Gobsmacked by UK response

[Aspoonfullofjam]

Stay at home for one week if you’ve a cold (even though all evidence is that incubation is two weeks)

People over 70 don’t go on cruises.

WHAT!!!

134 new cases in a day and no action. 13 EU countries have closed all schools, another 11 partial closures but apparently no action needed in Uk.

Jesus.

Haven't rtft but some anecdata here.

Vulnerable family member 1. Very vulnerable. 2 different lung (unrelated) lung cancers last year. 1/3 of each lung removed. High bp. High cholesterol. Blocked arteries. Borderline diabetic. Autoimmune disease causing jaundice and liver damage. Discharged from hospital 2 weeks ago after a 2 week stay only discharged because norovirus hit their ward.

Lives alone but very independent. Told by her dd 'I will take you shopping so you not on bus, once a week to minimise contact blah blah blah'. Vulnerable person insists on going out every single day for bits, to socialize, see family etc.

Family member number 2, nearly 67. Not in best of health, smoker. Still going to work even though had a 'bug' for 2 weeks because she needs the money. She absolutely does. But also refused to consider not seeing family daily.

Family member 3. 74. Had 2 strokes. Gors out daily by bus. Refused to consider staying home cos it's all anover exaggeration.

People won't stay home if they don't want to. They need to be told. Problem is if they tell people now they will have to enforce it. Which will lead to civil unrest. Also tye economy needs as many weeks as possible to try and build up a reserve.

Even at 10k in uk it's still a tiny % of people.

Not sure if this has been posted but...

@Smilethoyourheartisbreaking
A) they probably will close the pubs in a week or two from lack of business if nothing else
B) the vast majority of Irish have taken the very strong hint not to “go socializing” amidst a pandemic. Guinness is available in a can, too. It seems the British have not yet done so, but give them time.

Sunshine1239 Thu 12-Mar-20 21:06:37

Why are people comparing us to other countries who’ve closed

Many are much closer to their peak. France and Italy both only closed at 2000+ cases

That's 2000+ confirmed cases in similar sized populations (all in the mid 60 million range) with similar demographic profiles.

How is testing going in the UK?

How confident is anyone that the UK hasn't reached the threshold that Italy and France have decided is the place to pull the trigger?

Oh and I have thought of more questions for supporters of the government's strategy.

The planned approach is supposedly based on rational science, yet it looks very different from what many other countries are doing. Does this mean other countries are doing things unscientifically and irrationally?

If we take the goal of 80% infected for herd immunity as the desirable outcome, does this mean that countries such as China. Singapore, S Korea which have controlled infection at below 80% of the population have done the wrong/unscientific/irrational thing and should have allowed more infection to take place?

How does delaying and flattening the peak correlate to allowing mass events like Cheltenham, Crufts, St Patrick's Day parade in Birmingham, and I think Glastonbury, to go ahead?

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

This is a long article but it needs to be read.

@nellodee, sorry but what does that mean? When there are the highest number of new cases per day which we'll only really know once the numbers start falling?

The problem is that I don't think we know how many cases there actually are as not everyone with symptoms is being tested. So the figures we have now aren't accurate anyway. Although I think they're going to increase the testing.

The 7 days quarantine from symptoms starting worries me, given Ive read that viral shedding continues for 10-12 days.

I think it's because asking people who may just have a cold or mild symptoms may really rebel earlier and 7 days is a more achievable goal. Esp when some people struggle with the concept of 48 hours after last symptoms for noro.

PoisoningPigeons - I'm with you, I just don't understand this (lack of) response.

But why is Boris's "science" different to the "science" that all the other European countries are being guided by?

The incidence, distribution and transmission of disease is always population/setting specific. What works in one population/setting to control an infectious disease may not be the same as in another. All of the above can be quite different even between settings which superficially look similar. UK modellers will mainly be looking at the data and behavioural science specific to the UK.

