Worried about coronavirus thread 24

[ofwarren]

Sorry everyone, I was watching that shambles of a press conference

It'll be Dom behind the unshaken belief in Behaviour Theory. He espouses it even though the evidence finds that people do not always respond to 'nudges' in the way intended.

Btw BearBehind, I would actually like everyone who needs testing to be tested. Perhaps our heroic Gov't doesn't want to have to admit to numbers. But as the mother of a DC who may be comprised, I'd rather know the exact numbers in my location and be able to make an informed decision about social distancing etc. It's not helpful second guessing.

Plus, as someone involved in a small business, insurance does not kick in without confirmation of testing. Without testing for confirmed cases nearby, no business interruption insurance. No insurance, staff may end up without jobs. Surely that is not helpful either.

The reality is that this should have a massive impact (although people won't listen IMO). Just in my family this means for us that me, DS2, my DSis, DN1 DN2 my DM and my DF all need to self isolate for 7 days

I do think they should have suggested things that are sustainable like working from home as much as possible. There is no reason people who can do it couldn't do it on a medium term basis. Even if we reduced the office based commuters and made offices less densely populated that would slow the spread.
A lot of companies won't do it unless they are told to.

So 1.2 million avoidable deaths.

If we close schools and ban large gatherings and say to employers they simply can't just force people to come into work if there's any way to wfh we could save 1.2 million lives - or something in that region.

There you go Labour, I thought you were unelectable but that's your next election slogan if this goes tits up. WHAT THE FUCK ARE THEY WAITING FOR?

Iran are digging burial pits 😱

Who is being tested now?

My sister who has developed a horrible cough, aches and temperature spent nearly an hour on the phone to 111 this morning who said eventually, that as she hasn’t been to an infected country, she won’t be tested.

WE are an infected country!!!

Let's go with Chris Whitty's OWN figures, in case anyone accuses me of scaremongering.

66,440,000 population
80% worst case infection
1% CFR

66,440,000 x 0.8 x 0.01 = 531,520

And again, for comparison:
Deaths in World War 2 = 450,700

Has anyone got figures regarding those in their 20s who have underlying health conditions such as heart disease? We’re constantly hearing about elderly with heath conditions, but what about those of us who are young but still faced with them?😥

Expert on Radio 4 half an hour ago said it literally means a new cough, ie not one you’ve already had for two weeks. If you’ve had it for one week..... dunno!

@fedup21 I think they said they’d start testing anyone With symptoms regardless of travel but not until tomorrow!

@IrmaFayLear

"Has anyone died in, say, Italy who is not elderly or without pre-existing health conditions? I read that the average age of a victim is 81 with health conditions."

Watch this doc on C4 news - i think he says 65 is median age , so half are above this age and half below.
That interview with Jon Snow is def worth a watch

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-people-with-confirmed-or-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection

Advice on staying at home. Might be worth sharing with your employers etc if you feel able to.

4% of 66 million is around 2.6 million.
4% is an overestimation at this point though. The majority of deaths in the worst case scenario won't be purely down to the coronavirus either, it'll involve the people who would ordinarily need emergency treatment and won't be able to get it ( in time) due to the NHS being overloaded in priority of CV cases.

But how do we keep the country running? Is it your suggestion we should all isolate ourselves at home for 6 months or more?

but we are not actually doing anything to achieve that delay!

We are

Have you been in a big city lately?

People are working from home more and the trains are much quieter

Awareness of this is making people consider things they wouldn’t have before which in turn helps to prevent the spread

I completely understand the logic in not locking down too early

If we do people will be bored of it just at the point when it’s the most needed

I noticed no one answered my question about how they’d manage if schools were closed from now until the next school year in September

That’s quite likely if we shut them now and the virus peaks in 2 or 3 months

wrt schools

• get onto the head teacher, pta wrt hand hygiene. supplying soap and paper towels. special assembly and posters about hand washing and coughing/sneezing into elbows...

Again, where is he getting the 1% or less from? I am not convinced there is evidence to support this at all.

He’s getting it from here:
institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html

It’s a link in the Action plan.

*I do think they should have suggested things that are sustainable like working from home as much as possible. A lot of companies won't do it unless they are told to"

Agreed.

Screw the LOGIC of not locking down early. The EVIDENCE says that the earlier you do it, the better.

@VivaLeBeaver thank you-I hadn’t seen that anywhere

I feel thoroughly depressed and resigned to my fate which is I most likely catching covid. They need the younger ones to get it to establish herd immunity. The models will show the focus will lie with minimising the effect on the elderly and immunocompromised (rightly so) and the rest of us need to establish the herd immunity to protect those at high risk once the peak is over (we still won’t have the vaccine etc). There is no way I can isolate etc for the duration as no govt suggestions to work from home etc and have kids. Think it’s time to step away from forums and news because we are sitting ducks and that is the plan (and maybe rightly so). They want us to get it but minimise impact on NHS

The only people they will test are those poorly enough to be hospitalised I think is the intimation.

Fine. It's bad enough that more people have it then we have capacity to test for. Test doesn't bother me.
Failure to take simple actions like banning big events and encouraging people to avoid unnecessary travel and just saying everyone who can wfh should, is what bothers me. I can't for the life of me see why those are bad ideas. I don't fully believe the pseudo behavioural science that seems to be the only basis for not taking those measures.

This dither is passed on to a lot of work places and the 'it's only a bad cold' brigade. It encourages apathy. And it seems that apathy is quite dangerous.

I think this is a pretty important part of the advice: If you still have symptoms after 7 days, the advice is not simply to return to normal.

If you have not had any signs of improvement and have not already sought medical advice, you should contact NHS 111 online at 111.nhs.uk. If you have no internet access, you should call NHS 111.

I would actually like everyone who needs testing to be tested.

Why?

We have limited healthcare resource and there’s no cure for it even if you test positive

Surely it’s better to leave the resource we have to deal with those who have significant symptoms and other illnesses rather than testing those who have mild and managable symptoms

I don’t understand some people on here. One minute moaning about schools not shutting, the next moaning they have to keep kids off school because they’re coughing!

Make up you bloody minds!