Omg. The next step in the strategy. And if we all stick together it may work

[Bool]

Next step in UK strategy. Lock down all the over 70s (and other immunocompromised - kids / adults) for 4 months. Lock them down. Then make it illegal to close schools. That means we gain immunity to the virus as a population and keeps the beds open for the unusual cases that are not foreseen.

I do have a grasp of history, thank you.

Deaths in the UK in WW2 450,700
Potential deaths coronavirus:
66440000 x 0.7 x 0.034 = 1,581,000

There are 3 options

1. do nothing - and risk unfettered spread of COVID19. This will kill a proportion of people who are old or have underlying health conditions. These people will die even if medical options are there fore them. It may also kill old & vulnerable people as well as a significant proportion of people who may have recovered if hospital treatment had been available.
2. Partial isolation of those who are vulnerable to it being more than a mild case where home care is a viable treatment - this will reduce the pressure on hospital care services. If you don't get it you don't need it. This will keep capacity for those people who are unlucky to get it and for whatever reason need additional care. It has the problem that it is not foolproof - some people will want to go out, they may have to go out for medical reasons or come into contact with people who have been infected but are showing no symptoms. However it will reduce the number of people who will catch it quickly and hopefully reduce the peak requirement on acute care hospital beds. It is an individual's choice unless as they have done in China and Australia introduce fines for those breaking the curfew. I suspect a good number will find a work around - and hopefully that is enough to give the NHS breathing space to reduce deaths. It does however appear to be contingent on immunity gained after infection to bring the situation to an end.
3. everyone goes into isolation all at onece- like in China, Italy and now Spain. The aim is eradication of the virus, itrequires whole nations to remain cut off for months at a time while the virus dies off from a lack of people. It assumes it does not become dormant and 100% compliance.

Personally I think option 2 is the most workable - even if not perfect and having a lot of assumptions surrounding infection vectors and social compliance. There will always be people who have special reasons for not complying with the ask, but they are in a minority and it will work if as many people as possible can comply. However it means that we can keep healthcare and infrastructure workers in place. Yes there will be individuals who are adversely impacted, but I think the impact will be far less than the other options.

@mathanxiety children get it with very mild symptoms. The point is not to stop the spread. That is not possible. The minute people come out again of self isolation they are at risk again. The point is for the spread to happen amongst those able to cope with it. And if people can’t cope with it there is more likelihood of there being a ventilator for them if needed. Then in August when a lot of us have immunity, the vulnerable can live again because the virus will be unable to spread.

unescorted There also isn't yet the evidence to say that 3 will work. Because this is prevalent in other places now, and easily spread, and often undetectable without a lab test (either no symptoms or minor symptoms) then it is likely that Wuhan will have more cases as will Italy etc when they reduce measures. Many more. They will probably get a second spike when they unlock (like we did with swine flu after school holidays), and it will also be brought in by people travelling from other places in the same way it got out of the bag in the first place.

When we have a cure. This is a war. Deaths will be comparable to WW2. Our resolution must also be comparable. ah, the hysteria mongers are out in force I see. MMM, now given the choice of being locked down and surviving with only the hysterical to keep me company when I finally emerge, or being out and about with the normal members of society.... think I’ll take me chances.

Also, there may never be a cure. Yes immunity will build and most people already survive anyway, and in time there will be a vaccine, but there may never actually be a cure.

This is the most sensible suggestion. Far more so than locking down the sector of society that is least vulnerable to illness. This is also least disruptive to essential services and business.

People do not understand the figures here. If we go for the whole herd immunity thing over a relatively short period of time, then at peak we will have over a million people infected at the same time. There will be NO healthcare for ANYONE. People will be queuing at hospitals, begging for a bed for loved ones. Body bags will be stacking up in morgues. Others will be dying at home, in front of their children.

I do not like to scaremonger, but when people talk about the worst case, that's what it looks like.

We need a total lockdown NOW.

@Unescorted well explained. Those are the options indeed.

Actually there is evidence to show that 3 does not work. There are already reports of increasing numbers in China, most of which are people coming in from abroad but it’s only a matter of time again until people who have not come in from outside infect each other again.

This is stupid!

I am a teacher and reliant on my mother for childcare (because childcare in this country is so expensive). She is very vulnerable to chest infections and would likely not survive coronavirus (thanks to all those volunteering her to die for the ‘greater good’).

I want her to be safe and self isolate. But it also means I have no childcare available. There are members of staff at my school in the same position with partners undergoing cancer treatment or immuno compromised children.

This policy would ask teachers to put their loved ones in danger to keep schools open.

This government is moronic.

You can call this scaremongering, or you can call it showing people WHAT they are fighting and WHY they are being asked to make massive sacrifices.

@StatisticallyChallenged yes correct. My worry too. China will get infected again.

China WILL get infected again. And it knows exactly what to do, how to deal with it, and will do it better and better on each iteration.

this will be done by the rest of us who won’t be on lockdown

But what people have been trying to say to you for the last four pages is that this is not a them and us situation and so your plan is not implementable.

The vulnerable and the less vulnerable are inextricably intertwined. Those living with and caring for the vulnerable are those that you want to get the virus to acquire immunity, thus putting the vulnerable at risk.

I’m not saying that care homes should not “lock down” to buy some time, but it’s not a real lock down because sooner or later one of the carers will be a Trojan horse.

@nellodee you still don’t get it. Sorry but I don’t know how else to explain it.

Also, as much as people are being critical of the government, they have been very clear that actually it will not be possible to stop the spread. That there will be a peak, and that measures are purely designed to try to control when that peak happens.

It’s not the op’s plan. It’s the govt.

lol, this is exactly what I said yesterday. Glad to see the government is finally issuing this very sensible advice.
If you are old or frail, there is a flu going around that might be fatal to you. Please take precautions.
Saw way too many old people wandering about shops/restaurants as though there's nothing to be worried about.
It's too late for a lot of people already. Remember, the numbers in the UK will resemble Italy's in 2 weeks and those who will die have already contracted the virus. It will take a couple of weeks for it to develop into a fatal condition.

To Wise

Children even those prone to infection do seem to be doing ok

Yes, the interconnectedness of everybody needs to be worked through somehow

I have one child who nearly died from asthma in the past, due to a virus, and two who didn't. Should i keep one at home and two off to school to catch coronavirus to bring it back home for her?! Is this actual government policy or do we have a monkeys at typewriters situation?

I really, really hope you are right. But I feel like Cassandra here. She foresaw the fall of Atlantis, but her curse was that no-one would believe her. Everything I have been saying has been exactly how others then feel a month later. But by then, it is a month too late, and so many lives have been lost that could have been saved.

It needs to be someone in power saying this. Not me.

@BelleSausage is your post for real?

Potential deaths coronavirus:
66440000 x 0.7 x 0.034 = 1,581,000

This is wrong. its 70 million x 60% infection rate x

This government is moronic.

Have I missed something, has the Government actually announced this.

It's in the Daily Mail, other tabloids, etc. but I must have missed the governments announcement.