Worried about coronavirus thread 22

[ofwarren]

@usernameishistory is busy and asked me to start a new thread.

Please see post 21 for more information about coronavirus.

[Edited by MNHQ at OP's request]

Brits on coronavirus cruise ship 'spared quarantine' as they land in UK t.co/EvdPKyQxVH t.co/RD36dLmOrs
Daily Mirror

Washington state reports 99 new cases of coronavirus and 5 new deaths, raising state's total to 366 cases and 29 dead t.co/eUoE2bjB9j
BNO NEWSROOM

None so blind as will not see etc.

Or indeed, none so blind as those who insist on seeing the worst case scenario all the time

if I’m wrong, please can someone explain how Nadine Dorries went from first experiencing symptoms last Thursday to now being pretty much OK, despite testing positive, and how that correlates to our cases being wildly underreported right now

I'm really sorry I can't find my source for this. It would have either been something from the WHO, a newspaper, or the Lancet, but I can't find it anywhere.

I read it too - I don't think it's controversial, it's the course the disease seems to take a lot based on Chinese cases, I think, although I can't remember the exact turning point in terms of weeks.

🎶🎶🎶🎶

Juventus player tests positive for coronavirus t.co/xi4ATob9ec
The independent

Ah, thanks BigChocFrenzy. Only a week after onset until hospitalisation, then. I'm sorry I misremembered. So, if you add that to the 5 day incubation period, we have about 13 days worth of infected people that we will not find without testing. For reference, we had 12 confirmed cases 13 days ago. Many of the cases we will be finding in 13 days time will already be infected now.

New York universities SUNY and CUNY to go to distance learning: NY governor t.co/aYzle1NLQe t.co/ZA3X9PvSnv
Reuters

So who's the Cabinet Minister in Self Isolation?

I heard Raab was coughing today but didn't watch budget

It doesn't mean that people can't get over it sooner, just that if you're still ill and it's been only a week or so, you can't be sure you're out of the woods yet just because you haven't got seriously ill yet.

nellodee I think you and I have a similar interest in the mathematical modelling of epidemics.

Can I say how much I have been admiring your epic maths-ing

I'm really appalled how this is being handled.

I'm a frontline ahp and the way phe and NHS are handling this is abysmal
The infection control where I work is shocking. It really is.

I'm so torn
I have to turn up to work. But I am now worrying.
Not about me and not massively about my DS's as children have been coping with it well so far but for my parents.
They help out with all afterschool childcare and I have one immunocompromised since chemo and one asthmatic.
Without them I have no childcare and tbh I feel damned to totally lay myself open to this and then give it to my sons.
Then have them give it to my parents. It would be devastating.

But other than saying wash your hands and here is a surgical mask we aren't supported at all.

Thanks Sansa, it could have been that as well. I've got a pretty good memory for remembering where I read something, but I've just overloaded on information on this one.

And yet, in all my reading, I've obviously not come across the work of the wonderful experts advising our government.

Carrotcake it must be really awful.

I can only imagine how woefully unprepared you all are. Thank you so much for all you do.

Trump is going to 'address the nation' tonight about coronavirus. Not convinced it's going to be a) coherent or b) truthful

@Bearbehind Perhaps you could provide some evidence of the number of cases in the UK being under-reported. I can understand why you want to cling to the idea that most cases are really, really mild, but available evidence does seem to contradict you.

From the WHO's mission to China, people don't seem to recover within a few days of showing symptoms- it takes more like 2 weeks, and it takes a week for people to become critical.

There's some anecdotal evidence on twitter that if you are younger and healthier, it might take more than a week for people to develop the most serious symptoms.

I think Nadine is trying to be optimistic about her own situation, and what she tweets shouldn't be taken as fact.

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this already but India has suspended all tourist visas until April 15th.

Perhaps you could provide some evidence of the number of cases in the UK being under-reported.

Perhaps I can’t as I’m not the one saying that I think they are

This thread is becoming a bit bizarre now

Thankyou, GalOoopNorth. It's really interesting to follow this outbreak from a purely numerical perspective (I wish that was the only side of it we ever had to experience), and I think part of my annoyance at the government is that if they have got some hidden data, they're being absolute selfish nobs in not just sharing it with the rest of us.

There is a study (Read et al 2020) which suggests that possibly only 5% of the cases in China were identified. It does make it clear that the research has not yet been peer reviewed.

It is normal in an epidemic that many cases are not reported

It is impossible to test more than a small fraction of the population and some people would experience mild or no symptoms with COVID-19,
while others won't report unless they become seriously ill, because of the financial loss they would suffer

Prof Neil Ferguson, Imperial College London (epidemiologist)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NeilFergusonn_(epidemiologist)

"Ferguson and his team estimated that detected cases of COVID-19 have significantly underestimated the actual spread of the disease in China.

[21][22][23] In an interview released by Imperial College, he estimated that only 10% of cases were being detected in China.[23]
.....
In the same month,
the BBC news reported that Ferguson calculates that only one in three cases coming into the UK was being detected [24]

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-schools-alert-month-long-21677758.amp?__twitter_impression=true
Teachers have been told to prepare ‘home-learning packs’ for students during an expected MONTH-LONG coronavirus-enforced Easter break.

Schools across the country were put on alert tonight that they might need to shut their doors for a fortnight, the Mirror can reveal

Daily Mirror

Fur it’s from the Oval Office so let’s hope he takes a serious tone. If he does then it may sway BoJo to act.

@Bearbehind could you explain what you're trying to say here then, as I seem to have got the wrong end of the stick.

if I’m wrong, please can someone explain how Nadine Dorries went from first experiencing symptoms last Thursday to now being pretty much OK, despite testing positive, and how that correlates to our cases being wildly underreported right now

I think the misunderstanding comes from you quoting someone saying

"If there is massive underreporting, then it means that there must be a lot more mild cases" and agreeing with it, without then following on with "since I don't think this is the case, I don't believe there is massive underreporting."

If this is what you meant, then it is totally not what I got from your post.