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worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 15

999 replies

usernameishistory · 06/03/2020 20:38

Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

OP posts:
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GPwife2411 · 07/03/2020 18:33

@FourTeaFallOut - well indeed. I'll see if I can find a map of the sentinel practices ... they've conducted surveillance like this for years with everything from traveller's diarrhoea to flu, but I am not sure if it's the same practices involved or not.

VivaLeBeaver · 07/03/2020 18:33

We could definitely be missing some deaths.....not realising they’re coronavirus. That’s happened in Italy. They only realised 2 weeks later with one person.

Italy also has a much higher elderly population percentage, so they could expect a higher mortality rate.

tryingtoprep · 07/03/2020 18:34

The US approach doesn't make sense. It sounds similar to ours. Don't test so you can pretend it's not happening. That won't work forever once people are dying in large numbers and hospitals don't have enough beds. I'd have thought Trump would want to be seen to be taking all possible action to protect people. Maybe he secretly doesn't want to get re-elected.

I wonder why do some states have more test kits than others?

This situation is so serious, I do wish we could see (here as well as the states) unity between different political parties. This is no time for political games.

oneteen · 07/03/2020 18:35

Do we have enough tests (testers) in the UK...or are they waiting for this new quicker test to be launched?

FourTeaFallOut · 07/03/2020 18:35

Thank you @GPwife2411

BigChocFrenzy · 07/03/2020 18:36

Germany also has a high average population age, but still no deaths

However, one ex-transplant patient, who takes meds to lower his immune system, has been very ill in ICU for some days
Doesn't sound good for the poor soul Sad

Exochord · 07/03/2020 18:36

Is it right that there are no gp practices in the sentinel programme in the whole of the North East?
Not to my knowledge. Probably why there are so few cases declared in that region.

WaterSheep · 07/03/2020 18:36

But there was a superspreader who showed no sign of illness and had no known contact with COVID. He was hospitalised for days before anyone thought to test.

The reality is we could have a similar situation in the UK, we just wouldn't know about it until it was too late.

justchecking1 · 07/03/2020 18:37

Also the pulse article is saying the sentinel programme is testing severe respiratory infections that don't display Covid-19 symptoms???

What the Hell??

Why wouldn't you test people who are displaying the right symptoms when you're trying to pick up a disease?? So they're not testing anyone with a cough or a temp?? No bloody wonder they're not finding anyone!!

GPwife2411 · 07/03/2020 18:37

@justchecking1 - agree 100% that cases are being missed. And it's not 'gut feeling' it's the opposite, statistical inference as you clearly show.

Apparently out of hours GP is swamped at the moment (worried well? perhaps, I sort of hope so vs the alternative!) so DH has gone in.

seasmize · 07/03/2020 18:40

On today’s video by Dr John Campbell he mentioned that there are now 30 cases of local community spread. Usually when a country finds those there are a LOT more out there. It’d be helpful for PHE to notify the population what those areas as are so ill people in those places could be more alert/aware and request testing.

MyHipsDontLieUnfortunately · 07/03/2020 18:44

I'd like to see data on this year's UK pneumonia deaths so far, compared to last year.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/03/2020 18:48

This is what we have been told in Germany:

The general advice is to try and contact your GP by phone, if you suspect you may have Coronavirus

Only people who’ve been recommended by a doctor to receive a coronavirus test would be tested - at a specially designated hospital testing point

Further outpatient coronavirus testing spots in hospitals will likely follow.

For patients who are not mobile or able to get to to a testing point, there are procedures in place for health professionals to visit homes for testing.

If you've spoken face-to-face with an infected person for at least 15 minutes, sat in the same row of the cinema or the same row of seats on a plane, or been coughed on or sneezed on by an infected person,
you're advised to self-quarantine

https://www.br.de/nachrichten/wissen/faq-coronavirus-die-wichtigsten-fragen-und-antworten,Rorgu8D

During this time, you should continue to be paid.

Those affected must stay at home and avoid contact with other members of the household as much as possible.

They must take their temperature twice a day and keep a diary of possible symptoms and contact with anyone.

As far as shopping and walking the dog is concerned: those who are in quarantine must ask friends, family or acquaintances to do so.

Friends would then have to leave the shopping outside the door of the quarantined person. < self-isolated >

What are the penalties for breaking an officially mandated quarantine?

Violation of the quarantine can reportedly result in severe penalties – namely a prison sentence of up to two years or a fine.

The health authorities check the quarantine by calling the affected person's home to talk to the patient and check how they are doing.

If no one can be reached, the public health department goes to the person's home and if no one is there, the police are called as a last resort.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/03/2020 18:51

The German govt has a useful Q&A with english & French language versions too:

www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/issues/ausbreitung-coronavirus-1726158

OneTimePrepper · 07/03/2020 18:53

"The health authorities check the quarantine by calling the affected person's home to talk to the patient and check how they are doing."

What if you dont have a landline phone? Many people dont these days.

aliasname · 07/03/2020 18:53

I work in a non-clinical department of a large hospital. We have had staff round wanting to requisition a room to set up video-appointments. Not sure whether that's just to triage covid19 patients. I know Skype consultations happen in remote places (eg. Australian outback) although I guess they have to manage without physical checks eg. pulse, blood pressure etc.

They weren't sure if the computers would be up to running the video software. IT in a panic.

Then the boss said we might be able to work from home, but we would need to be set up for that. IT in a panic.

Or maybe we could all have laptops...but IT would need to provide them... I don't know if any of this is going to happen, our network is so slow it takes my computer 20 minutes to log on, I don't think the NHS has the infrastructure for skype and home working!

LuxLFC · 07/03/2020 18:54

Apologies if this has already been posted:

CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations Dr Richard Hatchett explains the long-term dangers of the Covid-19 coronavirus - saying it's the scariest outbreak he's dealt with in his 20-year career

More people need to hear his message about those who are healthy & don't take it seriously could then be responsible for the death of someone else.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/03/2020 18:57

"What if you dont have a landline phone?"

It would be normal to call the mobile phone number in most cases, imo
Probably they specify that location must be switched on in the phone, so that it can be monitored

Calls are partly to check you haven't gone out, but also to check if you need medical attention,
especially for those who live alone

DonkeyKong2019 · 07/03/2020 18:58

France are clearly following italy

Choux · 07/03/2020 19:01

From worldometers - 99% of deaths are age 60 or older and 48% of deaths are in the over 80s. As someone with parents age 80 and 88 this makes me so sad.

Percentage of deaths by age group:
90+ years old: 6% of deaths
80 - 89 years old: 42% of deaths
70 - 79 years old: 35% of deaths
60 - 69 years old: 16% of deaths

  • Among the 5,061 active cases, 3,218 (55%) are hospitalized, 567 of which (representing 11% of active cases) are in intensive care
  • Among the 822 closed cases, 589 (72%) have recovered, 233 (28%) have died
Choux · 07/03/2020 19:03

Sorry I meant to say those are the Italy figures.

peachgreen · 07/03/2020 19:07

Terrifying having such shitty, irresponsible, selfish leaders like Johnson and Trump at a time like this.

peachgreen · 07/03/2020 19:08

Why is the mortality rate in the Italian closed cases so high?

BigChocFrenzy · 07/03/2020 19:12

Very illuminating stats, choux
since there are presumably fewer people in their 80s than their 70s
and also fewer of each than people in their 60s

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