I've lost all confidence in our leaders. **Title edited by MNHQ**

[Ofthread]

I'm freaking out. Why isn't our country doing more? I've lost all confidence in their abilities to lead. Did anyone see the government advisor guy with the dead eyes on the Channel 4 special this evening? He explained quite calmly that the measures would be enough and that they would 'flatten the curve'. Another guy was practically jumping up and down screaming 'You have to do something NOW, these measures won't flatten the curve'.

In common parlance, we say death rate meaning people who have caught the virus who have then perished from it.

But it is really important to note that the numbers you are quoting are not the death rate for the disease. If we knew the actual death rate that would be very relevant. Germany has a CFR of 0.2%. South Korea are testing everyone for the disease (unlike italy), so picking up people without syptoms, and their CFR is about 0.7%.

That does not mean that the actual death rate for the disease, in our population, will be either of these figures. It does mean that if we can get herd immunity while minimising transmission to the elderly then these death rates are achieveable.

I'm not disagreeing that this is fucking serious, but I think it's really important to be clear about what figures mean.

This hysterical flappy man, who I also saw, wasn’t even a doctor, he was some “Silicon Valley executive”

I’m amazed channel 4 were desperate and misguided enough to roll him out as some talking head. V irresponsible

I read somewhere earlier that they are ramping up capacity by ordering in equipment, freeing up beds from cancelling surgeries etc. Supply chains mean it takes time for things to come through the system

I don't know who said 3 million

That is the implication if the actual death rate were anywhere near the 7.2% of your title.

Do we know the cruise ship passengers were that much older? This disease is particularly dangerous to those over 80 and those who are already ill, neither of which I would expect to turn up on a trip like that.

Sixty-something’s, sure.

But everyone I’ve known to go cruises was actually under 50.

*on a cruise

Errrr 7.2% death rate amongst the infected is still pretty fucking high so I don't understand why the OP is being blamed for 'scaremongering'.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work

This is quite interesting. About herd immunity.

Yes Don Quixote, it says IN ITALY after it.

If it helps y'all to be Angry on the Internet then knock yourself out. I am scared by the government's approach and I came on here to moan about it, that's my main objective. I'm not a journalist or a source, and I assume that people have the sense to exercise caution when reading ramblings of any old tosser on an ageing internet platform.

4 out of 5 over 60, apparently. The 80% band is thought to the the highest - obviously not knowing true case numbers but the comparative numbers being quoted are 0.2% under 40 vs 3.6% in 60-69 and rising rapidly from there. So it would still be well above population average assuming that the ratios are roughly correct even if the actual values are off.

Worldometer is your friend here.

Italys high death rate is due to it having a much higher proportion of elderly residents than most countries, and because there are frequently several generations living in the same house.
Different countries have different demographics and social norms - so the illness will spread faster in a country where people hug and kiss each other on the cheek instead of shaking hands, and a higher death rate when there are more vulnerable groups living cheek-by-jowl with relatives who are bringing the virus home. You would absolutely expect Italy to be one of the worst hit countries.

www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-deaths-from-coronavirus-are-so-high-in-italy/

If it helps y'all to be Angry on the Internet then knock yourself out.

I'm not remotely angry. Why would you think that?

I am scared by the government's approach and I came on here to moan about it, that's my main objective. I'm not a journalist or a source, and I assume that people have the sense to exercise caution when reading ramblings of any old tosser on an ageing internet platform.

I understand. I'm pretty worried too. The people who don't think it will be a big deal are nuts. You are right to be worried about elderly relatives, but you should have some trust in what the medical establishment are doing.

Many people don't take the time to read and understand- they just look at the headlines and react emotionally. Hence why I think it's important to be clear about the level of danger.

I have enough scientific training to understand what the government are doing and know that their plan is not completely daft. They are genuinely trying their best. Anyone who thinks they know more than that (and isn't an expert in epidemiology) is wrong. Frustratingly there is little any of us can do except tell our parents to stay safe.

Gosh so much scaremongering! It's more scary how terrible some people are at interpreting statistics!

Italy also have twice the number of critical care beds. I suggest this might be a bigger factor in outcomes

And they are running out.

Why on earth do we think we are so special that we can do nothing and not get hit as hard

And we are still doing bugger all other than washing our hands to mitigate the impact.

Its miles beyond fuckup

It seems pretty clear that some countries have been able to flatten the curve, but we're not doing those things (yet). This graph from the FT is a day or two old, so the number of confirmed cases in the UK is shown at ~500. The important thing is the curve.

All the country's that flattened the curve imposed draconian lockdown methods to prevent the spread

That's a good graph. Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong are on track for the flattened curve. Others on track for the massive spike. But it could still be changed, and that is what the WHO keep saying. Why are measures taken by the Singapore deemed not suitable for us?

Because our idiot leaders believe in herd immunity and the rest of the word doesnt

No, it wasn't draconian apparently. That's a word that keeps flying around. It is just increased social distancing, testing, quarantine, contact tracing.

Guardian: 'The WHO director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said all possible action should be taken: “Not testing alone. Not contact tracing alone. Not quarantine alone. Not social distancing alone. Do it all.”'

The WHO have stated repeatedly that countries need to test as part of the strategy. We are scaling back testing. I want to know why. Why is the best advice being ignored by our leaders? This forum is full of people who can't get tests.

I live in Italy, 10 days ago we would never have believed that we would find ourselves in this situation...we took it all very lightly..now we are all quarantined,we can only leave the house to food or meds shop (1person per family),all schools,shops,bars,restaurants,public gardens,shopping centers etc are closed.....it can & probably will happen in the UK too & something needs to be done immediately.

For transparency, I’ve asked for the thread title to be changed. You make it sound like that’s the percentage of Italy’s population, rather than of confirmed cases. Don’t care whether you “vaguely” try to backtrack in any of your posts - that is a grossly misleading thread title.

I don't know ANY Italian households where generations all live together. I expect there may well be some, but it's certainly not the norm.
What is true is that Italian experts don't know why the Italian figures are so high. But it's not through sharing a bowl of spag bol with gran.

Why are measures taken by the Singapore deemed not suitable for us

I suspect that we will be in for very, very strict measures in a month or so, for about 3 months; the objective being to flatten the peak and prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.

The WHO director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said all possible action should be taken: “Not testing alone. Not contact tracing alone. Not quarantine alone. Not social distancing alone. Do it all.

I really think this is the biggest argument against the government plan- that other experts disagree so strongly. If the models are wrong and the NHS can't cope, then thousands more will die.