Worried about coronavirus thread 24

[ofwarren]

Sorry everyone, I was watching that shambles of a press conference

@PurpleCalm Given they are saying we are a long way away from the peak, then I would expect measures to still be in place by June, yes. However, if the situation in the rest of Europe improves, I guess the advice will change.

@Fourducksate

I agree. They estimate the peak to be 10-14 weeks away. We can't shut everything down for 4-6 months.

This isn't going to be stopped. We need to follow the advice given, use common sense, make our own judgement about large events and get through this as best we can.

People keep mentioning kids in school won't get it and yet, kids don't teach themselves or run schools themselves.

What about teachers! Cooks, admin staff, bus drivers, cleaners and the whole micro climate around each school?

Exactly that, what about teaching staff, cooks etc. Kids may not suffer badly but can be carriers ie passing it on to school staff. I just don't understand why more measures are not being taken to slow the spread

@SansaSnark - I thought as much. Sit tight and see how it pans out.

Realistically the schools shutdown will happen, but not until it’s deemed necessary, and will be for quite some time I expect, 2-4 months I’m guessing right now.

This fucker is going to drag itself out for months, I feel like it hasn’t even really started yet. Probably why they want normality for a little longer because they know what’s coming potentially.

Do we know what definition of a 'new cough' is? DH had a chest infection last week with antibiotics and is still coughing. Does he need to isolate?

Norway's King Harald, Queen Sonja and several government ministers in #coronavirus quarantine
AS News source

Do we know what definition of a 'new cough' is? DH had a chest infection last week with antibiotics and is still coughing. Does he need to isolate?

Expert on the radio has just said "any cough that is not the norm for you"

Here's a very useful graph from the WHO report in China, which confirms my thinking that the death rates given are for infected, not for hospitalised (since it includes the mild and moderate cases). So using your same figures, we get 66,440,000 x 0.6 x 0.04 which is just shy of 1.6 million people.

@FacingtheAbess It's fairly obvious that we (by which I mean school staff) don't exist to some people. And obviously none at all of us might have health conditions that might make a case even more likely to be worse.

Also, obviously children don't have families they might carry the disease home to.

To be fair I am young and healthy and if schools did shut I would happily volunteer myself for some kind of childcare duty or something else I could do to help the community. But I do know older teachers and teachers with conditions like diabetes and hypertension who would be more at risk.

I spoke to a concerned parent today (I was ringing her about something else) who has someone in the household in an at risk group. I really wanted to tell her just to keep her son home, but obviously I couldn't.

Anyone got the day by day Italy numbers please? I know they've been in before

What I don't understand is that he said we are 4 weeks behind Italy and then in the next breath said we are 14 weeks away from the peak. Those number don't add up to me.

Isn’t it because we are trying to stop the next 4 weeks going the same way as Italy and instead stretch the increase in numbers over a longer period

@JennyWreny my understanding of the 'new' cough was within 7 days. One of the MOs said it is infectious for 4 days so a week should cover it. If you have had it longer then the damage is done if it turns out to be cv.

It’s so confusing.

My husband has had an horrendous cough for the last two days and has still been going to work. His boss has now said that following Boris’s guidance then my husband is to stay away from work for 7 days.

But what about me and the children? Surely if he has it, we’d have it too, and so are we supposed to self isolate too?!

I can’t phone work and say I’m not coming in because my husband has got a cough.

I think the schools will shut at the some point as well. My dd's college was contacted today by PHE warning them of closure in a few weeks and to prepare. But they also don't want to close the schools at the wrong point in time.

So that wont be long then judging by Italy [tshock]

bearbehind but we are not actually doing anything to achieve that delay!

Lang, are you sure your figures are right? I was under the impression that the 1% CFR was across ALL cases, not just those hospitalised, and that once you were hospitalised, your chance of dying became much higher

Bloody hell that's why I said to check my maths. Schoolgirl error. Sorry.

OK, you're right. 1% of 60% of 66 million (free reign of virus in population, low estimate of how many catch it, NHS fully functioning) = 396,000
4% of 60% of 66 million is obviously 4 times that. so approx 1.6 million - fuck me is that right?

I thought 240,000 avoidable deaths was bad.

Can someone better at maths than me do this?

Here's us and Italy.

@QueenofmyPrinces at the moment its just your DH. They have said they don't want whole households to self isolate if some don't have any cough/fever symptoms since otherwise some families could end up getting it at different times and having to isolate for ages.

I am worried about the impact of not testing on healthcare workers. When these people who are self isolating get worsening symptoms they are going to go to a&e or the GP and won’t have been tested so won’t know if they have covid or not!

I'm not a doctor, but I think by a new cough they mean a cough that is due to infection, and not something you have due to a chronic condition- e.g. asthma.

However, if it started more than 7 days ago, then you probably don't need to isolate according to government advice.

I hope they will put the advice clearly in writing soon to help clarify things.

It isn't a cough that has popped up in the past 7 days. It is any cough which is not the norm for you.

I don't think it's your maths that is bad. This is why I'm getting so annoyed with people saying "We can't possibly shut schools, we can't possibly do this, or that"

We are looking at a worse case scenario of more deaths than both World Wars combined.

I understand about crisis fatigue and not wanting to take action too soon, but why aren't other countries like ROI thinking like this?

Sorry again if I'm being stupid! I just really, really want to believe that there is method in the government's madness.