I've lost all confidence in our leaders. **Title edited by MNHQ**

[Ofthread]

I'm freaking out. Why isn't our country doing more? I've lost all confidence in their abilities to lead. Did anyone see the government advisor guy with the dead eyes on the Channel 4 special this evening? He explained quite calmly that the measures would be enough and that they would 'flatten the curve'. Another guy was practically jumping up and down screaming 'You have to do something NOW, these measures won't flatten the curve'.

Ofthread,

Boris is very keen to ‘level with us’ but he has no interest in telling us the evidence that he is using or his expected number of cases or how we are going to cope.

I was (once upon a time) a bit of a Boris fan but this has shown why we need at least a decent proportion of STEM educated MPs in the cabinet.

I wonder what Thatcher would have done or what Angela Merkel will do as this gets worse.

I know Larry, we definitely need some changes once all this is over. Hopefully the crackpot 'experts' will go and the government returns proper evidence-based medicine and science (as well as insights from the humanities) to their rightful places. We don't have academic disciplines for the hell of it. Policy experts seem to have diverged significantly from accepted academic standards & I hope it doesn't now land us in a really bad place.

This idea of 'crack pot' experts - why do people post this stuff? Unless you are actually an epidemiologist yourself? Or are you just someone who looks up information on the internet and then considers themselves an expert and able (with some authority) to label others crack pots?

I agree with you Paul

There's a real trend these days to label anyone who disagrees as a crackpot, incompetent or whatever. It makes it very hard to actually have proper discussions

I hope they start teaching economics earlier than they do given the posts about the ‘poxy economy’ on here.

I think many people think about the economy as something distant, abstract, irrelevant to them. They think about banks, traders, big companies and rich people not the impact on day to day life. That's not just a CV related observation as I had noticed it before.

Agree the economy us ‘rich people’
‘Economy over lives’

I don’t use it much now but I did study it at university, I think they should bring it forward. Such a big misconception.

Is

As I explained above, our government is betting on information from the field of behavioural economics, it is not evidence-based medicine. It is not evidence-based medicine or epidemiology. Shall I say it again?

I am an academic, I am one of the people trying to sound the alarm.

No they won’t be betting on just that. But it is included.

And I reckon they are getting it right re people’s behaviour.

Are you scientists? Are you experts on this? I'm not in evidence-based medicine, but I am in a red-brick academic institution.

Just because it isn’t the same method as the other two doesn’t mean what we do as a mass isn’t hugely important.

Look at Italy. People fleeing South, taking it to areas with worse healthcare. Spain, people travelling to Murcia and increasing rates.

Good they have included thinking on this.

The economy is increasingly technologically dependent. The richest individuals in the world all own tech companies.

The Asians understand this and value Maths/Science way above economics and sociology. Fundamentally you can argue about economics and sociology until you are blue in the face but, if you don’t make something someone wants, there is only so long you can keep going by borrowing from the future.

And, if you cannot read and interpret an exponential graph, you shouldn’t really be making decisions during an epidemic.

The Brexit argument is angels dancing on a pinhead. Meanwhile, via fair reasons and foul (plagiarism and theft of intellectual property) the Chinese can put up a hospital, fill it with intensive care beds and staff it with qualified doctors. We have had 4 months warning (until projected peak) and our plan....slightly flatten the peak and accept millions might die.

Let’s hope the Chinese send us an aid package. It could be their first test as the global superpower.

Their first test was stopping the virus before it got out. Or the same markets after SARS. They failed.

I'm not a scientist but my background/education/profession is based in statistics and economics (including behavioural)

But you'll note I also didn't say I was an expert - I discussed a) the tendency to dismiss people who don't agree and b) the tendency to dismiss the economy.

I’m just a punter on the internet like anyone else but same education and background as Stat

'I am an academic from a red brick institution' - then act like one and stop labelling people 'crack pots'

No-one has dismissed the economy. The economy is central. It is more likely to collapse if measures are not enough to prevent the NHS and other social systems from breaking down. At the moment measures are not enough - according to WHO

On other threads it’s a recurring theme absolutely

Untwist your knick-knocks Paul, it's just a way of saying that some of the government's 'experts' are from an experimental field.

That may be, ie unlike science, but it’s far better that they are included.

Marsha,

The economy depends on people willingly giving their labour in return for money. This only happens when they feel safe and cared about.

Economies are remarkably good at weathering shocks, confidence normally bounces back quickly and, with it, demand.

My hypothesis is that we would far better weather a large abrupt shock than a longer one with far more deaths.

Even if it is mainly the old and unproductive who die, I think there will be a major re-evaluation of people’s priorities and faith in government if we are not seen to be pulling together but sacrificing a slice of our population for short term growth.

Larry I don’t agree with how you are seeing it so I don’t think it’s a risk.

Ie I don’t think they are sacrificing a proportion of the population anymore than anyone else in the West is trying to weather a huge hit. They are trying to flatten the curve like everyone else.

Do agree that economies bounce back though.

Similarly I wasn't referring specifically to this thread but there are numerous posts on these boards dismissing the economy, and those who are concerned about it as heartless, money driven, not caring about people and so on.