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worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 18

999 replies

usernameishistory · 09/03/2020 11:35

Next thread

previous thread here

Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england

WHO advice for the public
www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Its not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus. Please provide updated link if possible, I haven't been able to make this one work.

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

For research on CV and babies:
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761659

Please add in other links for any wanting to increase their understanding and decrease their anxiety!

OP posts:
Thread gallery
15
Jellykat · 09/03/2020 18:54

I sympathise Ledkr, having lived in Cheltenham in the past i fully understand how packed the town centre gets!! Ridiculous...

SunburstsOrMarbleHalls · 09/03/2020 18:54

All schools in the Madrid region are to close over Corona Virus concerns

Facingtheunkown · 09/03/2020 18:54

@Frangipanini

What simple measures

Langbannedforsafeguardingkids · 09/03/2020 18:55

Thanks mojo don't have time to read right now - but does that not suggest that implementing extremely aggressive social distancing / lockdown measures - as China did - NOW will actually limit economic damage long term?

This is the thing so many people don't seem to get - seem to have such a short term view. It may be that there is only a choice between economic pain now and lockdown (plus saved lives) or WORSE economic pain later after breakdown (and lost lives).

If the choice is save lives and save the economy (compared to the alternative) - why are they waiting?

LambriniSocialist · 09/03/2020 18:56

This is a worrying case as the student went skiing in North Italy at the start of half term.(like my son). Returned to UK (no symptoms - like my son) and then self isolated for 14 days (unlike my son after we were advised to send him in).
After 2 weeks the boy has tested positive. Very worrying given that some at my son's school did return with coughs and were tested. Seems we are not out of the woods.

Was he being tested daily, and then after 2 weeks tested positive? Does this mean that when he was negative, he could have still passed it on? Or was he tested for the first time after 2 weeks?

middleager · 09/03/2020 18:56

Ledkr I understand.
We had people flying in from all over the globe, including lots from Italy, for Crufts in Birmingham last week.

Saz12 · 09/03/2020 18:56

Just read over 50’s at risk comment, followed by “...and no dispatch note yet”.
I’m not sure I fancy being sent a note of my imminent “dispatch” with a cv diagnoses! 👻

Sleepyblueocean · 09/03/2020 18:56

"That isolation will mean my 3 year old is never in"

Ds too. He has had cold symptoms for most of this term. Unless they can go back after a week if it hasn't turned into anything more although how would you know it was more.

MetalDog · 09/03/2020 18:57

As I posted, Uk public health experts are taking only UK cases AND assuming there are probably 3 x as many mild cases not reported - which lowers the death rate to 1%

Nonsense, this is how the UK scientists arrived at the 1% figure and it has nothing to do with UK cases. It is based upon Wuhan confirmed cases and fatalities up to 15th of January and a bunch of modelling assumptions:
Link from the UK Action Plan

Nearlyalmost50 · 09/03/2020 18:58

This is very interesting in terms of developments for me, because it highlights some differences between German culture (as my German friends and friends who live in Germany tell me, so not totally infallible) and Uk culture in terms of their approach to illness.

On Mn and I guess representative of the population here, people are always told to carry on with a cold, it's just a sniffle, if you have back to back sniffles, so what and that nothing less than full flu is a reason not to go into work. This came up on a recent thread. In Germany, it is considered wrong to infect all your co-workers constantly with horrid if not very serious viruses and people are much more likely to stay off. This is also exacerbated by more generous sickness policies in Germany whereas lots in the UK get SSP which is measly and a risk of losing their jobs. So people prioritise naturally their need to work, take Lemsip and infect the whole office.

So basically, this new policy means become more like Germany and take better care of yourself when you have a cold or respiratory symptoms and stop bloody spreading it. It is a political issue though not just a social one, because it relates to zero hours contracts and crap sick pay.

Also, they need to contain the peak in the UK very strategically because they have 1/4 of the ITU beds per 100,000 population than Germany. So timing is more important to us as we have fewer resources and are already at almost peak capacity without corona, not like some other better resourced health-care systems.

I am not against this policy as I always work from home or try not to go in if I have a cold anyway but I know this is because I am lucky enough to have flexibility in my working.

