If less people are dying in Germany of this....

[jobhunter7]

Should we not be thinking of looking at what they are doing over there that is working and seeing if it would work in the UK, also?

edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/opinions/germany-low-death-rate-for-coronavirus-sepkowitz/index.html

Tactiturn it isn’t true. How did you hear about that?

Fewer people. twitch

Pics is wrong. Germany is testing far more and they are including all deaths in their reports.

Here in Berlin, we have a lot of cases but only 3 deaths so far (in a city of 3.5 million). Strangely, there is a higher proportion of younger patients here -- which also helps explain the lower death rate, because younger people are less likely to die from the virus.

I do think social customs play a role. People here are already very hygiene conscious lots of hand washing, leaving shoes outside and you are encouraged to stay home at the first sign of a sniffle. People don't hug or kiss acquaintances routinely. There is a lot of focus on health and exercise. And, people know they will get a lot of support from benefits if they fall ill or lose their jobs, so it's easier to get people to stay home.

The government has also been much more clear and firm in its instructions.

I'm stuck on City of London and no confirmed cases. I think that's something to look at deeper.
I think that may be because all the nearby nhs hospitals are in other boroughs, so the patients who live in CoL may be counted against the other boroughs stats of that makes sense.

@Absentwomen when I looked at the stats last, I thought City was included in Hackney. Apologies if I am wrong though.

German healthcare is very 'intense'. Pregnancy for example... I had about 8/9 scans, saw a doctor 4/5 times in addition to midwife appointments, had blood tests for various conditions, had a scan during labour to ascertain the size of the baby, standard stay post birth minimum of 3 days, up to 7 being normal.

They are identifying more minor cases. So not sitting at home with a cough... They know one way or the other.

Lack of beds ICU isn’t the issue yet, we are not at capacity in most of the Uk. Germany has had lower death/total statistics than us for weeks now.

I would suggest a large part is socio-economic. My German family have the under 60s in cities and the elderly living alone in rural areas. I think this is more common in Germany. Cities seem to have much higher transmission rates. Extended families don’t often live together (like in Italy).

I also think their confirmed cases are high because they are testing more people. If we are missing 90% of our cases then that would more than equal out the death rates.

But these are just thoughts. Epidemiologists will know better and be gathering data as fast as they can.

I think you'll find that Germans are a lot more law-abiding than we are. When told to stay home - they do. I'm sure this is a major factor.

I'm stuck on City of London and no confirmed cases. I think that's something to look at deeper.

It's because the City of London has fewer than 10,000 residents (7,400 in the last census):

www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/services/environment-and-planning/planning/development-and-population-information/Documents/census-information-reports-introduction-november-2012.pdf

I do think social customs play a role. People here are already very hygiene conscious lots of hand washing, leaving shoes outside and you are encouraged to stay home at the first sign of a sniffle

I think there’s something to this as well; I’ve repeatedly pointed out that Japan isn’t experiencing anything like Europe despite being so close to China with a lot of back and forth. There’s no lockdowns and retail shops and businesses are mostly open. Of course, people are being very careful, but I do think cultural factors are meaningful.

PicsinRed, neither of your claims are true. I've heard the latter one a lot and find it slightly offensive, tbh. (Naturalised German who's lived in Germany for two decades).

We're not testing anyone and everyone, but we are testing a considerably broader group of people and perhaps have a broader definition of what constitutes a contact.

Healthcare is much better resourced than in the UK (albeit not perfect and can be regionally patchy) and we pay for it via statutory insurance at around 16 % of net income (half of that if you are an employee because your employer covers the other half).

I also (controversially) think people got on board with the whole social distancing sooner. We had a cluster of cases in a particular district early on, straight after carnival, and I think how, and how fast, this spreads really sank in then and people started modifying their behaviour. I went to a concert a couple of weeks ago (before any restrictions) and the place was half-empty although I had got some of the last tickets.

Interestingly, infection rates in the areas immediately surrounding the cluster district don't really diverge from those elsewhere in Germany, which suggests that hat district did things pretty right from the outset.

Yes Japan worth looking at agree.

My bf here in Germany has just got tested today, at a unit that has been specially set u foor the purpose. He got in within 30 minutes as he was in a danger region last week, has a cold - no temperature or unusual cough - and is a smoker. Will get the results in 2-3 days.