WHO is also not the be and end all. It has a lot of technical expertise (but remember, nobody has seen this disease before) and lots of people who are really passionately committed to global health, but it has made catastrophic judgement calls in the past. Most notably over Ebola in West Africa, where it is absolutely clear that its lack of early action contributed in a major way to the Ebola epidemic getting seriously out of control and causing massive suffering. Its credibility took a big blow, from which it has not really recovered.

Each country's government must do what they believe is right for their population.

We can only hope Nadine coughed in Boris' mouth. Lots. With vigour.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/how-do-coronavirus-containment-measures-vary-across-europe

Is interesting as actually I dont think we are that different to other countries we just seem to think that we are!

@HerewardTheWoke
Each country's government must do what they believe is right for their population.
If only they were...

Good questions poisoning pigeons.

Can you tweet them out to gov?

Hereward, where is your evidence that the incidence, transmission and distribution of covid is different in the UK to say, Italy? A graph of cases, side by side, is almost indistinguishable. I knocked this up earlier. We are the blue dots, Italy the orange. All evidence points to it following an almost identical trajectory.

Sorry, I should have said, that's us alongside Italy on a 10 day delay.

Nello,

Why would it be different?

Same virus, similar populations...

I would love to see the actual minutes of the COBRA meetings. Not sure I believe Boris is listening to advice rather than selecting from options offered to him.

Facts:
A) Likely 5,000 - 10,000 cases in the country already. It will rise rapidly.
B) Possibly 10% of those with the virus will need hospital beds for an extended period, so severe is this illness.
C) Most don’t know they have it until they’ve quite possibly already passed it to someone else
D) Experts in most other nations (with more far more beds available) disagree with the UK’s strategy and are still seeking to contain.
E) The vast majority of people are still sending their kids to school tomorrow rather than self-contain and at least limiting and slowing the rate of transmission.
F) The UK has gone mad.

Totally totally agree. Listened into the press conference totally expecting there to be a ban on large events and a mandate for home working where possible.

It's very frustrating. Dh works for a large financial company, who won't mandate home working until they have to basically. So in the meantime everyone has to keep going in risking getting infected every single bloody day.

I don't think we're at the stage of closing school and tbh I'm not sure why Ireland did.

But the response so far has been weak, I'll considered, and as far as I'm concerned an insult to our intelligence. And I'm not a leftie, Boris basher either.

I'm disappointed that we're sleepwalking into an Italy situation which the NHS will definitely not cope with.

" These measures require closing companies, shops, mass transit, schools, enforcing lockdowns… The worse your situation, the worse the social distancing. The earlier you impose heavy measures, the less time you need to keep them, the easier it is to identify brewing cases, and the fewer people get infected."

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

This is why they need to bring back good public information films. People are willing to believe/ deny anything and the lack of Government clarity just leads the public to think it's not that big a deal. The programmes that have gone out on TV have been woefully inadequate, and have been like a medical version of The One Show. The ongoing dumbing down of this country is appalling.

The incidence, distribution and transmission of disease is always population/setting specific. What works in one population/setting to control an infectious disease may not be the same as in another. All of the above can be quite different even between settings which superficially look similar. UK modellers will mainly be looking at the data and behavioural science specific to the UK

This is why you have a standing army.

I'm in Ireland and I"m wondering if we did our school-shutting too early because there is so much movement between the uk and Ireland, if we are just going back to normal when it's peaking in the UK, it will all be POINTLESS and then they'll think, oh well, we can't keep schools shut forever.

They should have liaised with the uk.

I wish I were in charge I really do. It hasn't peaked yet, so I'd advise all Irish people abroad to get home in the next week. Then I'd stop flights incoming. After incoming flights banned, then TOTAL LOCKDOWN FOR 3 WEEKS.

norway has done it.

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*Today 21:41 cheesemongery

We can only hope Nadine coughed in Boris' mouth. Lots. With vigour.*

I didn’t vote for him but nobody deserves that.

Italy and the UK had their first cases at the same time. Very different rates of transmission. Italians kiss on greeting and smoke like chimneys.

Thingd are different in different countries.