Just spoke to a friend in Italy...

[letsjog]

And I'm really concerned that people are saying England will follow suit.

I know a lot of people already know but it's hard to hear it from the horses mouth so to speak.

She's not allowed to leave her house and must have a permit to go shopping/walk the dog etc. They are not allowed to socialise with anyone outside her only company is her neighbour in her apartment block. She can't even visit her elderly parents in the next province over at a risk of 3 months in jail if she attempts to.
The doctors are having to basically make decisions who lives and who dies due to lack of hospital beds and supplies and are mainly prioritising the young, leaving the elderly unaided. She's saying it's like a war without the weapons.

People in England are saying this will blow over but when and at what cost?
I still hear people spouting percentages how the healthy/young/fit are most likely to be fine and they're just going about their day and even trying to book holidays.

Can someone realistically give me a best case/worst case scenario we are facing here?

DP is trying to convince me to keep the DCs off school even though our schools are open and trying to say we shouldn't see our parents for now too.

Let's stop this rubbish of choosing between a baby and a grandma. It's not helpful.

That's literally happening right now in other countries. The UK is next. I agree It's not nice to talk about, but it doesn't make it less real.

As far as I am aware there is no choice between a baby and a grandma because the baby isn’t in any danger.

Olivers my point precisely.

Babies and young children are not dying. They are getting through it with minimal symptoms. Yes, C19 is scary and a huge crisis but it’s not the safety of children we need to worry about.

I saw this linked yesterday, trying to explain the UK 'delay' approach to this outbreak
Apologies if it has already been posted, I haven't RTFT

To suggest that being a single parent is akin to being on lockdown is at best obtuse and at worse pretty offensive.

In Italy initially, in non hotspot areas you were allowed to go out and have a walk etc. That has been curtailed because people just weren't getting it. Groups of friends meeting on the seafront and in the squares etc etc.

Now govt and health advice is to stay inside within the family unit apart from essentials. Taking your child for a walk isn't one of those. Most people in Italy are in flats. They're coping.

@Imstillskanking - it's not the reality. There has been no deaths in children under 10 and they are extremely unlikely to get it and if they do their symptoms are very mild. HOWEVER they can be carriers.

The tough choice for example might be between a generally healthy 35yr singleton and a 46yr old immunosuppressed single mum of 3 with a significantly lower chances of survival.

Regardless of the ages/conditions doctors are having to make decisions and allowing someone's mother to live whilst basically having to let someone else's mother die. It's horrific.

What terrifies me is the fact they are now only testing people if they're poorly enough to end up in hospital. Our figures will carry on showing relatively low compared to some countries due to the fact we essentially have to deal with it ourselves if we become ill! How can Bj possibly say we aren't at the point of social distancing if they're not routinely testing

They will be able to tell how far along we are just by measuring the rate of hospital admissions. The objective is to prevent the NHS from becoming overwhelmed, so they only need to know about people who actually require NHS treatment.

@Maryann1975 I'm a teacher and pre being a mum I would have done just that. We serve a deprived demographic and I would have absolutely been there for the children. However my youngest is now about to turn 1 and I would not put myself and my family at risk by mingling with children if the government deemed it necessary to close schools.

@lilmoopoo this is a very real concern. I am self isolating due to a cough and need to know how much of a risk I am to vulnerable relative, if at all. Not to mention, how can the government plan and make projections without knowing the full scale of the infection rates?

@NotDavidTennant that's all well and good, but maybe the general public might feel reassured about death rates if they had the full picture

Let's stop this rubbish of choosing between a baby and a grandma. It's not helpful

That's literally happening right now in other countries. The UK is next. I agree It's not nice to talk about, but it doesn't make it less real

Where are these countries that are prioritising children who are going to recover over the elderly who actually need the help.

It was literally on sky news this morning talking about countries refusing to treat over 65s and prioritising the younger.

I assume they are referring to hospitalisations though and not just younger people with mild symptoms recovering at home.

It was literally on sky news this morning talking about countries refusing to treat over 65s and prioritising the younger

I would assume they were referring to 40 and 50 year olds not babies and young children

It didn't specify. As I say I assume they are referring to hospitalisations, not just the young at home with a few symptoms.

Save the child. I would have thought that it was blindingly obvious.

There is nothing blindingly obvious about making such decisions - nor should there be. Not least because you don't decide to 'save' someone, you decide where to focus your medical care which is different.

e.g. children seem better able to handle this virus, so why would you focus care on someone who has a chance of fighting it off naturally? Why wouldn't you care for someone with less of a natural chance? Or perhaps the older person needs more care, thus taking up the resources that two other people might need so you might decide two is better than one. Or perhaps the child already has a life shortening illness. Or perhaps the older person is a criminal. Or perhaps the older person's family has already lost several members but the child's has not lost any; or vice versa.

They are shit, difficult and complex decisions with no right answer.

Interesting comparison of air pollution in Europe since lockdowns ...northern Italy highly polluted beforehand and still pretty high now..wonder if that would have any bearing on the high numbers there .