I've lost all confidence in our leaders. **Title edited by MNHQ**

[Ofthread]

I'm freaking out. Why isn't our country doing more? I've lost all confidence in their abilities to lead. Did anyone see the government advisor guy with the dead eyes on the Channel 4 special this evening? He explained quite calmly that the measures would be enough and that they would 'flatten the curve'. Another guy was practically jumping up and down screaming 'You have to do something NOW, these measures won't flatten the curve'.

Totally agree Marsha.

This is what is making me furious about the UK's attitude:

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-update-testing-news-herd-immunity-who-uk-cases-map-a9402051.html

"The World Health Organisation has repeated calls for all countries to find and test every coronavirus case after the British government claimed the practice was “no longer necessary”.

Announcing the next stage of the UK’s strategy, the chief medical officer for England said on Thursday that only hospital patients would now be formally checked for the virus.

“It is no longer necessary for us to identify every case and we will move from having testing mainly done in homes and outpatients and walk-in centres, to a situation where people who are remaining at home do not need testing,” Professor Chris Whitty added.

The plan puts Britain at odds with international advice issued by WHO, which repeated appeals for efforts to track and trace all coronavirus cases on Friday."

Why does the UK government think it knows better than the WHO?

Jilly love how we agree on politics and economics

"The World Health Organisation has repeated calls for all countries to find and test every coronavirus case after the British government claimed the practice was “no longer necessary”. How are you going to do that though? Are you going to take the Iranian approach(here: [[https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/13/iran-told-empty-countrys-streets-shops-within-24-hours-500-die/[[) that everyone will be confined to their homes and tested, and put HM Forces on the streets to effect the confinement? Are there enough testing kits and people to run the results of the swabs to do the entire UK population?

It's all very well to say something must be done - but it's a virus; apart from draconian measures, which are not guaranteed to stop it, there is a limited amount that any government can achieve. What they are doing seems sensible til such time as there is a vaccine.

Belgium for example, seems to be on semi lockdown. How long can that last for? What happens when the lockdown is lifted and COVID-19 reappears? Rinse and repeat?

Arlene Foster just said that when schools close it will be for 16 weeks. Nicola Sturgeon said similar, as did chief scientific officer.

This seems to be quite far away from what the others are saying; Ireland has announced for 2 weeks so far and I think most others are saying 2-4 weeks.

Why does the UK government think it knows better than the WHO?

I agree with this. Concerning.

I suppose less testing will mean less spikes in official stats - could that be a factor?

We need to take some of these so-called 'draconian' measures just to slow down the spread in order to delay the peak and stop our systems collapsing. The WHO has been very clear on this: Test, Quarantine, Contact Trace, Social Distancing - all of them.

'Social distancing' is a much more helpful term here, and spreads less panic than 'draconian' and 'lockdown'.

There's definitely more that could be done on the social distancing front to try and slow it down more without hideous economic impact which they're obviously trying to avoid - not necessarily to stop it or to contradict the "herd immunity" idea but to spread that peak more. I appreciate the whole debate re that but just the social distancing side...

-I was just reading a post about Singapore and workplaces/schools/nurseries etc doing temp checks. That makes sense - I know they don't work as a screening technique at airports as it's too much of a single point estimate, but it would help to reduce the infected people circulating if people were sent home who showed symptoms.

-Require workplaces whose business make it feasible to allow working from home

-Increase SSP (but sort out the reclaim process first for businesses, as it doesn't actually exist yet!) so people actually stay home when sick

-introduce paid (reclaimable with an appropriate process in place) parental leave for those with symptomatic children.

-Allow those with children in non-exam age groups to keep them home without fines if they are able to.

-Restrict visits to care homes, hospitals etc to reduce risk to vulnerable

Because they currently are going for this approach they will also be in a balancing act of not pushing the peak in to flu season. If you are taking this approach then the peak needs to stay firmly in summer. I saw some estimates from an actuary yesterday which would have put it in June with current measures (it was showing as early May on the "if we do nothing at all" chart in the press conference on Thursday)

Italy’s case numbers and mortality rate are truly terrifying. If you use any kind of a lagged model CFR is well over 10%, maybe much higher (depending on days until death from test result).

Our experiment is looking crazier by the hour.

Only if you trust the case count to be complete though. I don't think it is even close to being accurate. They found when doing testing that some people are completely asymptomatic with this virus and many others have only mild symptoms and Italy is not testing everyone. There is no way the CFR is accurate.

You can't talk about applying lags to the model to arrive at a very high CFR without recognising its other weaknesses...

Statistically,

I agree. But 1%?

They really need to start doing a lot of random testing to find out.

I would like to see some random population sample testing, agreed. The Diamond Princess testing found that about half of the positive cases were asymptomatic although some might have then gone on to develop them. On the flip side they will have included pretty mild symptoms so the symtomatic count will almost certainly include people who would not have been picked up as infected in most other environments.

I live in a rural area and all my elderly neighbours are not leaving their homes. Is that not an option? That the more vulnerable stay in and less vulnerable people deliver foods to them until this calms down a bit?

I don't disagree with the governments actions other than I think those most vulnerable should be given special dispensation to have time off of work paid and their dc able to be withdrawn from school easily as a precaution.

I am an academic, I am one of the people trying to sound the alarm.

Well yes, that was very evident by the hysterical and inaccurate original title of your OP.

Given that the aim of the government is to prevent the NHS from being swamped, and the figures we have now, the projections of where we will be in 10 days and the fact there is a 10 day or so time lag between clamping down on the virus and seeing any reduction in cases...

... it has already failed.

Alexa, academics are allowed to panic and get hysterical on an internet platform too y'know ;)

Alexa, academics are allowed to panic and get hysterical on an internet platform too y'know ;)

Well if Ofthread you are an academic as you state then I would expect you to have better powers of comprehension than demonstrated in your OP when it comes to evaluating statistics.

Laughing at the posters on this thread trying to out-clever each other by citing their various degrees and academic credentials. Embarrassing.

Are we all —Spartacus— academics now?

Nothing I said on this thread was incorrect. I did not evaluate any statistics, other people did that. I have asked for this thread to be deleted as it turned abusive. It's a chat forum, it's not where I do my work.

I suggest people join their local Mutual Aid group.