Worried about Coronavirus - thread 31

[Jenasaurus]

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@MurrayTheMonk I can't imagine how stressful this is for you right now.

I saw a carehome near me advertising for temporary staff on facebook (looking for people with experience and a DBS). I guess you're not alone in being in a desperate situation.

But how will the risk be any different in 7 days? Are they planning on coming back at all?!

At least it's only 2 days for that particular set, but this could be a rolling problem for months. I wish I had something to advise you with

Also, if they come back and your residents are still unwell, will they all just have to go off again for another stint of SI? Or are they planning on living in for 7 days?

The whole thing is stressful for everyone I know that. But it's not great.
Those living in hadn't seen the two potentially sick. And are happy to follow the county council advice that if they are wearing PPE from the get go (obvs before the alarm was raised no one was wearing masks so ran the risk of being infected), they will be fine. Plus they've been given two paid weeks off after wards to isolate if needed and rest as that will defo be needed!
But yes when they go home I've got another 7 days til my 14 day isolator staff come back (by which time hopefully no service users will be sick-they will have done their 7 days isolating and we will be back to normal). But that week looks impossible!!
And it all assumes no one else gets sick meanwhile. Staff or service user.
It's a mess!!

@MurrayTheMonk It seems like PHE and the local authority have put you in an unmanageable situation. What happens if you tell the local authority that no-one can provide care that week?

I told them on Thursday...no reply yet.
We are a Housing association with a contract with the LA-so we are on our own to a certain degree-they will need to sort their own services out before they look at ours.

Yes the PHE did screw us over. But to be fair at the time that was the guidance they had had from government. It hadn't yet been updated for care homes 🙄.

Good luck! I hope you manage to find a solution!

Thank you everyone. Sorry for the rant earlier. DH has calmed me down and arranged for one of the guys at work to do a shop for us. We are rural and don’t have any neighbours apart from an old grumpy farmer! Dd has recently moved schools so no school mums as friends. Compared to what some are dealing with ( @MurrayTheMonk) my concerns are pathetic. I’m off to bed now - again!

I came across this, which is interesting a company that has been modelling the virus and it’s reach. A friend involved in the NHS (stats) works with them them in London.

I’ve not had chance to look at it properly

www.edgehealth.co.uk/covid19

@MurrayTheMonk

I am in awe of you - seriously - my DPs Mum is in a care home with advanced Alzheimers (she no longer recognises us at all and cannot communicate) in our "Boondocks" - we don't have transport and she is a ferry ride away x Given out current circumstances we have no personal transport and are tied to our own locale with work and caring responsibilities. Today is her birthday - my DP has phoned - they have given her a birthday party. My Dp's heart is breaking, but we know that the people caring for her are pulling out all the stops. as you are for your charges, and for your staff. The level of helplessness is utterly critical. Forgive me, I have drunk pink gin and beer and I have been talking my DP down from utter despair for an hour, but I really want to say that what you are doing, with so little backup but with such grit and dignity, for your residents and staff is fucking medal worthy and deserves the highest level of recognition.

I'm going to back off from all this for a bit now - I'm in the danger zone where I will be no use to man nor beast if I don't.

I sincerely wish you all the very best, and wish I could do something, anything, more than I am already doing - peace and out x

@Calmonthesurfacebut Glad you've managed to find a solution. As you're rural, do see if your local young farmers can help at all. I know the ones around me are trying to get food to rural people who are self isolating (and if yours aren't, you could suggest it to them).

Not having any food you can eat in the house isn't a petty concern!

I do appreciate all your kind words x it's so hard for everyone-it's affected everything hasn't it? I can't get my head round it fully x

I agree!

Obviously the self isolation with a cough thing is necessary, and I'm not suggesting it's the wrong thing at all- but it's quickly brought a lot of services to their knees- because obviously a huge number of people at this time of year have coughs anyway.

Hopefully soon priority testing for key workers can be bought in.

