Just spoke to a friend in Italy...

[letsjog]

And I'm really concerned that people are saying England will follow suit.

I know a lot of people already know but it's hard to hear it from the horses mouth so to speak.

She's not allowed to leave her house and must have a permit to go shopping/walk the dog etc. They are not allowed to socialise with anyone outside her only company is her neighbour in her apartment block. She can't even visit her elderly parents in the next province over at a risk of 3 months in jail if she attempts to.
The doctors are having to basically make decisions who lives and who dies due to lack of hospital beds and supplies and are mainly prioritising the young, leaving the elderly unaided. She's saying it's like a war without the weapons.

People in England are saying this will blow over but when and at what cost?
I still hear people spouting percentages how the healthy/young/fit are most likely to be fine and they're just going about their day and even trying to book holidays.

Can someone realistically give me a best case/worst case scenario we are facing here?

DP is trying to convince me to keep the DCs off school even though our schools are open and trying to say we shouldn't see our parents for now too.

Its quite simple actually.

We have a viral pathogen that is very contagious, no one to speak of
will have immunity to it.

There is NO vaccine and that will take some time to come about maybe a
year!

There is sod all in the way of treatment options some trials are under
way but thats going to take time.

To get herd immunity will mean a lot of people having the illness so
they will have antibodies to the contagion.

There have been some reports that people have had it twice but thats
"iffy" information as sod all is known as to how this behaves as yet.

Its going to disrupt the way most all of us go about our lives for quite
some time to come as yet.

So we either isolate from each other as much as possible to reduce the
infection rate, or stay in have no contact with anyone!, that way it
will die out of its own accord.

Not much of a choice is it:(

BoJo and his advisors need to start telling the real truth on this and
start managing as they ought. China's infection rate has almost stopped
and their recovered rate is rising by around 1500 a day so we can get
through it but they went about it in a draconian way rather like what's
happening in Spain and Italy.

Least BoJo and co are looking to better isolate the over 70's in a few
weeks and is urging the ventilator makers to go flat out on production
so some glimmer of hope!

I'm a lone parent, this is how I've lived for years now. Finding it strange so many people so scared of isolation when they are describing my life on a permanent basis

Is this a joke? It's not very funny, given the current state of affairs.

I'm noticing a huge difference in our town, NW/ Greater Manchester.

many kids already out of school, far fewer older people about, deserted town.
Those that don't have to go out are tending not to be out and about.
despite what gov are saying, people are actually thinking for themselves and doing what they think is best, and isolating/ cutting back on social mixing.

Nellodee speaks sense , and that is assuming it does not mutate or dna (or is it RNA) swap with our other regular corona viruses to become deadlier or make the young sicker.

The West End is pretty much empty at the moment. People are already voluntarily self isolating.

I'm in Andalusia too. I have not been out since Friday when the supermarkets were busy but still well stocked.

It's not a state of emergency yet, it's the level below which is a state of alarm. At the moment you can still travel to go to work.

This fear-mongering and panic spreading is more dangerous than the virus itself. Yes, we're all at risk but people need to STOP talking as if they have a PhD in immunology and start being KIND to the masses of vulnerable and anxious people who will be reading this thread. Panic and fear will NOT keep you immune to the virus, and neither will spreading viscous 'what ifs' and random death rates.

No one has any way of knowing what will happen, because it's a VIRUS. We haven't had this particular virus before and people need to take a deep breath and carry on as best they can. Be sensible and just accept what's happening.

(and please stop spreading rubbish).

Posted too soon.

Lots of official info here. english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-15/spains-state-of-alarm-the-key-measures-that-are-now-in-place.html

Local cafes and bars are shut. I'm working from home. My partner was in a Spanish state hospital last month and it was a world away from how the NHS seems atm and I have had a fair bit of experience of that recently.

small point (signal for logical sarcastic comment) so government thoughts are 60% is enough for herd immunity - right - so the mmr recommendations are that for herd immunity for measles is about 93 to 95% & polio is 80 -86% is it me but doesn't 60% seem to low for something as contagious?)

@letsjog - Poland still has an exponentially higher incidence of drug & alcohol-related deaths than the UK. A lot goes unreported because of links to crime.

