School closures lasting four weeks could cut 3% from the UK’s GDP, costing the economy billions of pounds, according to research being considered by the government as it weighs up the benefits and risks of shutting down classrooms.
Advisers at the Department for Education and No 10 are examining a range of options from complete closure of all schools and colleges in England, which would affect around 7 million children, to more nuanced policies.
Measures being looked at include those effected in Japan, where schools sent home individual classes and age groups when a certain percentage of children were infected, and Austria, where elementary schools have stayed open to effectively act as daycare for the children of essential workers. Belgium has followed a similar path. Other countries have closed all schools.
hutting schools would mean that millions of families would have to find childcare, causing gaps in the workforce as parents stay at home. That would worsen the economic impact and affect essential workers on the frontline: 47% of GPs in England and Wales are aged 30-45, the age group most likely to have school-aged children, and so would face a scramble for childcare lasting many weeks.
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The pressure to close schools has mounted as other European governments have enacted different policies. Over the past week, Greece, Poland and Denmark announced national school closures, then Ireland and France followed on Thursday, along with much of Spain, and Belgium on Friday, leaving the UK more isolated. Schools in Germany remain open other than in a few hotspots, although that is expected to change early next week.
Announcing limited new measures to tackle coronavirus on Thursday, Boris Johnson told a press conference: “We are not – repeat not – closing schools now. The scientific advice is it will do more harm than good at this time, but of course we’re keeping an open view and may change this as the disease spreads. Schools should only close if they are specifically told to do so.”
Government advisors believe that closures would have to be at least 13 weeks long to reduce the peak of Covid-19 by 10%-15%, and there are concerns that children out of school would end up socialising anyway or spending time with grandparents, who are at greater risk from the virus.
The advisers admit that economic considerations are an inevitable part of calculations. They have been attempting to model the impact of school closures on the spread of Covid-19, with mixed results.