Children staying home from school when sick should NEVER have been penalized and criminalize and parents harassed if they don't go in, attendance % targets have made us do counter-intuitive things in this country which are now putting us all at risk.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/03/2020 18:58

Someone posted a link about how China had a successful new setup for online movies, after cinemas were closed

Frangipanini · 09/03/2020 18:59

Mirena, yes I've seen the posters. I'me intrigued as to how the 3 year olds in my school are going to read that or if the older ones could be bothered to read it. It is all very well printing off posters and sticking them on the wall, schools need to teach children how to wash hands properly, how to apply hand gel and other hygiene practises urgently. Visitors to schools should be made to apply hand gel before entering and cleaning of surfaces should be increased. They have not been told to do this. Of course, parents should do this, but many won't. This is the first things schools overseas down they have an outbreak of any virus.

seasmize · 09/03/2020 18:59

ICU age breakdown from Italy (733 in total):

ICU's tdy data, just released by IT Health Authorities
+75yo : 22%

65-74: 37%
50-64: 33%
25-49: 8%

Also, what are we hoping to achieve with a 7 day isolation for people with colds? Firstly Covid symptoms are different to colds, secondly recent papers show cases she’d virus from 8-37 days!

www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S014067362305663.pdf

Science based my arse.

Axlcat · 09/03/2020 19:00

@Glittercandle I bought some on 6 March and had order confirmation but haven’t had a Despatch either.

middleager · 09/03/2020 19:01

Lambrini
The letter from the school seems to have only been tested AFTER 14 days of isolation as was previously not showing any symptoms and went to a category 2 region. Worrying as this fits my son's travel patterns at that time too.

'Earlier today, we were made aware by Public Health England that one of our students has been diagnosed with Coronavirus (COVID-19). This student had visited Italy at the beginning of half-term and although they had not been in the affected areas, we asked that they self-isolate at home as a precaution. The child returned to school at the end of last week after 14 days of self-isolation but felt unwell over the weekend and was diagnosed today.'

Frazzled2207 · 09/03/2020 19:01

@Langbannedforsafeguardingkids
Just read on guardian that that (38yo) Italian is recovering now and has been discharged from ITU. Some good news among the doom.

HasaDigaEebowai · 09/03/2020 19:01

posted this on the prepping thread too but if anyone is lookingfor hand sanitiser, Home bargains has their large 500ml bottles back in stock for 99p. Limited to 2 per customer/

Dusty01 · 09/03/2020 19:01

This age/underlying condition thing is being pumped out by the governments though - so I can't blame ordinary people. Yes it's good to stop and think what you're parroting, but if governments aren't realising that this is false reassurance, we have no hope.

DonkeyKong2019 · 09/03/2020 19:02

@Sleepyblueocean his are 3 years worth of problems that we have never got to the bottom off. He is always phlemgy and short of breath..his childcare were already whinging but the GPs over summer say it's allergy and over winter say it's viral. They removed his tonsils and adenoids which was meant to help but absolutely made no impact.

Facingtheunkown · 09/03/2020 19:02

What precisely is respitory illness.

Dd has a cough.?

ShanghaiDiva · 09/03/2020 19:02

@Langbannedforsafeguardingkids
This was the choice China made: people over economy.
Quite ironic when you think of all the criticism on mumsnet of this ‘brutal totalitarian regime’

usernameishistory · 09/03/2020 19:03

The table I posted ended at week 15 for 2019 season (it is noted on the table)

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 09/03/2020 19:04

MetalDog Epidemiologist Prof Ferguson said he estimated there were 3 x the number of reported cases in the UK
and he estimated the real death rate would be 1% or a bit under

Unfortunately, his Imperial College lecture seems to have been taken down now - I think it was just for a course

AxisOfDick · 09/03/2020 19:05

They emphasised “timing” a lot... they’re basically waiting until people are begging for the upheaval

They’ll have a trigger point

Facingtheunkown · 09/03/2020 19:05

Middle

I thought we were out of the wood re half term holidays Sad

Clearly not. There is no set pattern. Unless child caught it elsewhere and Italy ski trip was a red herring... There are no measures here to track or isolate anyone.

Very few people will stay off work with minor colds esp small b business owners who rely on themselves.