Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

The link in the OP has 9529 cases but still 422 deaths.
I don't think its necessarily a case of "must be bad if we don't have them yet" there could be any number of reasons the stats are late.
Getting data from multiple sources, compiling, analysing and approving all takes time. And people. All it would take would be for someone in that chain to be off.

This says 28 in England www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-cases-map-latest-update-today-a9426421.html

UK numbers around 46? Rising sharply around the UK but dropping massively in England? Given the late reporting something feels off?

I think I'll step away from it today and check tomorrow, it's giving me a headache

Worldometer says 13.
Public Health England still has yesterday’s number.

Would be great if it really is 13.

Maybe they changed their parameters for reporting and brought them in line with Germany. I believe Germany attributes death to the comorbidity rather than Covid?

Well that would explain why Germany’s figures are so low!

No idea. Maybe the 13 is just the total for the other 3 parts of the UK, and England hasn’t reported yet?

Obviously we can’t be sure from a story like this (all anecdotal from family member) but a few pages ago we were talking about people arriving at hospital already very poorly and dying before the test had come back and the possibility of people dying at home having never been hospitalised/testing at all so I figured I’d add it. First article I’ve read about someone dying at home: www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nephew-warns-everyone-take-coronavirus-21746998.

Worldometer showing +43 deaths

Sky also reporting 43 now:

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Wednesday MARCH 25th

Total UK cases: 9529
New UK cases: 1452
Total UK Deaths: 465
New UK Deaths: 43

I've just done the two week compare to Italy. It's looking significantly like a flattening of the curve over the last 4 days

Thanks for the update and the comparison table.

How is the curve flattening when basically no action has been taken? Why hasn't the curve flattened more in places like Spain and Italy where they are taking dramatic measures?

Italy on 7th March: 233
UK on 21st March: 233

Italy on 8th March: 366
UK on 22nd March: 281

Italy on 9th March: 463
UK on 23rd March: 335

Italy on 10th March: 631
UK on 24th March: 422

Italy on 11th March: 827
UK on 25th March: 465

Our death rate has climbed at a demonstrably slower rate than Italy’s over the past four days, despite lots of people saying we were on a similar or worse path than Italy a week or two ago.

The number of UK infections has increased by 1452 though, which means we could get higher numbers of fatalities further down the line - especially if people continue to ignore the government’s lockdown.

Nevertheless, I’m taking this as another tiny glimmer of hope.

Sky news just broke parliamentary coverage and announced 46 more deaths of amongst ‘those who had tested positive for Coronavirus’.

Seems like weird wording, as if people are now dying without being tested first.

Ah now I picked up on that wording (same on BBC) but assumed they meant it was the number of deaths where the patient had tested as positive, but it wasn't necessarily coronavirus that had killed them.

The reason I jumped to this conclusion was another discussion about mortality rates in Germany - apparently they record the main cause of death (so eg. dying of a heart attack whilst ill with covid-19 would be recorded as death by heart attack) whereas we are recording ANY death where the patient happens to be infected.

I'm not necessarily certain of this position, but that was my understanding.

VirtualHugs That didn’t even cross my mind but makes total sense!

I think the test results are totally misleading as DD’s friends sister tested positive for CV but they struggled to get her tested 2 weeks ago her mum and dad had symptoms but weren’t even tested. They would only test one person in the household. All on the mend now thankfully.

I'm really pleased if the curve is indeed flattening, but I wonder why it is when it's not yet in countries that have taken much more drastic measures, starting from the point that Britain is at about now.

@BirdandSparrow :
DH heard a medical person/scientist on the radio today being interviewed.

He said that, for some reason, in Spain, there was a far greater resistance to antibiotics among the general population, than in UK.
He didn't offer any theories as to why that might be.

This is my theory, based on not much.

Could it be due to the fact that until relatively recently (about 2006 I think - I don't know) antibiotics were available to buy over the counter in some European Countries.?

In UK, antibiotics have always needed a Doctor's prescription.

Antibiotic resistance is a global issue.

Why does that have any effect on a virus?

Just flicked through my never ending WhatsApp chat to find out what was happening two weeks ago, to see if we might be flattening the curve...

It was really windy! And raining. I actually pulled my daughter from school two weeks ago tomorrow (she’s now been classified as ‘extremely vulnerable’ so pat on the back for me for being decisive).

Almost all UK deaths have been classified as ‘patients with underlying conditions’. Recording deaths by the preexisting comorbities seems like a good way to make your country look good from the outside, but a bad way to track the virus and plan for health service needs?

Has anybody else seen the dept for health and social cares case announcements? It's says today's deaths do not cover a full 24 hours. I looked at there 24th March announcement and they did it from 9am (23rd) to 1pm (24th) for deaths? Very confusing!

Why does that have any effect on a virus?

Depends on what the virus triggers in that patient? But generally if a virus takes a blow at your immune system you then become susceptible to bacterial infection too.
When my daughter was on immunosuppressants she had to take regular antivirals, antifungals and antibiotics as prophylaxis.

Once you get into a critical care setting, clinicians can be juggling all sorts of complicated drug combos, and sepsis is a threat to any seriously ill patient.

Has anybody else seen the dept for health and social cares case announcements? It's says today's deaths do not cover a full 24 hours. I looked at there 24th March announcement and they did it from 9am (23rd) to 1pm (24th) for deaths? Very confusing!

I hadn’t seen that. It suggests there might be a spike in numbers today then...