Just saw this on my FB feed:

"I'm almost 46 years old and so far I have survived numerous media hyped events including:
4 X oil industry downturns, HIV, mad cow disease &, salmonella, I have lived through the IRA, ISIS, 6 months serving with the Army in Bosnia, Maggie Thatcher as PM, 90's rave scene , 2 motorcycle crashes, London tube station bombings, the dreaded poll tax and numerous nights oot in Union Street!

Coronavirus is just yet another over-hyped, media scaremongering episode in our time on this planet that we will all be looking back on in a few weeks time and wondering what all of the fuss was about.

Let's get this thing in perspective, more people will die in the UK from DIY accidents at home in 2020 than the government are predicting will die from Covid-19!

Be kind to one another, don't panic buy, follow the government advice and look after your family, friends and neighbours.

See you in a couple weeks when all this has blown over."

Ffs

John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch
NEW: Saturday 21 March update of our coronavirus mortality trajectories tracker

• Today we add annotations showing when each country locked down
• UK & US already have more deaths than when China, Spain, France & others locked down

Live version here:
www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads

Here are the latest case trajectories for major countries:

• US case-curve has overtaken China’s
• Italy-scale outbreaks remain inevitable for most countries. Lockdowns and test-and-trace are essential, everywhere.

• Read more about test-and-trace:
amp.ft.com/content/e015e096-6532-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68?__twitter_impression=true

And here’s the newest chart showing case trajectories in another 31 countries with more recent outbreaks. Some of the curves are alarming, in particular Turkey, though as ever cases are less reliable than death counts.

Live versions of all charts here:

Now some supplementary analysis, thanks to suggestions from @imartincorena, @hancocktom, @mrsmmartin, @neilcharles_uk.

UK is in real trouble here.

On current trends, UK could hit Italy’s death count in ~9 days. Italy locked down 10 days ago. UK is already behind that schedule.

And it’s probably worse than that.

Italy locked down in stages. It closed schools 17 days ago. It locked down its worst-affected region 13 days ago.

So: UK is already on a steeper mortality curve than Italy, and has apparently learned no lessons so is locking down more slowly

Other countries have been where UK, US and co are.

China instituted stringent lockdowns, many of which remain in place. Its case count has stopped rising.

Korea: enormous test, trace & quarantine strategy, which brought the spread under control.

UK? "keep calm and carry on"

We can also see it was ~10 days after China’s lockdown that its mortality curve slowed.

Countries are looking at daily deaths in the dozens and thinking "It’s not that bad".

Next week it’ll be 100s, and by the time lockdowns flatten the curves, daily death tolls could be 1,000+

Nine days behind.

Not 14.

Let's get this thing in perspective, more people will die in the UK from DIY accidents at home in 2020 than the government are predicting will die from Covid-19!

We deserve everything that's coming as a nation.

I don't understand the figures. Can anyone please help?

My local area is served by 2 main hospitals. When I googled it says that between them we have 25 ICU beds.

The population served by them is 748,295

If 80% get infected, and of those 5% need ICU... I make that 29,932 needing a bed.

I know this won't be all at once but even spread across 12 months that is 2,494 people as an average.

Am I missing something?

Matthew Goodwin
196 patients taken into critical care in England so far -106 in London, 139 male, 57 female, 132 needed ventilation machine, 16 died, 17 able to be discharged to other wards, rest remained in intensive care -Intensive care audit, BBC.

(Brief return) Most deaths not on ICU then.

If I were the government looking at those figures and what's gone on today, I'd be locking the whole country down tomorrow.

They thought we were three weeks behind. Then thought it was two weeks. And now it's saying 9 days...

Redtoothbrush totally agree
Needs doing now

Fuck me I am soooo worried now. Yes we need to be on total lockdown

And wasn't it only 6 days ago that that big Stereophonics gig was allowed to take place in Cardiff? I looked at those people all stuck together in horror tbh.

Red totally agree. REALLY hope they do.

Heartbroken to say it but I think a total lockdown is the only way now.

itsallwrong nope, not missing anything. Welcome to the horrible realisation of the reality that awaits us