Worried about coronavirus thread 24

[ofwarren]

Sorry everyone, I was watching that shambles of a press conference

@defthand but if they are only testing people in hospital then they can hide the numbers that show it is skyrocketing.

Is there actually going to be any way to keep a record of the affected numbers here?

@SansaSnark

rs.yiigle.com/yufabiao/1181998.htm

It needs translating (google can do this) but I'm assuming most data has originated from this - it's a crude rate (within 10 days).

Most people die about a month after first contracting it(The guy that first blew the whistle on it: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang?fbclid=IwAR0ESkww3cApGrAJibODrpb91wcNeOLVaF4pngELBhL6jERwkLggaCGfiMw ) - the serious symptoms don't show up until well in the 2nd week. The way things are going though, a lot of people don't get treatment until it's too late.

Some employers are arses so people won't self-isolate. People need cast iron guarantees that they won't be sacked and that they will receive SSP and that it won't be counted as part of sickness policies.

I think the 7 days does make sense. After 7 days you will be ok or you won't, I think.

I don't really care about school closures but am fed up with sports events not being cancelled which could easily be. Mainly run by volunteers, minimal loss of money. Just postpone them!

Right, so back of a napkin calculations.

The evidence (from China and Italy and Singapore and other countries) suggests death rate approx 1% (actually a range and slightly lower - but for the sake of argument) if there's a functioning health service and everyone gets a bed.

And 4% (again there's a range of estimates but for the sake of argument this seems a good reasonable estimate) if the health service under strain and have to refuse people.

So - say 60% of population catch it (again, could be 80%, under estimating for sake of argument) of which 1 in 5 need hospital - so that's 8 million needing hospital.

4% of 8 mill is 320 000. 1% of 8 mill is 80,000. So approx 240,000 additional deaths if NHS is overwhelmed. Ball park. Is that worth it? All those people could leave dependents behind. Is it really better for the economy for so many more people to die? Rather than do things (proven to work) to flatten the curve?

SELF ISOLATION QUESTION - my ds(4) has had a fever since last night. Dh and I usually tag-team it so I take a day off then he takes a day off etc, so that it's not too much on eithers work. However now ds has to be off for 7 days, that's fine we can manage, but do we continue to alternate or does the whole household need to stay at home? The other dc, dh and myself are all fine, and I'm pretty sure it is very unlikely to be cv(although there are confirmed cases in our town). Unfortunately I dont think my HR is in until 8am tomorrow at which point I will already be in work

the serious symptoms don't show up until well in the 2nd week

ok maybe not then!

Irma listen to these Italian medics, definitely not confined to 81 year olds

files.catbox.moe/3ns6c1.mp4

(Please do point out if my maths is wrong)

So if my son has a cough does the whole family do 7 days? Or just the person with symptoms?

@Lumene I agree with all your questions about the 7 day isolation period.

I am assuming they expect some people not to comply with this, and some people to only partly follow this e.g. not going to work but still going to the shops to buy food. But it would be very interesting to know what they have modeled.

I also agree that unless businesses are supportive, many people will feel under pressure to go into work regardless.

I know it’s wrong to say this but I’m so f*cking angry at China right now and their appalling hygiene and animal welfare. Look what they have done.

They have no plans to keep track of the numbers. If you are well enough to stay at home they don't need to know you have it. If you need hospital treatment they will test you.

I suspect there might be wider testing once they find a test that can work out if you've already had the virus/have an immune response. From the press conference it seems that test is not available yet.

@ScatteredMama82

I’m sure you’re right. :(

A German friend just messaged me to say their local schools may be closed from Monday and then I saw on WDR (West German broadcaster based in Cologne that it may be nationwide).

as most normal people were washing their hands before this lol

Not nearly enough, actually.

See relevant threads on MN. Many people don't even bother washing fruit that has been handled at supermarkets. Or wash hands when they get home. In reality, many people don't wash hands after going to the toilet and public transport is full of gut bacteria.

It's airborne and that is why it's recommended that people don't stay in crowds, particularly in enclosed spaces.
But handwashing is still an important measure. More AND BETTER than most of us do anyway.

I’m a bit unsure what people in here were expecting the Gov. to do?

Shut schools? Won’t make a huge difference to the figures, kids may carry it, but unlikely to be seriously ill. At least at school they’re not spreading it in the wider community. Or with grandparents. Also the impact on healthcare staff would be affected along with businesses.

Shutting everything else? Shops cafes etc, so many people will be going bust if they have a prolonged shut down, so soon. Our business is already struggling.

Large events? Just don’t go. If you are doing social distancing, doing hand washing etc. It shouldn’t affect you,

I’m sure if this doesn’t work they will go on again to the next stage.

But there’s certainly too much ridiculous anger and pontificating.

I need to leave this thread now, it’s becoming a bin fight, never used to be.

A few more cases have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. Just waiting for the spike in cases in about a fortnight after the festival.

The virus can survive in the air for 3 hours and on surfaces for 3 days. Will it get to the stage in the UK that it is in Italy when they don't even bother to assess anyone over 65 let alone treat them?

School trips abroad banned

Does anyone have any link to further information on this please? Just wondering if there is a cut off date. We're due to go on a trip in June not sure if school will make a decision or wait!

The Republic of Ireland has plenty to do with Northern Ireland, what with us all being on the same small island. Plenty of contact between people on both sides of the border. And yet the Republic are closing schools and stopping gatherings but Northern Ireland isn’t. Makes no sense.

Lang, are you sure your figures are right? I was under the impression that the 1% CFR was across ALL cases, not just those hospitalised, and that once you were hospitalised, your chance of dying became much higher.

It's airborne, washing hands will have little affect as most normal people were washing their hands before this lol

^ not true on either front - most ppl don't wash their hands & transmission is largely by droplet transfer.

Honestly I think a lot of you are living cloud cuckoo land; & as for praising Trump's actions ... the thread jumped the shark there.

Babyfairy-just the person with symptoms to isolate at this point.
Whole families around the person with symptoms will be told to isolate but not for 'a while yet'

Sorry if this has been posted.

twitter.com/clbolland/status/1238043173840183298?s=21