Worried about coronavirus thread 22

[ofwarren]

@usernameishistory is busy and asked me to start a new thread.

Please see post 21 for more information about coronavirus.

[Edited by MNHQ at OP's request]

@nellodee That's my current fear.

It's possible they are doing similar in Germany, so it will be interesting to watch how cases progress there and if/when they change tactics.

Actually, you didn't say this yourself @Bearbehind, you just endorsed it, but didn't say who you had quoted it from. It's something I've seen many, many times, and it has no basis in any science. It could be true, but unless people have evidence, then it's just pure blind optimistic conjecture, and at this point, I'd contend optimism is far more dangerous than pessimism. (I can't do bold, by the way!)

--And indeed, if as posters on this thread suggest, there are thousands more undiagnosed people out there, then this virus is not that bad for most people as they are not seeking medical help.

This--

The contention there is that vast numbers of people are going undiscovered, and the virus is actually much milder than we think. Except the WHO specifically say that they do not think vast numbers of cases are going undiscovered, and that the virus is not mild at all, in any way we lay people would think of mild.

Just keep washing hands and calling 111.they will bat you away nicely and keep our numbers down

That’s exactly what it feel like.

@sansa- If we don’t have capacity for testing in the community we should at least test a subset of community samples to see what the true prevalence is? Hopefully the 10k will mean we can test all community cases too soon

nellodee please tell me where I have ‘endorsed it’ when I’ve reiterated I think the exact opposite?

I'm getting seriously worried now. I don't think the government is doing enough. I'm convinced we have many more cases than have been reported. And our NHS has fewer beds and higher capacity levels than Italy.

what did Singapore do? That isnt on the list and is also an island nation and seems to have shut it down

Sorry, I am not being clear - the WHO are citing are from China. Their estimated of fatality rates, etc, are all from there. And they are not based on undiagnosed cases. We should not be relying on their figures being overinflated when we come to make predictions about the UK.

Of course, lots of UK cases -are- going undiscovered, but we aren't basing the science of how this disease works from cases in the UK.

Where does the WHO specifically say that the UK is not testing enough? Googling it brings up nothing. I did find an interesting article by the FT about different testing strategies though.www.ft.com/content/dd416102-5d20-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4

Just keep washing hands and calling 111

Like this thread of somebody with symptoms and who actually had a travel history, 111 working brilliantly...

twitter.com/michaeltinmouth/status/1237308267552034821

Sorry, fixing the link:
www.ft.com/content/dd416102-5d20-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4

On top.. I do know that someones who sought medical help they were turned away and told to go home and call 111.
111 said there's nothing to worry about because they have not come into contact with a known case.

There is testing of a subset, I'm pretty sure, it's called sentinel testing but I'm not sure if it was fully rolled out last week, but that was the idea. That's why I think the UK testing isn't that bad actually, to this point, but they will need to update now with the first signs of community transmission. We are not 'bad testers' like in the US where they don't have enough test kits etc.

We’re not unique in the approach we’re taking though. Norway and the Netherlands (and I think Germany and Ireland) for example have fairly similar levels of infections to us and haven’t closed schools or begun other major interventions. Also the US though that’s obviously coming from a place of delusional leadership so can be discounted as a comparator. I think basically countries have all analysed the same sets of scientific recommendations and had to pick either the immediate lock down or a more prolonged approach to containment which takes account of just how long a lock down might need to last and whether people will accept it for long enough. Some countries have chosen one route and some the other.

In general the governments which are taking the slow move to containment approach seem to be more likely to be those I’d trust to make sound decisions. But I guess we’re all about to find out. Let’s hope both approaches work in their own ways.

Facing what happened? Were they ok

@nearly- problem is the results need to be out soon or it will be somewhat irrelevant. That should be guiding our current decisions . Or maybe it is and it’s not being disclosed

I did try to find the research and posted it on an earlier thread. It was flu based pandemic research looking at lots of studies. I can't be bothered to look for it again as I've had one of the shittest days ever.

My argument is that it's not flu and we are better to look at and listen to people on the ground in other countries.

Sorry, I am not being clear

Too right

And your attempt at clarification hasn’t helped at all

There’s 2 options here as I see it

Either

• we’re under testing and there’s loads more cases out there but they can’t be too serious or they’d need medical attention

Or

• testing is relative to those with symptoms and the number of cases is fairly accurate

Either way, there’s not loads of people out there at deaths door right now

Poisoning pigeons.

What words can I use to express my dismay at that thread

And this is the 111 service matt kept batting everything back too.

@MarshaBradyo, do has had to have one for a while as he works in a different city, they come into force for everyone from tomorrow morning. We download the form from the govt website.

The higher headline death rate is the number of deaths as a % of the number of detected cases

The 1% death rate or below that Whitty, Ferguson & others have estimated is based on the likelihood that many cases are undetected

• which is usual in such an epidemic -

almost all because they are too mild

The 60-80% worst case for the UK includes a significant % of such undetected cases

They are the experts and we don't have the knowledge to be able to say whether they are wrong
We can only trust them, rather like putting your life in the hands of a surgeon

A cabinet minister is self isolating having been tested today according to Laura Keunssberg -
Got to be Raab

Well of course UK will fare MUCH better than Netherlands,Germany, Spain, France, Poland, Denmark etc.

We are so much better than all of them, it has to be said with our superior Rule Brittania hats on.

In Germany you can be tested if you have symptoms but not travelled/had contact though, I have a friend who had it, just turned up at their drs after a prearranged appointment, not allowed on the premises, but they got testing for a bad cough. That wouldn't happen in the UK.

I'm also pretty sure the German government have directed events with more than 1000 ? people to be cancelled and football matches now played without fans. Schools and nurseries with affected corona cases are closed- again, not here, some even haven't had a deep clean here and are definitely reopened immediately.

www.thelocal.de/20200310/coronavirus-what-restrictions-are-there-on-daily-life-in-germany

So, not quite the same as 'wash your hands'.

Got to be Raab

Why do you say that?