Worried about coronavirus thread 22

[ofwarren]

@usernameishistory is busy and asked me to start a new thread.

Please see post 21 for more information about coronavirus.

[Edited by MNHQ at OP's request]

Well, if Bearbehind says we have tonnes of hidden cases, let's take their word for it, and ignore the WHO saying:

Where have I said that? 🤔

RTFT - I’m saying the exact opposite

I think if we’re only testing people with specific symptoms we’re actually identifying most cases

And any we don’t find, aren’t actually that bad as they don’t require urgent medical attention

"The researchers found very high levels of virus emitted from the throat of patients from the earliest point in their illness —when people are generally still going about their daily routines."

www.statnews.com/2020/03/09/people-shed-high-levels-of-coronavirus-study-finds-but-most-are-likely-not-infectious-after-recovery-begins/

The WHO have said that Covid19 is much less contagious and for a far briefer time prior to symptoms than normal flu. Of course some people might still catch it from others who are asymptomatic but this method of control could be a really good way of massively reducing transmission whilst still allowing as much of normal life to continue as possible.
Of course no-one can prove this scientifically right now be wise it is a novel virus. That's the whole point of modelling. It is the only way we can predict what might happen right now.

I am absolutely not a supporter of this government in a y shape or form but I think they may actually (for once) be acting on thought-through mathematical modelling advice.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/research-finds-huge-impact-of-interventions-on-spread-of-covid-19

This is Science- but it doesn't say the right thing!

I do believe there is value in thinking through how different countries and cultures would react and the state here is not the state in China, but it does illustrate interventions are important and to date, we haven't done any interventions, except try to set up the new behavioural habit of washing your hands.

Opposition parties are always quick to challenge the government
Has anybody seen any reports of this From what I have seen they seem to be supporting the government on their handling of Coronavirus

Can sweden close down please and cancel all incoming flights?

Except this is the pattern of cases. It absolutely is "that bad".

Everything was open in Italy until 6pm. Shops, restaurants, businesses, etc.
Now things have been further restricted:
Food shops- open
Pharmacies- open
Factory production can continue
Agricultural work can continue

Everything else, other shops, etc closed.

We all now have to carry a self certification saying why we are out of the house.

Why are so many other countries closing schools if it’s not necessary??

nellodee I literally have no idea what point you are trying to make

I don't believe there are thousands of undiagnosed people out there. It is almost certain there are some undiagnosed people, however, due to the cases of community transmission we have seen so far. I think we can know that enough people will get very ill for hospitals to get overstretched. This will have a knock on effect on people who need ICU or high levels of care for other reasons, e.g. stroke victims, people in RTAs etc.

It is all about making sure hospitals are able to cope as well as possible, and that means minimising the spread so the smallest number of people possible get critically ill at any one time. To do this, WHO has recommended social distancing, and governments need to put measures in place to help make this possible.

I do agree that the time for school closures may be "not yet", but it is not "never" and the government could be doing a lot more in terms of large event closures and encouraging home working and so on.

This is a considered position I've come to after reading the evidence and watching Matt Hancock this evening. I think it's the kneejerk reactions and the blind faith in the government that people aren't really thinking about.

Why are so many other countries closing schools if it’s not necessary

Ah, that's because they don't wear the magical cloak of British.

The Government are listening to economists I agree. That is the only way there strategy makes sense. Hence the claims that more decisive measures will hurt poor people - a diversion as of course plans can be put in place to stop this happening. As if it is not possible to get food to every child that gets FSM.

They are putting the economy before anything else. And I can already see the messages being crafted to explain this when lots more people die here than in comparable countries.

I move between anger and a deep sadness that lots of people will die unnecessarily in this country. I know I may be one of them. I am glad DP is healthy so at least my kids will still have one parent.

We all now have to carry a self certification saying why we are out of the house.

Book what is that like and where do you get it from?

FFS the government are following pseudo science. We are all just a massive psychology experiment.

I am so sick of politician on all sides of listening to idiots.

now is not the time to piss about.

Sex is social construct?

A pandemic can be over come by washing your hands?

We have truly gone down a rabbit hole.

Great - a week after 150k? Visitors from 50 countries visited Crufts in Birmingham via Bham Airport, I have just read that the Diamond Cruise passengers have flown into Birmingham too.

What with Cheltenham up the road, I predict my home city will move from two confirmed cases pretty quickly.

Countries that closed schools & universities NATIONWIDE:
🇯🇵 Japan
🇮🇹 Italy
🇮🇷 Iran
🇮🇶 Iraq
🇩🇰 Denmark
🇶🇦 Qatar
🇰🇼 Kuwait
🇧🇭 Bahrain
🇱🇧 Lebanon
🇰🇵 North Korea
🇦🇲 Armenia
🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan
🇲🇳 Mongolia
🇵🇱 Poland
🇺🇦 Ukraine
🇬🇷 Greece

But they are doing more. They are isolating new cases, they are contact tracing and asking people to isolate themselves, they are doing random testing, they are testing everyone in ICU, they are testing everyone in hospital with respiratory symptoms and isolating those people.

It's disingenuous to suggest that all PHE have done is say wash your hands. They have done and are doing more.

Nearly.

I actually think this will bring down the government.

I'm staggered by matt Hancock tonight.

Batting everything back to 111.
But computer says no.

Been through Milan Airport but not the precise spot, got a cough, high temp?
No worries you can't have it because you havant been to where our maths model says you have to be to catch it.

Relax. Schools won't shut. Just keep washing hands and calling 111.they will bat you away nicely and keep our numbers down.

But they are doing more.

Exactly this

If we just close schools here half the parents will just take their kids on cheap holidays and cruises which won’t help anything

Closing schools needs to be in conjunction with strict screening on movement in general

Countries that closed schools & universities NATIONWIDE

Ah, that's because they're not following the Special British Science, innit?

@Sunshinegirl82 I do agree that actually we are doing the best we can with testing, and the more we can increase capacity to test, the better.

However, no country so far has managed to contain things at the stage we are now, as far as I can tell- where we can contact trace most cases but there is a little bit of community transmission already.

So, we also need to plan for the next stage, and nothing that was said today reassures me that the government has a robust plan for what to do next.

Sunshine I personally know someone who says they think they have it. They have symptoms. They are on the Wirral. They worked at a school with a case, it was closed for cleaning. 111 won't test them.

People are going to be in for an almighty shock.

Matt h looked scared..

@fedup21
It could be for several reasons.
They could have far more cases proportionally to their population so it is at a point where it is more worth doing.
They could be bending to popular pressure even though it is not the most effective thing to do.
They could just have decided that the only thing to do is what China did without looking at it further.
They could be doing different mathematical modelling.

And indeed, if as posters on this thread suggest, there are thousands more undiagnosed people out there, then this virus is not that bad for most people as they are not seeking medical help.

Except when they are. Like this person: www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/fh4cl5/i_may_have_the_virus/

Whether or not they actually have coronavirus, it's a sign that the current 111 system isn't working.