Worried about coronavirus thread 22

[ofwarren]

@usernameishistory is busy and asked me to start a new thread.

Please see post 21 for more information about coronavirus.

[Edited by MNHQ at OP's request]

I think all we can do if we get ill is risk a and e.

Not sure what other option there is.

Doctor won't see you in case it's covid.

111 won't respond or test you unless your knowing contact with a case.

A and E it is.

Unless your by the one drive by place?

I read that article upthread about nudge theory and it mentioned Robert Halpern.

I thought shit-I saw a hypnotist on stage in the 80s by that name. What a relief to google him and find out he is no longer with us. I actually thought for a moment a hypnotist was running this shitshow.

To be fair, they are probably a lot of neurolinguistic programmers which is largely the same thing.

and their worst case scenario of 1% on 60-80% of the population would give a death total of over ½ million

so I wouldn't call that minimising

Roughly quoting from experts on Newsnight yesterday. ‘The larger the number of tests the brighter the light is, shining and showing where the virus actually is. Without a Significantly large number of tests experts, doctors etc are blind.’

I think there are countries where there is evidence for undetected cases- for example in Spain where they found a case after someone had died, and that person would have been infected before the first known case on the Spanish mainland. Obviously that person had caught it from somewhere and is likely to have spread it to someone.

In some countries, like the USA and the Netherlands, they were finding cases of community spread very early on in the testing process- now they are playing catch up and trying to catch as many cases as possible, but it is likely there are a lot of undetected cases in the USA in particular.

There are also countries like Thailand with a sharp spike in cases of "viral pneumonia".

In the UK we've got none of those things. Certainly there are a small number of undetected cases leading to community transmission, as well as people who've come back from Europe and aren't showing symptoms yet. It's impossible to prove, but I think the number of undetected cases is less than 100, not thousands as PPs have suggested.

It's almost reassuring to tell yourself that loads of cases are being missed, so the virus is not as bad as it seems, but in the UK at least, the evidence really doesn't back that up (unless you assume the government are lying about everything, which I don't).

Wow @Mordred
From previous thread.

He looked dreadful today @fedup21- and was coughing a lot

WHO have said there is not enough testing.

They were more likely referring to the US than the UK though.

Here's the evidence which seems to match the school closure logic.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/316203/SchoollClosuresEvidenceereview.pdf

It's from 2014, I think the conclusion is the bit to read.

Or, Bearbehind, the other alternative. There are many more cases that are still in the first 3 weeks before they become serious, and we are not finding them, but will do very, very soon, when they present at hospital.

I'm not endorsing it though.

Raab was coughing and looking unwell today and it was commented on.

Twitter says telegraph says Raab is clear.

Thanks! Let's hope our special British science with the recommendation of let's do hardly anything works out!

Bear they don’t usually need hospital treatment until more than 8-14 days into the infection. That’s when they get found out, as they present to hospital not being able to breathe. They get tested then, or when they have died.

That’s where the acceleration in numbers of not travel’ cases is coming from. And I predict we are going to see a huge ramping up in those presenting to hospital in the next could of weeks.

It’s also why it is ridiculous for Nadine Dorries to say she is through the worst of it. Disease progression suggests that around 8-10 days you either start to feel better or start to have breathing problems.

All those thousands who have so far been robbed off by 111 because of no travel (and it is mere conjecture on my part that it is thousands - it will become clear soon) will start popping up at A and E or calling ambulances because they can’t breathe.

And very, very quickly the NHS will be overwhelmed and break down.

And heaven help anyone who needs help after that.

So , Mordred , that will be why in 10 to 14 days ( after the Fun Boy 3 press conference) that we have been tilt to self isolate for 7 days if any symptoms.

Nelodee

Much more succinct than me

@MangePasTesOnglesVilain That's an interesting paper, thank you for linking it.

Yes at the moment there seems to be two schools of thought and we arent the only country following it

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/does-closing-schools-slow-spread-novel-coronavirus

And I have to say its a difficult one because once you start when do you stop

Experts have different opinions - WHO's scientist are probably not that different from ours in terms of qualifications and there is no experience, no guide map no real clear thought out plan of how to handle it.

China locked down so effectively - but what now, how long can that be sustained. They open pandora's box and its out there now and its going to be incredibly difficult to put it back in its box.

Re
"Either

• we’re under testing and there’s loads more cases out there but they can’t be too serious or they’d need medical attention

Or

• testing is relative to those with symptoms and the number of cases is fairly accurate

Either way, there’s not loads of people out there at deaths door right now"

It doesn't have to be only a or b. For example it could be that a load of people are infected below the radar - however they don't yet require hospitalisation as their illness has not yet reached that point. So they are very ill, cough and fever, no known other cases to get them tested though. However as time passes, they might reach the point where a bit of a nasty cough develops into being unable to breathe, when they will be hospitalised and tested as a hospitalised patient.

Nearly, I believe, cases that are not treated when they get severe are the ones that get dangerous like patient 1 in Italy.

Perhaps Germany success is because they treat and deal with the problems at source not letting them fester?

I really hope, that they aren’t genuinely thinking of letting the virus burn through the population. As well as creating a health crisis it would also be an economically bad idea. The problem is if every other country decides that they aren’t happy to take that approach and instead go hard on containment then we become the country that the rest of the world ban all travel to and from. I can’t see how that could possibly be good for the economy.
I really can’t believe that they’d seriously be taking that approach. I think they must believe that the measures that they are taking will slow the spread. I’m not sure I have confidence that they will but surely they must believe it. It would be madness to accept a full-blown, nationwide epidemic as inevitable when the example of China provides hard evidence that it isn’t.

Nearlyalmost50 the sentinel testing is in 100 GP practices (UK has over 6000 practices). So they may miss clusters etc. and not be indicative.

I wonder when or if the known case contact / travel testing criteria will ever be relaxed so it can identify community transmission.

There are many more cases that are still in the first 3 weeks before they become serious, and we are not finding them, but will do very, very soon, when they present at hospital.

And what is that based on?

As I pointed out earlier, Nadine Dorries appears to have gone through the entire cycle in less than 6 days

Raab tested negative for Covid19 at the end of Feb.

Looking at him today, some needs to send him home and make him go to bed for a few days at the very least. He looked as rough as feck and has appalling hygiene habits.

As nearlyalmost50 posted, there are far more "social distancing" measures in Germany,
the most significant being cancelling all mass public gatherings, whether trade fairs or sport
That is an economic hit, but an acceptably small one.

Also, when people have tested positive, they are ordered to self-isolate and monitored by phone - probably the threat of penalties is effective here, which can be up to 2 years jail or a very large fine & damages.

Schools have not closed in general, only for confirmed cases and then reopened after deep cleaning

As in the UK, closing them would not only hammer the economy, it would also hammer public services, including the health service

One eminent virologist here has called for closing schools,
but politicians so far, of all parties, seem to be regarding this as something only to be done as a last resort.