BBCONEANDTWO always my child. love my mum dearly but always my baby

I haven't seen any example of rubbish on this thread or anyone purporting to be a scientist.
Rather, people in Italy (further down the lockdown line) and Spain (just entering it) telling of their personal experiences possibly in the (maybe naive) hope it will help others to prepare.

@justilou1 and what has that got to do with the virus?

They have said many times that herd immunity might be an outcome, but isn't what they are basing it on. We will go into lockdown, I would bet a lot on it. But as witnessed even in threads on here, people won't adhere to it just yet. Make it seem like you aren't, wait for the public en masse to be begging for action, and then enforce it. It's clever really, and doing so too soon will mean people get fatigued and when we are peaking will start going out again; we don't have the resources or the inclination to monitor everyone. Might be wrong, but we will all wait and see I guess!

I think it can be done here. They just need to make an example of a few people who break the curfew by locking them up for a few weeks (emergency legislation can see to that). Let them have their mobile phone in their cell so they can whinge on twitter for all to see and eventually you will get the populatio to comply.

In Ireland schools closed on Thursday for a 4 week period..it may well be longer.Uk needs to do this as they believe children are carriers of the virus

Everyone can be a carrier, not just children.

I presume those of you keeling your children off school are going to isolate them at home?

I presume those of you keeling your children off school are going to isolate them at home?

Very true, no point closing schools unless you're planning on keeping your children properly isolated for that time.

I'm keeping my children off and yes, we will not be doing play parks and play dates!

The main issue is that children don't get it badly but will almost certainly be spreading it. And more than adults because of close contact and poor hygiene. Previous illnesses have been spread by school children. There's plenty of evidence for this e.g. the slowing down of swine flu in the summer holidays (even with kids still mixing at tourist attractions, parks, beaches etc). That's why flu vaccines for children were bought in; more to stop them spreading it than for their own protection.

@JuggleBug my dc will be home from tomorrow and for the foreseeable, he is disabled and has asthma, history of hospitalised chest infections, we live fairly remote so will be getting him out once a day for a walk in the countryside until the situation becomes more serious when we will all stay at home and totally isolate. SEN school and all parents have been given the option to pull dc’s out without consequence.

I’d like to see this happen in mainstream so that schools wouldn’t have to close completely. Give parents the option to take their dc’s out if they wish which will help considerably with childcare for parents who have to work as teachers start to go off sick. Schools will have to close if teachers start dropping like flies, if there’s less kids a small staff would be able to keep the cogs running.

Typical stupid post upthread: "Some people get chicken pox twice just because a few people get this twice doesn't mean it's impossible to achieve herd immunity."

Er...we don't have herd immunity against chicken pox, even though it's been around for years. And even though a vaccine exists. People still catch it. And chicken pox isn't fatal.

@letsjog
So England is on lockdown that's great. What will happen in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland?
Will Coronavirus miss those areas of the U.K. and stay away from them because they're not English?
@AngelicaKauffman
i knew that was why you were asking but others seemed to think that it was unnecessary

I am very worried about not only the death tolls, which if left unchecked, could easily be as high as 3 million people in the UK. (ie 5% - rates are currently around that in Italy).

I am also concerned about the unknown long-term side-effects of coronavirus - it has been suggested that a significant proportion of those who survive have permanent lung damage.

Plus it's been suggested that it may cause male infertility by damaging the testes, as was apparently the case with SARS, which this is closely related to and as doctors in Wuhan have claimed.

It's all very well saying we can encourage the young to get it as they are not affected - but if they survive but have long-term infertility, is that something we are all happy with? Just to reach some mythical 'herd immunity' status in the population?

"The West End is pretty much empty at the moment. People are already voluntarily self isolating."

I was there yesterday. It wasn't the usual horror but it was very quiet.

"It's all very well saying we can encourage the young to get it as they are not affected - but if they survive but have long-term infertility, is that something we are all happy with?"

Another act of Nature to control the population.

I am British but I no longer live there and as far as I can see England is the only country with this attitude. Everywhere else people are taking this very seriously.

As far as I know Sweden is taking the same attitude as UK.

Here we have been on lock down since Wednesday, when possible you should work from home, schools/nurseries etc. are closed, but with emergency care for those who have no other options and are needed at work. Shops open, but you are cautioned to keep distance. Food delivery sites cannot keep up and you are queueing just to access websites.

Laws being passed with help-packages for restaurants, hotels etc. and help to those not getting wages.