I've lost all confidence in our leaders. **Title edited by MNHQ**

[Ofthread]

I'm freaking out. Why isn't our country doing more? I've lost all confidence in their abilities to lead. Did anyone see the government advisor guy with the dead eyes on the Channel 4 special this evening? He explained quite calmly that the measures would be enough and that they would 'flatten the curve'. Another guy was practically jumping up and down screaming 'You have to do something NOW, these measures won't flatten the curve'.

I would use emergency legislation, as many governments are already going, to make the safety and health of the population the overriding aim of all policy and enforce this using the police and army.

For how long? Until the vaccine arrives in 18 months? It's just not viable.

And in return, how many do you think will die?

No idea. Anywhere between 1 and 6 percent of those infected.

And how many would need to be at threat for you to endorse more radical measures?

To justify locking down the entire country for a year and a half using the army? Probably the level of bubonic plague tbh.

Because,

Do your worst case scenario is nearly 4 million dead and you would not lock down for that? Well, I guess we are just coming from different places.

18 months is not required, about 3 is. China is getting back to work already.

Just chiming in to say stochastic calculus is definitely relevant. I would be extremely surprised if the models they're running on this aren't complex stochastic ones accounting for many differenct factors and for the relationship between them. Using stochastic models will give them a distribution of possible outcomes rather than just best estimates

Everyone bar China and possibly previously SARS affected countries have left lock down too late to get the same figures as China.

That was in response to pp China back at work

The big question is whether China will get a second surge as it goes back to normal. I don't think we're far enough along to know that yet (not an expert on chinese lockdown!) and it wouldn't take many people still being infected for them to just start all over again.

Does anyone one know what got rid of SARS in the end? Did it just go eventually?

SARS was more deadly (10% CFR I think ? Might have been higher) but less easy to spread as people got very ill very quickly, and were only infectious once symptomatic. So they were able to isolate cases and shut down the spread and it died out.

@SmellyBeard Concerted action by Governments and WHO. It was easier to eradicate, but it did take concerted action including some lock down.

@StatisticallyChallenged No one knows enough yet. We don't even know if when you have caught the virus it can remain dormant in your body and you can get ill again at a later date.
Which is why the herd immunity idea is an enormous gamble. How can you follow a theory against every single other government and WHO, when no one even fully understands the long term implications of catching this virus.

I know we don't know that yet, although so far as I'm aware there is little evidence that you can get it twice. It's also likely that even if you can there will be a period where you can't (i.e. you might develop temporary rather than permanent immunity) and that period may well be sufficient to get us to the stage where there's a vaccine.

Herd immunity is an enormous gamble, but so is the lockdown plan. The other countries aren't far enough ahead to look and say "they've nailed it." They might not achieve much improvement in reality but end up with a more crippled economy.

There is little evidence you can't get it twice. There has been no research. Nobody knows. Just as nobody knows how many people will be left with long term lung damage.
Nobody is saying eradicating this virus is easy. It is hard. But every other government recognises they have to at least try to. Our government is just saying that is too hard, fuck it let everyone get it.

And if you are waiting for a vaccine, it makes much more sense to try and stop as many people as you can getting this virus and potentially dying, while you wait for a vaccine.

This might be a dim question - and apologies in advance if it is.

If a country locks down and the COVID-19 cases stop increasing and then stop - wouldn't it follow that once the lockdown is lifted, the COVID-19 cases will start again?

Or does a lockdown kill the virus? If so, how?

All out,

I think there is evidence that it is at least highly unlikely you can get it twice.

Apparently (and I am not a biologist), the Corona virus is (relatively) stable and does not undergo the rapid genomic shuffling that the influenza virus does. That also gives hope for a vaccine.

There are also antiviral candidates which may help treatment a lot and could come into play much earlier than a vaccine.

Again, all reasons to listen to the WHO.

I’m impressed you had confidence to loose in the current clown in chief and his puppet master. See how fucked we’re going to be after Brexit.

Chatterbug,

You are right, it will keep coming until the whole world eradicated it.

We do have a massive advantage here, though, in that we are an island. If we eradicated it, we would have to use quarantine (from still affected areas) and aggressive contact tracing for the few cases that crept through the quarantine.

Until a vaccine comes...

JillyHilly *You are being absolutely ridiculous OP.

Our government is doing a very good job. It’s a measured, transparent and evidence-led response. The Italian government’s response was not.*

Except that they will not publish their evidence and data, which has informed an approach which is - at best - eccentric when read against the best data we have so far. Their approach comes from the field of behavioural economics. It is not an evidence-based, properly scientific field. I will shout this from the rooftops. It needs to be out there.

Lovely,

For some, everything is about Brexit. If extra terrestrials attacked and were encamped around London, this would be the fault of the Tories and Brexit.

Do you really think that they forgot to label the Y axis (case numbers) on their chart?!

Chatterbug If a country locks down and the COVID-19 cases stop increasing and then stop - wouldn't it follow that once the lockdown is lifted, the COVID-19 cases will start again?

Social distancing cannot, alone, stop the virus. The WHO is saying it has to be implemented as part of protocol for protecting our health services.

Our government's approach does not come from evidence-based science. They will not publish their evidence so that it can be properly scrutinised. Experts and politicians, including from within the Tory party, have been calling for this. They are asking us to take a massive leap of faith with a discipline called behavioural economics, which is unproven and not scientifically rigorous.

That was my understanding too Larrygrylls - it seems to be significantly more likely that you can't recatch it or at least not quickly. Research is also suggesting this mutates very slowly.

And I didn't say I was waiting for a vaccine, i was meaning that it would be pretty unusual to have no at least temporary immunity. We can't shut the country down until we have a vaccine, it is not feasible.

Statistically,

I know you did not say it. You are speaking much sense, shame so few are listening.

Sorry Larry should have been clear, second part was aimed at a pp...