Worried about corona virus thread 27

[Michelleoftheresistance]

New Thread.

I will copy over all the links in a min.

Mortality rate in Italy is now more than 7% based on deaths to positive tests.

And at what point do people know they need to go to hospital? I know a lot of stubborn elderly folk who would probably just neck some paracetamol go to be with this and never wake up!

That estimate of 200,000 would assume just 0.1% of under 70s die, which is perhaps fairly optimistic in a NHS gone to hell. Plus perhaps 1-2% of over 70s who were not able to isolate themselves from millions of carriers.

we do really need China to reopen now and see the effect that has - whether lockdown truly works

Where the hell is our Prime Minster.

This is a crisis, people are scared and he’s nowhere to be seen!

#whereisboris ?

Every time I look at the news, another country is closing its schools, imposing quarantine and shutting down gatherings. We need reassurance,

I have a question, probably a daft one. If someone dies unexpectedly at home, will they also be tested for coronavirus?

Well, I've just spoken to my boss ...

... told him I was looking forward to hopefully seeing him in the flesh again come summer.

1,672 in ICU in Italy compared to 1,809 dead.

@picklemewalnuts - I understand your question. This is a statistical answer, so sorry if it feels a bit blunt...

In very basic terms, if 1% of the population (say 600,000) were expected to die in the UK without any pandemic, and CV independently leads to the death of 1% of the population (a potentially different 600,000) then 1% of those CV deaths, that is 6,000 deaths, would be of those who would have died anyway.

However, mortality from CV and mortality from other causes is unlikely to be independent, ie a much higher proportion of the CV deaths would be among those who old or otherwise vulnerable, and more likely to die anyway.

In my line of work (actuary), if we do see a big spike in deaths especially among the elderly in the next few months, we might anticipate lower numbers over the medium term (next few years) among that part of the population - because to some extent CV has accelerated their deaths which (on average) were expected to occur anyway in the next few years.

Apologies if this has been asked/stated previously. I don't have time to back track other threads.
Does anyone else think that CV has been present well before we were made aware that it was around and serious?
I am convinced I had it back in November. I put it down to a very bad viral. It was awful and affected my lungs and upper respiratory system quite badly (I'm asthmatic)
My DH gave it to me, he got it from a colleague (who got it from another colleague who'd just returned ill from Australia) I then passed it to some of my colleagues who passed it on too. Of course no one thought it was anything to worry about so continued to dose up with meds and continue normal life etc..
I am quite sure that I saw on the news or read a week or 2 back that America know it was present there at the end of last year but I can't remember exactly....
I don't know what I want to know really but it could be that some of us are already immune from this if it is the case but how would we know?
I have a GP telephone appt tomorrow. I will try ask him about it if I have time.

ETA: not because I think either of us is going to die. We're just both assuming we'll be on lockdown until then.

DH is already driving me insane with his gloomy demeanour which has lasted all weekend - he is WFH until further notice and it shows. The worst thing is my usual “just go out and do something!!” is not really possible at the moment. With me poised to WFH for a sustained amount of time soon too, I really don’t know how I’ll cope!

People are talking about a baby boom from the self/isolators but can anyone else see the divorce rate spiking after all this is over??! (Only partially lighthearted!!)

@Youngatheart00

Yes! Pretty sure my OH will be getting a divorce if he continues to eat our cupboard supplies unnecessarily.

I'm erring on the side of "total incompetence" rather than "the govt want us all to die".

Neither is particularly reassuring TBH, but it's more comforting to believe the first rather than the second.

The last thing I would be thinking of doing right now is bringing a baby into this shit show world.

Divorce? Now that's a possibility 😬

Roger Mosey
@rogermosey

Here’s a suggestion. A daily news conference at a fixed time with the government and the medical/scientific officers, and a commitment by the public service broadcasters to show it live on a main channel.

@danni0509
I'm assuming so, if they died with symptoms. If they rang 111 there would be a record.

www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/18306804.seven-year-old-boy-self-isolation-coronavirus-fears/

Widget yes, it’s terrifying enough that it’s out there running rampant but there is no designated pathway for monitoring and treatment. Just a telephone line that rings out and an online dead end.
We know capacity is going to run out soon (for treatment) but there doesn’t seem any attempt to give clear information about at what point do you need to be seen and how do you do that? That’s the most frightening thing of all.

the rumblings are starting and I suspect alot of people are feeling very unstable in most aspects of life right now.

They are, but I'm also seeing a worrying number, especially your get generations, who are apathetic. That worries me.

I don't like scaremongering, or panic inducing posts saying we are the next Italy. BUT - as a health professional, I can't pretend to not be concerned at the UK openly flouting WHO etc guidance with some vague mutterings of herd immunisation. WHO are the experts here and they are neutral, it's them we should be listening to IMHO.

I'm also concerned that many of the wider public seem mollified by the relatively low increase in cases (now meaningless) AND at a death rate that has tripled in 2 days. The numbers may still be low but IF the recent trends here continue, not for much longer.

@Angryrant55

It's the third. Wolves is a small city too. Population of around 250k.

*younger

Mirror Breaking News - BREAKING 'Ireland to close all pubs from midnight in bid to halt coronavirus outbreak.'

So our infection rate has conveniently dropped to 232 in 24 hours. Very well done Borris you may pop your feet up and have a pina colada... oh wait you already are

Basically it’s all decided. The government has decided the virus is unbeatable and the UK going to a have a Herculean task to keep the number of deaths in the tens of thousands. I’d say that may be possible if:

1. 60s-70s, also a high risk group, also completely self isolate.
2. 70s plus and those with preexisting conditions are able to effectively self isolate for 4 + months. No easy task in what will be plague land.