The death rate will appear higher in the UK if people like him (with no Corona symptoms) are being tested in Germany, whereas only people with serious symptoms / already admitted to hospital are being tested in the UK.

Absent

Cumbria has such a high number simply because all the second home owners and holiday makers raced up here. It was busier than a Bank Holiday in the tourist areas. And they're still here, stripping the local shops bare because they don't want to risk supermarkets which means the elderly can't access them.

Our tiny, general hospital is fucked. ICU is full, they had to set up icu type beds on wards...... . A school headmistress has died. She wasn't old, she was in her 50s, she was running round the playground with the children weeks ago. They refused to test her when she first reported being ill and the school reopened. Then here we are.

I honestly didn't think it would come here as we're so remote and I'm extremely scared. We currently have a hotel full of international doctors helping because the staff and resources just aren't there.

• Germans are testing EVERYONE, they're doing like 30k tests a day and have the capacity, allegedly of going up to 160k tests a day. So they're catching more people who have the virus and not developing severe symptoms. Whereas we're testing only when people get ADMITTED to ICU..... so like... I would say it's proof that the virus is not very dangerous to people without underlying conditions.* This would square very much with the Oxford Uni report yesterday which suggests that half the population have had this but dont yet know.

The data is not like for like so hard to compare

However ...

They are testing more, so the death rate looks lower
They had a lot of cases among young, healthy people unlikely to die from this (skiing related?)
They have great medical care
They are less tactile than other countries with higher death rates (Italy for e.g.)

So a mixture of cultural reasons, health provision and random circumstance.

On the hygiene thing, I've been seeing signs in public loos on how to wash your hands properly, in offices explaining that they won't be offering handshakes during the flu season, etc., for several years now.

Our local testing facility is a drive-through (says dh). My ds goes (obv not atm) to school with a boy who was tested after his neighbour (not even sure if direct NDN, and no prolonged contact AFAIK) tested positive. He was negative, or I presume ds and all of us would have been tested too, especially as ds shares school transport with this boy.

"I think that may be because all the nearby nhs hospitals are in other boroughs, so the patients who live in CoL may be counted against the other boroughs stats of that makes sense"

That would make sense.

Agree @dreamingbohemian
I'm in Hessen and totally agree with you on the different social norms to the UK and Southern European countries.

"People here are already very hygiene conscious lots of hand washing, leaving shoes outside -- and you are encouraged to stay home at the first sign of a sniffle. People don't hug or kiss acquaintances routinely."

Agree agree agree
Also people opted/ tested working from home from as early as the end of Feb, beginning of March. Then by the beginning of March I noticed a drop off in the office. There were already emails and preparations for building shut downs. My D.C. have been off nursery since the beginning of March, no choice. Key jobs have been outlined specifically and all other places had to close. It is far more obligatory and authoritative (see this as you wish).

Some of family back in the uk haven't been taking this seriously at all, and are still going about same as usual.

As of yesterday, an official source said that over 400,000 tests had been done so far in March in Germany.
www.mta-dialog.de/artikel/fachaerztliche-labore-seit-anfang-maerz-ueber-400000-coronavirus-tests.html

"As of 9am on 24 March 2020, a total of 90,436 people have been tested, of which 82,359 were confirmed negative and 8,077 were confirmed positive. 422 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died." www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

If it is more about social practises then going in hard first with hand washing message wasn’t so bad.

I read it might be due in part to generally better hygiene/health habits.

Fewer people are dying in Germany because...

• All 'as I understand it'...

They are not as far along as we are.

They test more adults. There are lots of asymptomatic and/or fit/healthy positive tests - this makes them look like they have a much lower death rate.

@Absentwomen

Re Cumbria - one of the clusters (in the South) was caused as an elderly man went to Italy and came back without realising he had contracted Coronavirus. He went to a quiz night in the local village hall and infected 10 other people directly. He has since sadly died. Who knows how many people have been infected by those other 10 people, but don’t know it yet.

You are right in saying that this is an area with a higher proportion of the elderly than cities, some of whom will have underlying conditions.

A good friend of mine lives in the village and is worried. Everyone is being very careful. Voluntarily self isolating prior to the lockdown.