Worried about coronavirus thread 26

[ofwarren]

Here is the new thread

Here is the link to the previous thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3846851-Worried-about-coronavirus-thread-25

There seems to be this big debate about whether we need to "lock down" society more, but we also have to consider the economic aspect, people not being able to work, worried about their livelihoods, childcare arrangements, etc. And there's also the fact that the vast, VAST, majority of people who are really at risk with this virus are over a certain age or immunocompromised.

So wouldn't it make more sense, if shutting down society at large is so impossible long-term, that we do more to isolate and protect those vulnerable groups? Set up deliveries, etc. so that they don't need to put themselves at risk?

BREAKING: UK reports 342 new cases of coronavirus and 10 new deaths, raising total to 1,140 cases and 21 dead t.co/eUoE2b20hL
BNO NEWSROOM

I think they might be testing practically everyone in hospital for another reason but has a sniffle which is still a lot.

So we are now 1140..... Fuck

"Shitting hell. So 7.6% of those tested in that 4500 came back positive"

They are testing everyone with any symptoms in hospitals so the proportion will be increasing. To some extent it will be catch up at the moment as some of the patients were initially in hospital for other reasons.

The majority of these cases will be from tests taken a few days back, when they were still checking non-hospitalised cases (albeit only if they’d traveled or had contact with a confirmed case). They were supposed to ramp up testing before they announced they were abolishing it in the broader community.

@AngelicaKauffman yes, we know.

Nellodee testing methods have changed haven’t they?

NEW: Britons should get ready for “changes to our way of life and what our country looks like”

— ministers say measures will be extended for months rather than weeks
— lasting from the end of March until at least the summer and “perhaps a lot longer”

t.co/9LZP2YDVT0

CNN Breaking News - 'Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp declares a public health state of emergency after his state saw the largest increase of coronavirus cases in a 24-hour period to date.'

@AngelicaKauffman People who are more at risk are not just those who you would traditionally think of as being immunocompromised- it also includes people with conditions like high blood pressure, diabetes, asthma etc- many of whom will have lives and jobs. Why should they disproportionately have to bear the costs of isolating for a long period?

The government's current strategy of 80% of us getting this, and 1% dying would result in 528,000 deaths- which would also have a huge economic impact.

It would be possible to instigate sensible precautions, as well as helping people financially, if that were the government's desire. But it's not.

Also, if ICUs are overwhelmed, that affects everyone, and young people are still at risk, both directly, and indirectly, if they are e.g. involved in an RTA and need ICU care. If their lives somehow matter more to you.

1140 and we aren't even testing anyone who isn't ill enough to attend hospital.

Jesus.

Benjamin Kentish - 'Government modelling suggested the number of cases would double every five days in the run-up to the peak. Instead it seems to be doubling every two days.'

Testing methods only changed on Friday (i.e. Yesterday). Given the time it is taking to process tests, I don't think today's figures can just be put down to a change in testing regime.

@TheElementsOfMedical Completely agree with every word you said. Felt like I was banging my head and then people such as yourself and also many others who are respected scientists have been saying similar.

So you'd need to "tune" your infection rate with a many weeks lead time. And we hardly have slack in the healthcare system to treat the population, as it stands

Chris Giles - 'For context - the 1,140 recorded cases in the UK is:

• 4 days behind Germany and Spain.
• 5 days behind France.
• 13 days behind Italy.'

Why should they disproportionately have to bear the costs of isolating for a long period?

Well that's what I'm saying, people would have to rally round to enable it. It is easier to isolate 20% of the population (or whatever the number) than 100%, right? Assuming the other 80% do what needs to be done to support those 20% (including financially).

UPDATE on coronavirus (#COVID19) testing in the UK:
As of 9am on 14 March, a total of 37,746 have been tested:

36,606 negative
1140 positive

Across the UK, 21 patients who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have sadly died. t.co/YEo5QOEGzX

Scrolling and can’t find this Elements post. Annoying me! What was the jist ;

How bad does it have to get before they close the schools/let us remove our children without penalty .
I'm so sad for the people who have lost their lives and their families and its going to get so much worse .

More details on the new deaths from the BBC
1 Wickham hospital, Buckinghamshire, man in late 70s, underlying conditions
2 Sandwell, West Birmingham, man in mid 80s, underlying conditions
3 New Cross Hospital, Wolverhampton, man in 80s, underlying conditions
4 Leicester Royal Infirmary, man in 80s
5 & 6 Barts, London
7 St Georges Hospital, Tooting, man in 90s, extremely unwell with other conditions
8 North Middlesex University Hospital, man in 80s, underlying conditions
9 London North West University NHS Trust, man in 60s, underlying conditions
10 Countess of Chester Hospital, man in 80s, underlying conditions

I think they are starting to slowly self-isolate those at risk. At the moment that is the elderly in care homes who have stopped allowing visitors and elderly told not to travel abroad. I think this will get stricter and those over 65 or with health conditions will be told to self-isolate but they are doing it gradually to ensure compliance. GPs and other medical appointments have been reduced and even completely stopped to prevent people at risk (unwell) catching it at the doctors/hospital.

I think for the normal, healthy population they will leave things normal (which means schools open) for now to let the mild cases build up to get herd immunity in the normal, healthy population.

I think they only will when they fear they lose popularity. But at the moment it doesn't feel like Boris is losing popularity and if he does it go to far right figures who Boris thinks it's easy to regain support from.

Only Iran and Spain have had more new cases today (France and Italy figures aren’t out yet though). Tomorrow our number of cases per 1m of the population will overtake Hong Kong. Given the difficulties presented by their links with the rest of China and how much further along they are than us I think that says a lot about the relative merits of our approach and theirs.

Hospitals (the ones I know of) upped their testing midweek.