worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 15

[usernameishistory]

Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

But... How can there be confirmed cases if they don't test.

Loads felt unwell coming through Milan Airport etc but didn't go to a specific hot spot. So they weren't tested?

It's peculiar.

I hope they’d give a few to their neighbours if they asked.

Pah, I might trade for agreements not to have late parties with bonfires or burn wet wood in their log burning stoves or leave their fucking cars running for frigging hours on the morning and stinking out the place, I'll be like the lord of the fucking manor with my 45 rolls.

Ack of course a years worth of vitamin C for a family is loads

Does anyone know what levels of infections could be reached before we move beyond the "containment" phase.

I thought we were already beyond the contain phase?

Speaking to MPs on the health and social care committee, Prof Whitty said the country was now "mainly" in the delay phase of the government's four-part plan to tackle the virus, but was still following aspects of the first phase.

Wow four, sounds like you live in a lovely place if all of your neighbours are like that!

watersheep, I read earlier it is still containment but there has definitely been conflicting reports

The numbers don't seem as bad but if you look at how many they tested in the last 24 hours to the ones the day before it's
Not great.

Yesterday at 9am they had tested 2225 people and 47 positive I believe.

Today at 9am they had tested 1122 and 42 positive.

So just over half tested and only 5 less testing positive.

Also noticed there regional data they updated yesterday was till 9am on the 5th March so that's a day behind, I'm wondering if today they will give up till 9am on 6th March.

MrsStranger I get that, fully understandable. I'm not suggesting he should have been tested - I'm saying that no-one can really know the extent of spread of CV without wider testing being available.

We know how many people are being tested, how many are positive, how many have died.

What remains a 'known unknown', is how many people in the community are carrying the virus, with and without symptoms. So I'm not sure how health leaders can say with such confidence that it isn't in the community. Hope that makes sense.

my neighbour was out drilling at 7.15 this morning

It's a very naice estate where no one gives a shit about anyone else.

Of course I’d give my neighbour some loo roll. A months supply isn’t actually a lot in my house. It’s one of the big packets

@middleager

Maybe he just wants to enjoy what time he has left. My DM was seriously ill for a quarter of her life but she did whatever she could to make the most of things. She never once mentioned dying until a few hours before she passed when she told me she’d had enough. I knew that was the end.

Heypizza I was under the impression that they were still doing that thing of certain surgeries testing everyone with flu symptoms and all ITU patients etc but now I am wondering if that is actually the case!

This is a very interesting study of what happened in China and how they got the epidemic back under control. Also supports what Shanghai has been saying.

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries?utm_campaign=SciMag&utm_source=JHubbard&utm_medium=Facebook

To sum up though - the reason they won't work is not biology based but culture based. They would work if we did them.

Extract:

Aggressive “social distancing” measures implemented in the entire country included canceling sporting events and shuttering theaters. Schools extended breaks that began in mid-January for the Lunar New Year. Many businesses closed shop. Anyone who went outdoors had to wear a mask.

Two widely used mobile phone apps, AliPay and WeChat—which in recent years have replaced cash in China—helped enforce the restrictions, because they allow the government to keep track of people’s movements and even stop people with confirmed infections from traveling. “Every person has sort of a traffic light system,” says mission member Gabriel Leung, dean of the Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong. Color codes on mobile phones—in which green, yellow, or red designate a person’s health status—let guards at train stations and other checkpoints know who to let through.

“As a consequence of all of these measures, public life is very reduced,” the report notes. But the measures worked. In the end, infected people rarely spread the virus to anyone but members of their own household, Leung says. Once all the people in an apartment or home were exposed, the virus had nowhere else to go and chains of transmission ended. “That’s how the epidemic truly came under control,” Leung says

I think this is very interesting. We need to start restricting what we do, for the sake of our NHS being able to cope.

It also says 20% of cases (1 in 5) ended up in hospital. That is a lot worse than flu. 'moderate' cases could be those with pneumonia at home. I had pneumonia at home and lots of antibiotics. Took me 2 months to get over it.

