Is this scaremongering: schools not open until December

[JuneTreeTop]

Heard off a few people today (different times) that schools wont open until December.
Surely not????

Why bother predicting something which is unknown.
No-one likes schools being closed.....that doesn't make any difference to how long they will need to be closed. It's outside everyone's control and you just have to trust that when it is safe, they will re-open.

I remain amazed that people want predictions which aren't possible and want to know every little last detail of every plan, when those things take time to come together. People in government, hospitals and schools are working round the clock to create new systems....it takes a little while and some sense of patience is necessary.

Key word - forbearance. We must bear with each other and significantly raise our thresholds for annoyance.

Why is everything fucking scaremongering? Christ on a bike.

@EverydayLife

It could be later as some of the experts are saying we are in this for 18 months-2 years.

No that isnt what the experts or the modelling is saying in terms of closures. None of the modelling has closures for that length of time.

What they are saying is that there will be a longer inital lockdown (at the moment this is looking to be up to 12 weeks it may change) after that the hope would be the curve is flatten. Things will then be opened. From there a couple of options are around about how you handle it - depending really on how are testing and isolating measures come into play.

Or we have so badly mismanaged this and its so widely spread we hit a high peak very very soon

Who knows. No earlier than September

We're predicting September; I'm in a school.

Friday was a very sad day saying goodbye to a lot of children...

This kind of speculation is completely pointless. We have not even managed to get the country locked down, so until that happens we can't make any estimates at how long this will last.

But it will be sooner if everyone who can stay home does stay home.

Why is everything fucking scaremongering? Christ on a bike.

What planet are you on? This is the scariest thing to happen to the world since WW2!!!

September not December
Then rolling closures as needed over winter.
According to my friend who is actually a virologist

Herd immunity is an unproven and unscientific theory

WTF? It is the best and current theory - why on earth else would we have nationwide vaccination programmes?

The problem with it in relation to CV is that it would result in a number of deaths that has been deemed to be unacceptable.

It would definitely be the fastest way out of the current situation though.

Why do people think its scaremongering? Its reality!

This kind of speculation is completely pointless

This - just what is the point in speculating like this?
Nobody knows how long it will be - I mean as the saying goes, how long is a piece of string?!
The best we can all do is just get on with it for now and take each day as it comes.
That's what I'm doing, anyway.

Nobody knows what might or might not happen.

It's a virus. It gives not one fuck about human timescales or being "fair".

We really don't know.

However, two big factors are likely to be -

• how soon they find a cure or at least medicines that are effective (likely to be much sooner than finding a vaccine, as that needs to be created specifically for this virus and thoroughly tested for safety, whereas reusing existing drugs that are already on the market do not need to be tested for safety so could be available within a month or two).
• how quickly they develop an antibody test, and make it widely available, as this will allow everyone who has recovered but isn't sure if they had it and everyone who was asymptomatic to get back to school, work etc.

Herd immunity is an unproven and unscientific theory

WTF? It is the best and current theory - why on earth else would we have nationwide vaccination programmes?

Actually, I think you will find that herd immunity has only ever been achieved through vaccination. Not through allowing people to just catch a disease.

So "natural" herd immunity is very much a theoretical construct.

Yes herd immunity refers to vaccination programmes. A concept has been taken from one context and applied to another. This explains it better.

voxpoliticalonline.com/2020/03/21/boris-johnson-wasted-seven-weeks-talking-nonsense-about-coronavirus-says-expert/?

A vaccination program is exactly the same thing...exposing an individual to the virus and antibodies developing in response.

In one works, then then other will (and vice versa)

I can't image keeping kids off for 8 months!! It wouldn't be fair on the working parents who are not key workers

I didn't realise that a virus had to be fair to a section of the population.
Better to save lives, don't you think?

The schools will be closed for at least as long as they were in China.

Then we'll have to see if China get a second wave or not.

Assuming we do become immune (at least short term) to Covid-19 once we've had it, then the next wave should be shorter.

Although if everyone keeps mixing as they are then it will be done much quicker (with a lot more deaths).

The only benefit we might gain from being behind China in all this is that there are some possible treatments using existing drugs which may help the most severely infected.

Those drugs are currently being tested and, if they work, lots of people could benefit from them, possibly lowering the death rate.

After all we all catch colds regularly. None of us are immune to colds.

We’ve been given stuff to last us this week and next term, no suggestion at the moment that schools will still be shut next year.

Our school isn’t closed though. Out if approx 300 kids we’re expecting between 150-200 tomorrow, all are children of ‘key’ workers. I am support staff. Expected to work through Easter, May & 6 wks holidays. Whilst having 2 kids at home alone together., a teenager (15) and a 10 yr old.

No one knows
No one knows if schools will continue to take key worker's or not.
No one knows if they lose staff the school will be in the same situation down the line to open in the same way.
No one knows or can predict what will happen.
We have staff leaving in July and have not interviewed replacements yet.
Some teachers may be retiring or going on maternity leave.
You can have plans in your head only at this stage. Anything is possible at the moment.
Only thing to do is to ensure children are reading, learning and developing at home.

@alloutoffucks

Ahh, now that's a different concept entirely.

I agree that a vaccine/herd immunity approach may not work, as the virus may well mutate.

You would be immune to this coronavirus, but perhaps not the mutated strain.

Either both vaccination/herd immunity approach will both work, or neither will, but they are the same thing.

The more people act like idiots and keep going to the beach, going to get their nails done etc. The longer this will go on. Schools are still shut in China.

@alloutoffucks

...but we are all immune to the strain of cold virus that we have already caught once recovered.

The problem is that there are so many, and they mutate so regularly that we cannot keep up.