Worried about coronavirus thread 25

[ofwarren]

Here's the new thread
I'll get Mumsnet to add the links later as I'm busy.

Not much @bercows
There seems to be a bit of push back from the opposition, questioning the supposed science.

NEW: There was a meeting of opposition parties with health ministers and officials this am. I’m told key points were:

-they want govt to better explain why there is such a big difference in approach from UK vs other countries.
-concerns of over emphasis on behavioural science...

-opposition parties are concerned over a lack of detail as to how govt will protect the elderly and vulnerable.
-commitment to work together

-In attendance at the meeting were

Helen Wheatly – Minister

Ed Davey – LDs
Phillipa Whittford –SNP
John Ashworth –Lab
Jeremy Corbyn –Lab
Shami Chakrabati – Lab
Ian Blackford – SNP
Liz Savile Roberts-Plaid
Column Eastwood – SDLP
Jeffery Donaldson – DUP
Natalie Bennet – G

Apologies, it’s Helen Whately, of course.

Another x-party meeting is to be held on Monday.

FROM LEWIS GOODALL BBC TWITTER

HMQ and PC have both cancelled or postponed engagements.

THAT is how we know this is really serious...

Someone in Birmingham has now died.

ACE Inhibitors - help please.
I'm on Ramipril - have just spoken to my GP who has heard nothing about the problems in connection with Covid-19.
Can some kind person link to the report that was posted - I've looked and can't find it.
Thank you!

@WhyNotMe40 i teach bloody adults...who sure as hell don't need childcare.......in a massive college setting - they won't close either. Tiny windowless classrooms. I am so so pissed off.

www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-coronavirus-patient-dies-three-17920659

Also Jane the alternative to striking is just all the teachers self isolating for 7 days for a cough.....what are they going to do send the police around?

Also behavioural "science" isn't science.

No details on age or circumstance given.

@ajandjjmum

It’s based on a paper in the Lancet

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8108735/Medicines-high-blood-pressure-diabetes-worsen-coronavirus-symptoms.html

So, today my school sent home a number of members of staff with coughs and temperatures. I don't know if they had missed the advice until our head emailed around this morning, or they just felt the need to come in anyway. I don't know if they sent any children home, but I do know the advice wasn't really widely shared with children today.

It's good they have sent people home, and gives me confidence if I get a cough or a temperature, I can stay home. However, the fact that people have come in this morning shows that these measures, if they work at all will take a while to have an effect.

Also, there will come a point where the school will have to close due to low staffing anyway.

So #BorisOut is trending on twitter. Not that it will make any difference. We are literally being left for our loved ones with illness or elderly to die.

Viral load!!
If that is why Drs in other countries died.
We are all f'd because
1 we don't know if our kids have it
2 this affects parents and teachers
3 noone here wears masks (parents/gp/hcp/)
---> we will all get this badly.

You can't self isolate away from your kids and even if you could its before they are sick they are most contagious.So you don't know to do it.
Much simpler than if you are 65+ not working and no kids at home.

As all the kids at school go about without even a clean 30 kids to a class that is a lot of virus.
They said pneumonia is more likely with higher viral load.
Drs and nurses etc will hopefully have masks on.
More teens dec get ill I think so even more so at secondary.

There was a pp whose DD was working in a French ski chalet... I wwas wondering if anyone had heard any news on France closing its ski slopes??

Apologies for posting this on a couple of threads, but I thought these were interesting questions, many of which chime very much with what I was wondering. Therefore I hoped some of the supporters of the government's strategy might have some answers.

twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1238425621375651840?s=20

Unlike all other countries, the UK strategy aims to build herd immunity by allowing the steady spread of #COVID19. The government argue it will block a second peak in several months time. Here are EIGHT questions about this HERD IMMUNITY strategy: (THREAD)

1. Will it impair efforts to restrict the immediate epidemic, and cause more infections and deaths in the near term? Evidence suggests people shed virus early, and those without symptoms may cause substantial spread…

…this argues for policies against mass gatherings, for school closures, and for strict national and local measures for social distancing.

2. Will it weaken containment systems (testing, screening, radiography, isolation)? China quickly built a robust nation-wide system of mobilised communities/workers for identifying cases promptly, isolating contacts + treating vulnerable people promptly to contain the outbreak.

3. Does coronavirus cause strong herd immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We have much to learn about Co-V immune responses.

4. Doesn’t this herd immunity strategy conflict with WHO Policy? After the announcement of this being a pandemic, Dr Tedros, Director General WHO, said “The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous.”

5. Shouldn’t we wait to see the China situation? They've contained the epidemic after 7 weeks of intense national effort. Will their strengthened systems not contain outbreaks quickly? What is their herd immunity? We don’t have serology available yet? It might be substantial.

6. Without an all-out national mobilisation plan for social distancing, are the UK government behavioural and nudge strategies really evidence-based to flatten the peak? Or simply based on models?

7. On the precautionary principle shouldn’t we go all-out to snuff this UK epidemic out, with national mobilisation at all levels, using all possible preventive measures (whether evidence is strong, uncertain or weak) and worry about herd immunity when we have more evidence?

8. Vaccines are a safer way to develop herd immunity, without the risks associated with the disease itself. Is it ethical to adopt a policy that threatens immediate casualties on the basis of an uncertain future benefit?

Spain's numbers have absolutely sky rocketed today, and their deaths look pretty high too.

Does anyone know what is going on there? Apologies if this has already been discussed.

I know they found someone had died of the disease a little while ago who would have caught it before the first case on the mainland was detected.

So they postpone the elections and yet we have nothing to worry about except wash our hands.

So the rest of the world is trying to minimise spread until a vaccine is developed to protect the vulnerable; we're just trying to get people to catch it in a controlled way until we become a country with super immunity?

Mayoral and local elections in England postponed for one year due to coronavirus outbreak t.co/4vArYSnKBd
BBC

Local elections postponed for a year.
#www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-share-markets-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

“In a Lancet report today, two authors from Italy said the percentage of COVID-19 patients needing ICU treatment has ranged from 9% to 11% and that ICUs will be at maximum capacity if that trend continues for 1 more week. They predicted that Italy will need 4,000 more ICU beds over the next month, a challenge given that the country has about 5,200 ICU beds.

In the hard-hit Lombardy region, healthcare workers have been working around the clock. About 350 (20%) have been infected, and some have died, according to the report. Italy's government is considering hiring 20,000 more medical workers and providing 5,000 more ventilators.”

www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/ecdc-covid-19-not-containable-set-overwhelm-hospitals

10% of patients in ICU in Italy. Just wow.

I think that is the measure of it Steala
Chris Whitty is a clever man but I am worried about this stance.

I think we knew about 10% of patients needed ICU care from China- so these are not new numbers, but is interesting to see what that looks like in a Western, developed country.

How do you just hire 20,000 more medical workers?

Also:

“In its assessment today, the ECDC said the risk of severe disease is moderate for the general population but high for older people and those with underlying medical conditions. Increased community transmission may exceed health system capacities in the coming weeks, it said, and countries should act now to step up hospital infection control and surge capacity.

The ECDC said estimates for hospital care suggest that most European countries could reach Hubei province scenarios by the end of March, with all countries reaching that point by mid-April.

The group urged member countries to implement social distancing measures such as cancelling mass gatherings and cordoning off hotspots early to slow outbreaks and give health systems more time to prepare for an influx of patients.”

can anyone work out/confirm the time increments on this please (it's the same graphic Boris & co used yesterday)

Production of the ventilators was ordered today by the govt.
They're also setting up bed space in the huge area used for a big exhibition thing.