I've lost all confidence in our leaders. **Title edited by MNHQ**

[Ofthread]

I'm freaking out. Why isn't our country doing more? I've lost all confidence in their abilities to lead. Did anyone see the government advisor guy with the dead eyes on the Channel 4 special this evening? He explained quite calmly that the measures would be enough and that they would 'flatten the curve'. Another guy was practically jumping up and down screaming 'You have to do something NOW, these measures won't flatten the curve'.

Do bear in mind that Italy has more elderly persons than most anywhere else!.

Not surprising its high!.

I can well believe 7%. Wuhan Doctors at the centre of the crisis were saying as much

Look at the closed cases 1,266 Dead 1,439 recovered.

Currently flip a coin whether you live or die.

Hopefully that will improve as less serious cases recover (possibly 3-4 weeks). Unless the health system cracks then it could be much worse. Remembering they have significantly more intensive care beds than we do

But herd immunity people herd immunity.

medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/coronavirus-why-its-so-deadly-in-italy-c4200a15a7bf

Seen this earlier. It might be made up crap though.

This is a ridiculous thread.

7.2% of tested, confirmed infections. There will be a lot more people out there in the community who have it, some possibly so mildly that they don't know they have it.

The UK reckons that we currently have 5 to 10 times the number of confirmed infections out there. Obviously whether the go figure is similar in Italy would depend on their testing regime.

If it is similar, this would give a death rate of 0.7-1.5% of infections ( not of the general population).

The trouble is we don't know these figures for certain yet- there's a lot that's still up in the air. However it's not worth creating mass panic over.

I don't like Boris and I don't find him very reassuring. But all I can do is hope that the experts they are consulting know more than I do and are giving them advice based on this knowledge.

Don Quixote, on point 4. the WHO stated yesterday: 'A shift from containment to mitigation would be wrong and dangerous.' Where are you getting this stuff from?

7% of KNOWN infected people. This is crucial - yesterday they gave the estimate here that they think the true number of cases in the UK was 5-10k (vs an official number of 590ish.) If Italy have an even remotely similar discrepancy that dramatically changes the death rate. The lower end of that range gives you about 10x as many cases as confirmed, upper end closer to 20.

Look at what using a number like that as the denominator does to the death rate.

Its not a given we're travelling the same route as Italy, but here's a little graph I've made up comparing the two trajectories on a logarithmic scale...

The UK plan is to keep the infection at a managable level, so our death rate is low.
remind me of the plan... wash your hands, go to the races and dont go on a cruise if your over 70

Btw Our girls toilets at DD school is out of soap and i cant persuade my vulnerable DS's TA to take him to wash his hands before eating...

A lot of our 'experts' are from the field of behavioural economics. It's not a rigorous scientific field.

x posted with canyousew cushions - one of our numbers is off but the principle is the same, the 17k number is almost certainly not the valid one to use.

It's correct that they won't know the true rate until it's over

its 7% of infected nmot of the bloody population stop scaremongering

Yes, of course - 7.2% of KNOWN cases. I don't know why people have to keep shouting that. We don't KNOW what proportion of the population will contract SAR-CoV-2.

okay, so 7% of 60% of 66440000 is 2790480

This article explains things quite nicely

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51858987

I would like to know how we are keeping this at a manageable rate?
1)Banning cruises for the over 70's
2)Self isolate for only 7 days with a cough or fever
3)Wash your hands
Please.... what about the hundreds of visitors who walked into hospital wards today as visiting continues as normal, some not even bothering to use hand sanitiser until told to by nursing staff.
Hundreds of people visiting care homes throughout the UK. How is this protecting the Elderly population?
We are not doing enough to protect the vulnerable, not even close. And I'm not advocating closing schools or stopping public events but it's a joke to suggest we are doing anything at all meaningful to stop the spread.

The WHO have said a higher death rate though, haven’t they ? 3.4 %or thereabouts ?
I think 1% seems highly optimistic.
China have shown the world that it can be stopped in its tracks, even when it is storming through like a wildfire.
The rest of the world has had China’s example, some are taking note, and some are not. I really don’t think we are doing anywhere near enough, and I am panicking, as I am a higher risk person with children, and I have , as we all do, older family members, and friends with health problems.
Hoping for her immunity, when they have no idea what level of immunity can be achieved , I don’t understand this. It feels as though the vulnerable are now collateral damage to get this hoped for immunity. How can vulnerable people stay home for four months or more ? No one has that much food ! ( or loo rolls..) .

Where are you getting this stuff from?

What stuff? I can't prove a negative. I am stating that there is no plan which would prevent most of the population getting covid 19 eventually. If you know of how that might be achieved, please enlighten me.

It's a current death rate of 7.2% of documented cases in Italy. Those are facts. That is the truth.

We won't ever know the death rate in the UK because we've stopped testing. Death rates in Germany are very low.

Yabvu if you had any confidence in our 'leadership' in the first place. (I know this is not aibu but you catch my drift..)

I made a graph too, MrsSlocombesPussy. There is no actual difference, just a 2 week time delay.

The UK reckons that we currently have 5 to 10 times the number of confirmed infections out there.

Almost certainly - my neice has all the symptoms but was told they wouldn't test her as they are only testing people who have had known contact with someone who's travelled from one of the foreign hotspots (Italy, China, etc) or who has returned from said hotspots recently themselves.

The Doctor admitted she probably likely has it and she's self-isolating. But anyone who's picked it up from an unknown source isn't being counted at the moment.

Twice now I've heard Italians on Radio 4 saying until the lockdown in Italy was the whole country many Italians were not taking it seriously, they would lock down all day then at night go out for "1 little coffee" or "a couple of beers"

Experts from regions with larger burdens have stated that social distancing is the ONLY thing that is working.

The WHO have said a higher death rate though, haven’t they ? 3.4 %or thereabouts ?

No. That is the case fatality rate, not the death rate for the disease. Several other posters have explained why, as have I.