Worried about coronavirus thread 24

[ofwarren]

Sorry everyone, I was watching that shambles of a press conference

Evening all. I've tried skimming the last few pages having not seen much all day except ch4 news and Boris' defeffling at the post cobra briefing.

I'm getting the impression he's managed to increase anxiety without much reassurance. And Jeremy Hunt seemed oddly to be talking sense. Maybe he's got a fever.

I’m so torn. One moment I think it’s too early and he’s right. Then I look at his gurning face and panic again that the country is in the hands of someone who is utterly duplicitous.

The position of the peak is surely dependent on the timing and severity of the shutdown. Personally, I'd like to see it come in 10 days time, following an immediate and thorough shutdown tomorrow.

Other changes and actions will also have an impact on the scale and timing of the peak. If everyone self isolates with mild illness I think they said that would reduce the peak by 25%?

@nellodee I see what you are saying but how long do you shut it down for? Too long and people start to get restless etc but not long enough and we start all over again... I think even if he said we will shut down as of a certain date people could prepare themselves for a couple of weeks befor it gets enforced.. Although I guess this would lead to panic buying etc

Personally, I'd like to see it come in 10 days time, following an immediate and thorough shutdown tomorrow.

I’m sure the virus will do exactly as you tell it. 🤔

It doesn’t work like that

Do you honestly think that if shutting the country down for 10 days would make this go away that that isn’t what would be happening.

I do despair of the naivety of some posters

Now over 400 000 signatures on the government petition to close schools.

Boris has some big balls to hold out much longer. So many other countries have closed their schools. The science had better be right and not just the economics!

Ministers ‘behaving like 19th-century colonialists playing a five-day game of cricket’, says Prof John Ashton

This made me laugh

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/health-expert-brands-uks-coronavirus-response-pathetic?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1584026622

@Number12 I don’t think it’s balls. I think it’s a god complex

emsy86, I'm going with not long enough, and we repeat the process. I think we need to have a series of mini peaks, rather than a giant one.

@Number12 it all depends on what would cause more pressure on the NHS as workers having to have time off as they have no child care could cause just as big of an impact as not closing the schools.. Plus far too many people will ship the kids off to elderly relatives so they can still work!

Belgium closes all schools, bars, and restaurants due to coronavirus and bans all recreational events regardless of size
BNO NEWSROOM

Another one...
What makes these countries so different to us? Why are they all making the decisions to shut down but we aren't?

I'm not convinced whatsoever that our "science" is correct and every other country who has locked down is wrong.

Shutting down DOES make it go away though!

How many of you honestly think like nellodee ie, that if we shut down tomorrow it’ll be over in a fortnight?

Or how many of you understand and can cope with the fact that closing schools and locking down now is going to be for months not days?

That graph is from China. The peak of the blue graph is when they put in containment measures. The drop in new cases was immediate.

We're just not bothering to try!

Portugal closing all schools too.

What strikes me about these threads are the following:

• Some people are obsessed with dismissing other people's reasonable concerns. To what end? Perhaps to comfort themselves.

And

• Some people don't seem to accept that a public in full possession of the full facts (such as the true number of CV-19 cases) would be much more likely to independently adopt precautionary measures and be able to better calculate risk and probability.

If people knew how many cases were actually present in the community, they would be much less likely to adopt the cavalier attitude embraced by many.

Rather than comforting themselves, 'oh well there are only 600 cases and none in my community/town/city', they might be more motivated to take action being advised by PHE.

I think a lot of people are finally coming to understand what it means when you or your partner become ill and have to take an extended absence from work. The realisation that benefits aren’t sufficient and that many people struggle on them. One illness and you’re in the poor house. Perhaps Boris will rue this day more than he realises.

The peak was about a week after shutdown. That's how long it took for the cases that had already been caught to become apparent.

SHUTDOWNS WORK!

And yes, I'm shouting, because they work, and we're not doing it. The sooner we apply containment, the sooner, and the lower, we peak.

We are on UC, however it only tops up DPs earnings as I'm at home with little one - our full entitlement amount (if we had no wages coming in) would literally only cover the essential bills, we'd have nothing at all for food etc. When I say essential bills I'm talking rent, gas, electricity etc. UC isn't going to save anyone who loses wages...at all.

Plus we don't have enough savings to see us OK for months, a month maybe but not longer.

It's so bloody scary.

I'm currently chatting to parents in my sons year.

One has said she's pulling her kids for at least the next 4 weeks.

Another wants to but is worried amount getting into trouble (don't know they can enforce sanctions at this point)

Another struggled to get her son seen by the doctor but doctor said they wouldn't let a child go unseen. Doctor seemed convinced that schools would close next week.

I have a feeling that parents will start pulling kids spontaneously and that will make others start to seriously consider it if they possibly can.

In some ways this would make sense as it would slow spread but if its not compulsory it wouldn't be as disruptive.

None of us knows quite what to do.

Mother with party for 120 at the weekend is strangely silent. She's usually biggest gob in the chat.

Another

dr the chief scientific officer today acknowledged the likely number is at least 10 times higher than the positive result we have

What do we gain by testing and proving that?

@Bearbehind, why don’t you offer your services to PHE/WHO/BJ. You seem to know EVERYTHING

Even the US is working towards testing every case for free
twitter.com/RepKatiePorter/status/1238147835859779584

To be fair to @nellodee an Italian politician has said that the first 10 towns the locked down have reported no new cases as of today...