I know it's a delay rather than cure but my biggest fear about delaying social distancing measures (and the blase attitude of a lot of people on facebook about curtailing their holidays etc) is that we'll run out of ICU beds for the 1 in 5. That's going to be a LOT more deaths than if we all get it gradually.

Anyone got any views about people in their 60s who had previously not had a flu/pneumonia jab this season getting one now?

Milktray, it is pretty late in the season to be getting those now, I am not even sure how easy it would be to get? It won't have any impact on covid 19 but obviously it can protect against flu, which is still circulating. The pneumonia protects against some bacterial pneumonias but not all, and certainly doesn't prevent viral.

I did a months online shop instead of a week, with the addition of some UHT milk, frozen veg and bread mix. I did this a couple of weeks ago and have continued to shop normally since. I have not contributed to any shortages but can stay at home for 4-6 weeks if necessary. How is that wrong or stupid? It's panic buying which is causing the issues not sensible planning.

I read earlier it is still containment but there has definitely been conflicting reports

Perhaps we'll find out more on Monday.

Milktray - I would say go for it because if admitted to hospital with CV there is a real risk of also catching flu which will definitely reduce the odds of recovery. Plus it reduces the load on the NHS and every bout of flu reduces heart and lung health (getting the flu vax every year is more beneficial for heart health than smoking cessation on a population level) so overall if it can be got, it should - minimal risks and potentially huge benefits.

@MilkTrayLimeBarrel It's always worth having those jabs. We're nearing the end of flu season but it's still possible to catch it. The last thing you'd want is flu and Covid at the same time. The pneumonia jab only protects against bacterial pneumonia. Covid is viral pneumonia but the jab could protect against a secondary infection.

@Langbannedforsafeguardingkids
I agree. The reason I’m starting to curtail and minimize my activities is
NOT because I’m panicking. It is because I see that it has worked in China and helped in Italy too.

The other major reason is because I want to ensure everyone can get an ICU bed. That is why I’m shocked the government would even suggest ‘letting it just rampage early’ - Er do we have enough ICU beds? No.

Italian medical staff have sent a clear warning to other countries to be prepared and ready as the critical care admissions were overwhelming them.

I cancelled going to a family event today, partly to delay and also partly so that everyone going had less chance of getting or spreading anything. It’s sensible. If we all hold back a bit then we will make a positive difference.

And the people panic buying and stealing masks I will bet are not the ones making positive changes in their lives - they are likely the ones coughing into their hands! As it’s selfish thinking so I disagree with the medic quoted - doing something sensible is good Medical practice.

Bacterial pneumonia vax would be useful in terms of secondary infection, which CV patients are indeed sometimes showing (i.e. viral and bacterial pneumonia at once) but it depends on whether the individuals have had the vax recently anyhow, in which case - unlike the flu - it isn't needed on an annual basis.

reported 26 FEB
Up to now, people have only been tested if they displayed symptoms having recently returned from one of the countries where there has been an outbreak, including China, South Korea and northern Italy.

Public Health England said it was now working with some hospitals and GP surgeries to conduct tests on some other patients.

In eight hospitals, patients in intensive care with severe respiratory infections will be tested for the virus.

In 100 GP surgeries, those coming in with milder flu-like symptoms - dry coughs, fever, shortness of breath - will be tested.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51641243

and now this from Tuesday 3rd March
NHS bosses have ramped up their efforts to detect the virus by ordering all 135 acute hospital trusts in England to routinely test anyone in intensive care units (ICUs) who has a breathing problem.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/thousands-of-intensive-care-patients-to-be-tested-for-covid-19

Why should people who always bulk buy when things are on offer feel bad for being well stocked now? I'm not bulk buying at the moment but it makes financial sense to me to buy the things we use a lot when they're cheapest.

Perhaps Prof Whitty got rapped on the knuckles for talking about moving into the Delay phase, because his deputy Dr Jenny Harries was definitely rowing back towards Containment when interviewed this morning.