Worried about coronavirus thread 22

[ofwarren]

@usernameishistory is busy and asked me to start a new thread.

Please see post 21 for more information about coronavirus.

[Edited by MNHQ at OP's request]

@FacingtheAbess and whether it stays there is another question.

The article says schools should be closed on a community based decision not a nationwide one which I believe to be true

@Michelleoftheresistance it is what they are doing. They have as much said so. Doctors are saying so. It's shit and people will die but they are playing a numbers game. They have already said we need to protect the elderly and people with underlying conditions. I'm sure that within the next couple of days they will tell elderly people to self isolate.

Michelle the problem is we would all face sacrifice, because we will all suffer if we can't access basic medial care at peak.

If we can't get to a doctor for any condition that would then spiral out of control.

In Germany they DO close schools for a deep clean after a case. They don't hide it from parents and then shovel everyone back in again the next day except those sitting right next to the person.

In the US, many universities have stopped face to face teaching sessions and are running online only (e.g. Berkeley). I favour this for the rest of this term myself, it's only two weeks and they can still keep campuses open for those that live on them or need to access the computers (although the vast majority do have them, that's the only way the uni communicates with students).

Schools in Madrid are closing immediately for two weeks as they are a hot spot. Pretty sure Seattle has just done the same.

It is not true they are doing more or less nothing! It's just not full school closure over the whole country and we don't need to do that either, we could use some of these strategies or other ones.

@MangePasTesOnglesVilain sorry, I'm a bit confused. When you say "they" do you mean the government or other posters?

*Your article says closing schools before there is a case is the most powerful measure there is because not only do dc stop mixing, so do teaches, cleaners, admin staff,parents.

Not forgetting all the passengers and drivers who come into contact with kids who travel by buses and train and taxi to and from school.

I'm not saying that study is at all conclusive , I'm saying it's vague enough to be the evidence they are alluding to.

I am afraid I cannot find the precise piece I read this from. The terms I would use to search it are just too common. What I have read, and someone else might remember reading the same thing, was something along the lines of there being a point at around 2 weeks after symptom onset when people either started recovering, or started getting much worse. So, you have your week or so of incubation, then you have a couple of weeks of "normal" flu, and only then do you either start to get better, or start to get worse.

I'm really sorry I can't find my source for this. It would have either been something from the WHO, a newspaper, or the Lancet, but I can't find it anywhere.

Some authorities have their pandemic planning plans online, but they are quite a scary read.

The Government are not really trying to stop the spread ... yet. They have said we should all wash hands (doesn't affect the economy) but that we need to wait for the right time to impose social distancing measures (will almost certainly tank the economy) to have the maximum effect on flattering the curve and also ensuring some level of herd immunity, and they are being guided by scientists (and I expect mathematical modelling) as to when that time will be.

'They' is The government. They are always they, we are we or us

nellodee does the fact you can’t find any evidence of your assertion, despite hunting for it, not tell you something? 🤔

My hairdresser is a single mum working from home in her living room, just returned from Italy this week and has put up a post saying she won't charge if you chose to cancel, she has no symptoms so carrying on as normal.
Without any support for school run or bills I know it must be a tough decision but it's really grating that no one is taking this seriously.

Yes. It tells me there have been too many articles with the words "weeks, symptoms, onset, coronavirus, recovery, worse" for me to sift through.

It was from one of the Wuhan papers

#Panama orders short-term closure of all schools due to #coronavirus t.co/Emm64jQajK
Reuters

Yes. It tells me there have been too many articles with the words "weeks, symptoms, onset, coronavirus, recovery, worse" for me to sift through.

No, it should tell you what you are saying is unfounded

You wouldn’t have to wade through hundreds of google options if it was a widely proved theory

It was a scientific paper, paraphrased here

Harvard epidemiologist on school closures:

DER SPIEGEL: Japan closed schools nationwide, Italy closed its universities. Is that a good public health measure?

Lipsitch: It's really hard to know. We have never dealt with an epidemic where the role of children was so unclear. Most infected kids don’t show symptoms, but we don’t know if they are still infectious. Closing schools countrywide even where there aren’t a lot of cases seems to be a measure that is hard to sustain. But in places where we saw community spread, it definitely makes sense.

Source: www.spiegel.de/international/world/i-don-t-think-the-virus-can-be-stopped-anymore-a-03d404e6-762b-42fb-ac48-e4a8f03a2f2b-amp

So 7 days, not 21, to needing medical assistance.

nellodee This summarised the typical course for those that actually had symptoms:

When asked about how elderly people and other vulnerable people should know when to self isolate, the minister mumbled vaguely about it's important they get the right advice and its something on their list to think about at some point. Yet more dither and dick aboutery.

Many vulnerable and chronically ill/disabled people are doing their best to hold down a job they rely on. I'm one of them. Working at all with one of those conditions is hard enough. Until the govt announces that it's right for those people to self isolate those employers won't let them do it, and they're ticking between 'well those people will need the right advice (which is on the 'might get around to one day' list)' and 'everybody carry on, you can't catch it from being close to other people, (?!), and just wash your hands.'

It's insanely irresponsible.

If you would like, I can show you the related data I found about mean incubation period, or median time from onset to recovery in mild cases, or the same information for more serious cases... all of which fits in with what I was saying about the path of the illness. I just can't find the specific article which spoke about having a pivotal point 2 weeks in where someone either began recovery, or required hospital admission. I think I read it at the beginning of February, so there have been so many, many articles written since that point.

@nellodee could it be this from the WHO fact finding mission? www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

The relevant paragraph says: Using available preliminary data, the median time from onset to clinical recovery for mild cases is approximately 2 weeks and is 3-6 weeks for patients with severe or critical disease. Preliminary data suggests that the time period from onset to the development of severe disease, including hypoxia, is 1 week. Among patients who have died, the time from symptom onset to outcome ranges from 2-8 weeks.

It's not quite what you said, but it does suggest you can't really tell the outcome of a case in the first week.

nellodee I wouldn’t bother.

None so blind as will not see etc.