Omg. The next step in the strategy. And if we all stick together it may work

[Bool]

Next step in UK strategy. Lock down all the over 70s (and other immunocompromised - kids / adults) for 4 months. Lock them down. Then make it illegal to close schools. That means we gain immunity to the virus as a population and keeps the beds open for the unusual cases that are not foreseen.

I have both parents pm chemo and dad is about to turn 70.

I'd love to think I could protect them both and have them locked away.

Truth is they'd hate it. I really don't think either of them would survive the cancer locked up and it's their positive attitude and getting out that's helping.

It's a no win situation really.

And before anyone says "but in 4 months time they can do ....."

My mum may not have 4 months anyway.

@alice02132354 correct. And the % will indeed be lower than 1% if we protect all the vulnerable from getting it and are able to treat the rest properly.

Link??

The education system will fall over at some point and become what some parents have treated it as for some time- free childcare.

If this is what the government are going to bring in them I am going to have to think about resigning. Other teachers with vulnerable family members will too.

This is going to be a total mess. A certain amount of parents are going to stop sending vulnerable children in or children with vulnerable family memebers. There will be teaching staff who won’t be able to come in and there is not enough capacity on cover agencies to cover them all.

Expect your child to be taught in larger and larger groups and the curriculum to become more generalised. Expect also not to be provided with work if you keep your child off because it isn’t government sanctioned.

I give it a month before the whole half arsed system falls over because of staff shortages.

@itsgettingweird I was saying to my friend yesterday if I was 70 would I rather have 2 months of normal contact with my kids and family or 4 months locked away, don’t know

@itsgettingweird you are right. This whole thing is a no win situation. :-(

My worry too. China will get infected again.
100% it will get affected again.
And U.S, Europe are locking everything down giving their population a false sense of security whilst destroying their own economies.
The fact is, they are still infecting their old people. People are just not getting it. YOU are a danger to your old folks... you need to be very very careful around them.
This should have been the first piece of advice given. In fact, my mum went into lockdown a month ago. We gave her lots of medicine, whatsapp her constantly. She can wander about her garden/ the park but we don't go close to her. Ultimately, if you care, this is what you will have to do.

BelleSausage at this point I think the quality of education, curriculum coverage etc has most likely become a relatively low priority.

If schools and childcare shut then for many the families the only childcare option will be grandparents. The number of teachers who us grandparents for childcare, whilst non trivial, will be lower than the number of people who will have to do so if other options are closed.

@Bool Yes

What do you suggest I do? All the nurseries in my area are fully booked. How do I isolate my vulnerable parents and still go to work with a pre-school aged child?

I’m going to try and help some of the older neighbours and people in our village by filling in my details and dropping them off locally and in our village shop:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-51880695

For the many who seem to be making political points, we can all show we Carr about everyone in society- there has never been a better opportunity to personally put your own values into action.

Look after number one?
Post about how terrible the tories are?
Or actually reach out to people near you who might need your help?

I know which one will actually help us all get through this

This is what the bbc says. It looks nothing like the OP is saying.

Coronavirus: Elderly to be 'shielded' as PM seeks to equip NHS www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51893736

Fine shielded if it’s more palatable.

‘kept apart from the wider population‘

That’s what has to happen

The 'OMG' you put on the title of this thread sums you up OP. This is another exciting episode in your internet drama.

You are talking about real people. I will fight to the death for my DH to 'clog up a bed'. He's as worthwhile as you are.

I actually think this is the right idea. We will follow guidance. But we will not be dismissed.

@Bool
Agreed rate will be lowered like this.
I believe the UK is the only country getting this right at the moment. I do think though that this should have been the first piece of advice given.

@StatisticallyChallenged

What I am saying is that the system proposed here (and I’m not saying that it is what will happen) would limp on for a few months and then fall over due to lack of staff.

There is already NO agency staff available. Last week we had to start combining classes. Except there are only a few rooms in school that can take more than 35 students at once. I already have 32 students in each of my year 7 groups.

Do you have any suggestions as to where we find the rooms to put 60+ kids at once?

And what happens once teachers start going out sick? If we’re all supposed to be staying home with cold symptoms then that is a larger part of the staff at anyone time.

If what is being looked for is childcare for essential workers then there are other ways to do this that don’t risk the safety of vulnerable students and staff members.

This is the itv version link

My first prediction, back at the beginning of the virus outbreak in the UK was that this virus would double every 5 days. It's actually every 2.5 days. Another way of thinking of this is that in 10 days, we will have 10 times more cases. And every 10 days, we will have 10 times more cases. We are perhaps, optimistically, taking little bites out of that multiplier with the actions we are taking.

5/3/20 - approx 100 cases
15/3/20 - approx 1000 cases.
25/3/20 10,000 cases (in line with Italy)
But this is where is starts getting terrifying, and no-one is here yet:
1/4/20 100,000 cases
11/4/20 1,000,000 cases

I don't even want to think about 21/4/20

No-one is looking a month ahead. No-one is talking about just what 1 million infected people will look like. And before anyone says, they won't all be infected at the same time, 900,000 of those cases will be fresh in that last cycle. Half a million people with pneumonia or worse, all at the same time.

I can tell you this. I do NOT want to find out what this looks like. If we have to lockdown for 2 years to avoid this, I will do it.

So what about those “oldies” who have carer’s in to help, who is to say they aren’t carriers of the virus or have gone to work as they can’t afford to go sick for weeks or months at a time. 🤔

Fev11 has a valid point

How many other essential workers are in a similar situation, reliant on the vulnerable for childcare? Lots? Then surely they can come together and work out a solution between themselves? Who else could step up and offer to help?

It's going to be hard, inconvienet and disruptive, but think how hard invonvienet and disruptive it would be to be planning your parents funerals

No-one is looking a month ahead

Do you really believe this?

Whatever the logic behind it, my 87 year old grandmother would rather be dead than locked in her house for 4 months with no contact with her family.

I am sure the government has visualised this. I don't think most of the general population have allowed themselves to consider what a million infected people would look like. And then 10,000,000 after that. This is what peaking in May looks like.

@Trooper59 I am sorry if I offended you with my language. I am happy however that you agree this is the right thing to do.

I strongly suspect that ratios will be relaxed across schools and childcare as an initial step which will be no fun for anyone. I think they will close at the peak, but for a few weeks most likely. Probably timed to run in to summer.

And who actually counts as essential workers? Once you start thinking that through it's a lot more people than the initial "healthcare, police" that is initially imagined.

For carers, it may be that they also need to be part of the isolated community.

Surely it's best to minimise the number of people effectively in lockdown rather than putting the whole community into lockdown?

This is likely to rumble for 2 years until international vaccination programmes are completed