

Just best wishes to NWL and everyone else working in health and care right now. We are going to need each other.

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Anonymous
#CommentAvatarLabelCommented on:20 March 2020 21:30

Julian Hamer

Numbers look about right to me on demand side. I think supply might be higher than you estimate given everything that is going on. But conclusion that there will be a lot of additional deaths over this period inescapable.

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SistemaAddict · 29/03/2020 13:57

Our high school have told us they've been told to prepare for this to go on into September but are working on 12 weeks atm. That's just the school though. I don't know how things will pan out with lockdown. I anticipate stricter measures though as people don't seem to understand the concept of stay at home.

Sostenueto · 29/03/2020 14:07

Fatalities now 1228 up to 5 pm last night just now announced on BBC news at 14.07 pm

Sostenueto · 29/03/2020 14:10

1,028 Saturday 28 th figure given at 2 pm yesterday.
11 Friday 13th
21 Saturday 14th
35 Sunday 15th
55 Monday 16th
71 Tuesday 17th
104 wed 18th
144 Thur 19 th
177 Friday 20th
233 Saturday 21st
281 Sunday 22nd
335 Monday 23rd
424 Tuesday 24th
465 Wednesday 25th
578 Thursday 26th
759 Friday 27th
1,028 Saturday 28 th

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