Worried about coronavirus thread 24

[ofwarren]

Sorry everyone, I was watching that shambles of a press conference

Love how posters who are dismissing the experts because they know better

We're not dismissing the experts. We're asking why the experts from various other countries as well as international bodies like the WHO and leading academics in the field are being ignored in favour of a small group stage of British experts, some of whom have no background in public health or epidemiology. Why is there such a reliance on the psychology of behavioural science, especially when this leads to seemingly ridiculous decisions like not restricting mass gatherings of older people in case they get lonely or not keeping kids of school because they will get bored.

Italy have shutdown and they’re still getting thousands a day. Italy only shut down fully this week. Cases being diagnosed today are infections that were contracted 7-10 days ago, before the shutdown. We will have to wait till next week before we can see a drop in new cases, if indeed it comes

This is precisely why the WHO are saying early aggressive measures are vital. Delaying by one week can cause an increase in infections by 66%. Yet the UK seems determined to wait until the peak is almost here by which time our health service which is already strained at the seams will be collapsing.
Yet the British science is somehow better than every other country

According to Boris, at the moment only the person with the new cough, needs to isolate, not the rest of the household. He also said that eventually this would change to everybody in the household isolate.

@fedup21

The only mercy in this policy change is that they’ve finally dropped the travel restriction for testing.

HOWEVER now to be tested someone must be sufficiently ill to require hospitalisation.

IMO we are going to see quite a few people passing away at home because this disease can swing very rapidly from mild to drastic (per Chinese and Italian medical staff).

Tell your sister not to hesitate to seek assistance if it progresses to breathing trouble.

So 1.2 million avoidable deaths
They are not all avoidable. Let's just get some sense here.
People will die. We need to accept that

@MetalDog Thank you for that. My concern with using that model to estimate death rate is that 18th Feb was before things really got going in Italy. The numbers coming out of Italy seem different and I don't think we can rely on models that don't take them into account.

Obviously it is a really fast moving situation, and the data is changing all the time, but interesting to know what figures they are using, thank you.

If they lock down too early though won't it just peak again when people are free to socialise again?

What about China, could it return there once people are back to work and school?

Broadway is CLOSED: Governor Cuomo says lights will go out on New York shows due to coronavirus t.co/OMhifG5GP6 t.co/fMdc6QCb3R
Daily Mail US

@HairyFloppins Yes, it could- which is why they are doing slow, phased returns to work and monitoring the situation closely, and also monitoring people coming into the country.

I think in China, the will is there to go back on lockdown if needed.

I'm not sure about the peak too early thing being the reason for not locking down. They said they want more time to research-wouldnt that be achieved by lock down, if less people get sick now?
They said Warmer spring weather will probably do the virus in-also achieved by lock down now-less people get sick now, it's gets warmer when we come out of lock down, thus no further peak?

It just doesn't quite add up to me really...

@HairyFloppins yes I think that's exactly the point. You either shut down for the entire duration (6+ months) or you have to time it right.

Shutting down for a few weeks here and there seems pointless to me. You'll just get a big surge in cases every time you start things up again.

Even if you do shut down for 6 months you end up with a population with no immunity at the end which is not desirable.

Feel very confused by the announcement that mild cases are very infectious hence the new measures BUT kids get it mildly AND we're going to keep schools open. How does that tally then?

"Wondering how "new" is a "new" cough. If you've had a cough for a few weeks is that an "old" cough?"

"I've had a cough and painful chest since before Christmas (normal for me - I get a shitty one every winter that tends to stay put) - but am I meant to stay at home now?!"

Seriously, people come out with this tripe and everyone wonders why the government are having to be condescending and stating the obvious?

You all clearly know much more than the science guys so I don't know why you bothered to watch the press conference.

Shit has not even started to get real with the virus in this country and you're all acting insane already. You crack on and take your kids out of school, but I doubt you realise that if you do it now they'll likely be out until September. Hope you've stockpiled enough toilet roll.

@its2019ffs
Italy haven't reached their peak.

Yes, we are a few weeks off Italy's numbers. But the worst is yet to come for Italy, and then us.

People look at Italy and think that it's awful, but they don't realise it's only just starting.

Italy have shutdown and they’re still getting thousands a day.

I hate comments like this as other either ignorance or being silly.

Italy is currently in its first epidemic stage, in that people are contagious for 7-14 days, for every infected person they infect 2-3 or more people.... the math if going by the curve scale should see the numbers reducing in 10 or more days time.

@SansaSnark I would imagine they have become very good at dealing with and isolating new cases.

Are they banking on the warmer weather slowing it down. How is it spreading in warmer climates? Most of Europe is still pretty cold.

Right now, I'm feeling pretty confident in saying that I have a better grasp of the science than the version Boris and co are trying to sell us.

@SansaSnark

I’m posting it because it’s where the 1% figure comes not because I agree with it.

I do agree with the formula used just not the modelling they used to manipulate the figure to 1%.

If you run the formula (which is also on Worldometer) on recent worldwide figures the case fatality is 4% and rising. It was consistently falling from the original Wuhan only highs, but has been rising consistently since late February...

I think schools need to be given proper guidance. Children have come out of one class today where the teacher has actively told them they expect school to shut by Monday and that it may not reopen in time for their Sats. Those year six kids are stressed enough As it is right now that kids are crying in class ffs.

Personally I’m just glad to see all the “who’s not worried about Coronavirus” shitposting on MN has stopped!

I think the big question in Italy will be what happens when they come out of lockdown.

Shocking that parents aren't at least being given the choice to temporarily keep their children at home from school. We would happily do so until the summer if necessary, it's a few short months of home learning. In reality widespread closures are necessary immediately.

Confirmed in our local news that the second case at Trinity is a teenager who had been in contact with the diagnosed teacher. More Trinity cases likely to be confirmed in the coming days according to Cumbria’s Director of Public Health.

Yes Trinity is temporarily closing but what about the many local primaries that younger siblings attend. More than one local care home have closed to visitors. I'm very worried about the rate of spread here.

If we've to look after ourselves through this epidemic and get on with it at home let us do that.

I think we all need to take some responsibility for our actions. I'm shopping, but at quieter times. Sadly for a friend celebrating their 80th next week, it will be a meal at home, rather than a celebratory meal out.
Still attending business meetings, but driving there, rather than taking the train.

It's the whole 'unknown' thing that's so scary.

@CakeOnMe I would be interested if anyone has any stats on those aged

Youngatheart00 oh naff the fuck off

Right now, I'm feeling pretty confident in saying that I have a better grasp of the science than the version Boris and co are trying to sell us.

FFS - how on earth have you reached the conclusion that a bit of googling has given you more knowledge than people who have devoted their lives to medical science 🤔