Just spoke to a friend in Italy...

[letsjog]

And I'm really concerned that people are saying England will follow suit.

I know a lot of people already know but it's hard to hear it from the horses mouth so to speak.

She's not allowed to leave her house and must have a permit to go shopping/walk the dog etc. They are not allowed to socialise with anyone outside her only company is her neighbour in her apartment block. She can't even visit her elderly parents in the next province over at a risk of 3 months in jail if she attempts to.
The doctors are having to basically make decisions who lives and who dies due to lack of hospital beds and supplies and are mainly prioritising the young, leaving the elderly unaided. She's saying it's like a war without the weapons.

People in England are saying this will blow over but when and at what cost?
I still hear people spouting percentages how the healthy/young/fit are most likely to be fine and they're just going about their day and even trying to book holidays.

Can someone realistically give me a best case/worst case scenario we are facing here?

DP is trying to convince me to keep the DCs off school even though our schools are open and trying to say we shouldn't see our parents for now too.

Best case scenario 1-2k deaths [ just a hunch on what i think would be considered a hunch]
Worst as they have stated is 100k deaths

I was under the impression Bojo wasn't going to follow in Italys footsteps because they were trying to achieve herd immunity. Or is this no longer the case?

Im keeping mine off until easter holidays it will escalate fairly quick over the next 2 weeks as nothing is being done and there will always be people sending there kids into school ill nhs are stretched at the best of times

I think it's called 'realistic medicine'? I've heard of this when they will save the youngest/fittest. What's more worrying is the pain you will be in before you die if you are not treated. I sincerely hope that pain relief is available. it's awful awful but how do the staff decide save the child or save the pensioner - what would anyone do in that situation. If you had the choice of saving your elderly mother's life or your child's life.

Based on reports this morning that someone has tested positive twice ‘herd immunity’ might not be an option

OP listen to your DH, remove your children from school and do not see your parents.

Things are about to change drastically and yes we will follow Italy, if not worse.

I'm in lockdown in Spain. It's shit!

@Ofitck
what are the conditions like in Spain at the moment?

I think we have to hope for the best and plan for the worst.

I'm worried that we seem to still be dithering when other countries have taken clear action.
Also worried that it will be worse here due to above dithering and our governments "plan". Has herd immunity even been confirmed as a viable option? Are people developing immunity?

Poland has less than 100 cases last I checked and they seemed to realise that they don't have the infrastructure or enough hospital beds to manage this if it explodes so they've gone into a promptly carried out lockdown to try and mitigate the whole situation.

Yet here we are being told to keep calm and carry on.

Worst case scenario around 3 million deaths.
That's 80% of the population, with a swamped NHS and a 5.8% fatality rate.

Note, this is the VERY worst case, but it is what you get from using the top end figures from our own government and the case fatality rate the WHO gave for Wuhan at the point its hospitals became overloaded. These figures are not made up. This is the actual worst case projection, not dressed up not to scare.

I am not saying this to scare people. I am saying it because we need to BE scared. We need to act and demand action. Because we do not need to have the worst case.

The BEST case is immediate action and 3,000 deaths.

Actually - 3000 deaths is probably unreastic. It would probably be closer to 10,000, as we might have a few waves. But a much, much more palatable figure.

Id anything is clear it is that science doesn't actually know how this will pan out.

We have threads about lockdown being THE option and others about it being unrealistic or cruel to lockdown anyone, the elderly, kids etc. How will it be policed, really??

Whatever a government decides will have far reaching consequences... and still it is likely that many thousands of people will die in each country.

I'm immuno compromised... I can't afford to stop working, I'm self employed. So I'll take what precautions I can and will have to carry on living and earning. I have no other option... nor do the majority of people

Let's jog this disease will be spreading like wildfire... And we are not testing people.

In Ireland schools closed on Thursday for a 4 week period..it may well be longer.Uk needs to do this as they believe children are carriers of the virus. All necessary precautions are being taken here and if cases continue to rise we will be locked down a very worst case scenario is being planned for. I have family in the UK and wish the same can be applied there. Our grandchildren cannot visit as they may endanger us.We receive a press conference every evening to update us on the situation and to issue any new guidelines ..I hope the UK will now follow suit..take care and look after each other.

What nellodee said

I would not be sending any child of mine to school.

how do the staff decide save the child or save the pensioner - what would anyone do in that situation

Save the child. I would have thought that it was blindingly obvious.

Why would we have better herd immunity than the people in Italy or Spain where it clearly is not just a case of most people feeling a bit rough for a week or two then life for them going on as normal knowing that they are now immune?

A failure to grasp that, at least for the next few months life needs to change fundamentally is going to cost a lot of lives.

Our gov talks about extremes. Sir Patrick said if we totally lock people down it will spring up worse in winter.
If we close schools we have to do it for 16 weeks.

Other countries are being far far more flexible in flattening their peak . Schools closed for 2 weeks. Schools with cases closed.. We are not even doing that.. We are fuelling this fire!

I imagine other countries will get lots of smaller peaks and we are heading for volcano himalayas style peak

If you look at flu deaths in the U.K last years was considered low with just over 1,300. That’s with the flu jab being in circulation.

So I guess that will be around a minimum figure. A bad year in in high 20,000. But obviously none of the awareness/ panic we are seeing atm.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839350/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf

She's not allowed to leave her house and must have a permit to go shopping/walk the dog etc. They are not allowed to socialise with anyone outside her only company is her neighbour I'm a lone parent, this is how I've lived for years now. Finding it strange so many people so scared of isolation when they are describing my life on a permanent basis.

Matt Hancock is terrified... I can't shake this feeling that something is going on in the back ground

Re herd immunity - Matt Hancock on Marr this morning said that is something Gov not concerned with, their priority is slowing the spread & orotecting most vulnerable. They'll be bringing in law to enable them to eg force infected people into quarantine, and there will be closures/quarantining introduced though he wouldn't be drawn on exact time scale. Well worth a watch on iplayer if you missed it.