Coronavirus thread 13

[KenAdams]

Previous thread here.

We are using Worldometer, BDO and Dr John Campbell videos as part of the discussions.

They might have anticipated it, but there's not much they can do about it other than tighten the budgets and cancel flights/encourage people to take unpaid leave...funnily enough we've just invested loads in cruise ships!

I'm worried as I'm fairly new and was just starting to get into my job and like it, so I hope there's no wave of redundancies. Also worried about actually catching the virus, because people are flying for holidays/business constantly and we're near an airport, so have a lot of crew & pilots visiting too. Lots of suspicious coughs round the office, corona is pretty much all anyone talks about. I am counting down the days till we all get told to WFH for weeks!

I've been watching the woŕldometer all day we hit globally 100 deaths worldwide at 21.56 however when it updated only 71. people died then got better today?

China reset their figures around 10pm our time

@Wehttam they fly both Europe and long-haul.

Virgin?

"Big choc on still waiting for your evidence to link Boris turned down Chris whittams humanitarian approach to follow his own economic one"

What do you mean ?
You really are a determined and super-sensitive Boris defender - and you don't read properly

My post was in reply to someone criticising Whitty for government policy

I never stated that Whitty disagreed with the government's decision,
merely that it was unfair to blame him for it

I stated that as a public servant, he could not possibly criticise govt policy in public without resigning

• and that he would be irresponsible to do so in such a crisis

We don't know his personal views
He could completely agree, or he could disagree - if he follows the WHO line
We'll never know unless there is a major disaster and a public enquiry afterwards

Thank you @justchecking1 I thought I was going mad

No need to confirm fields I just assumed with the cruise ship investment.

Not exactly the best timing to be launching a new ship is it

@GalOopNorth why is it worrying ? If you have mild symptoms, ie, similar to normal flu, why do you need a hospital bed? Get a grip!

@Springinsight
I don’t think it has anything to do with political systems. Italy is a democracy and has taken a tough stance with closing schools etc. Other countries also made some tough decisions back in January eg Australia and flights from China.
As an autocracy, China could move quickly to implement control measures, but we have seen other counties take similar action.
China did not say let it burn, however the cases were increasing at an alarming rate and doing nothing would have been catastrophic.

QT
Audience: How afraid of CV should we be?

Matt Hancock:
Clearly huge challenge
Send condolences for patient who died
Worrying moment
Responsibility for govt to get right
Perfectly Reasonable to be worried
Mild for most of us, vast majority will recover.
Akin to flu for most people
Effects on economy
Around 1 per cent of people, fatal.
More difficult as it's new
We all need to play our part

shanghai did China act too late though? It took a while for them to admit the ‘pneumonia’ issue in Wuhan was actually happening from accounts I’ve read and heard with reports on the then mysterious illness coming out early January.

The CMO did not give Boris Johnson binary advice on authoritarian measures v sacrificing the population for economic gain. This isn’t a Disney film. A range of people will have given the whole COBRA committee information, analysis and advice. Part of that will have been models for how the virus might spread under different conditions, with short, medium and long term impacts. Boris is probably referring to one of those models when he talks about the theory. He strikes me as the personality type who would initially be attracted to the model of a short term crisis rather than longer term management. However he is not the president, we don’t have a presidential system. Decisions will be made in consultation with others and he won’t be the only person who has seen the models and analysis.

Springinsight Did you watch the evidence session in full? The CMO is very impressive and reassuring. They have obviously done the modelling and know that at x point, y intervention will have the most impact.

I get the impression that school closures will happen but not until the infection numbers make sense within the modelling so my guess is that school closures would be short and sharp. There is clearly a plan to get to summer and to have an intense few weeks of pressure when the Nhs is better able to cope. I assume there is also a calculated risk that if it’s going to peak, they’d rather it was summer than risk it going into October or November when winter pressures start to ramp up again. No-one ever really talks about that being a risk.

I also think the WHO were referring to the US and not us in their criticism.

Well. That's reassuring

Matt Hancock on QT I mean!

Fields “cancel teambuilding days or anything frivolous”

Perhaps there’s a silver lining

The pointless frivolous team building days might finally end?

You get a grip, Namechanger.

I have a very good one thanks.

Can you imagine, go on, try really hard, that you are caring for someone at home who has been sent away from hospital with ‘mild’ Coronavirus- which, by the way, they have no immunity to, and which, even in it’s mild form is not dissimilar to a bad case of pneumonia in many cases.

And imagine that they deteriorate. In any way. Struggle to breathe, can’t eat or drink. Stop breathing. What will you do? Call 999? Good luck with that. Nobody’s coming.

Just let yourself out of your normalcy bubble for just a moment. What do you think will happen?

They could take action to slow down the peak and avoid this, or at least minimise it. They are not taking those actions. Not isolating areas, not pouring enough resource into effective and up to date 111 services.

Try to understand. Many, many people will die, at home, without medical help.

Atla yup, nothing to see here!

Yep, the CMO will give a range of options and measures
Boris will have chosen from these

Hit post by mistake I wanted to add;

the large window of opportunity was missed when they could have potentially put a stop to the issue well in advance of the movement of people for CNY. I know hindsight is a wonderful thing.

If the government don't want to close schools due to staff shortages that would create, then they could set up their own childcare for staff either within hospital grounds or say a church hall/ community centre close to hospital which staff won't pay for. (Just an idea)

Parents that have the option to educate at home should be given the option without issue from anyone and without losing their child's place.

Their modelling includes the presumption that it will become widespread.

"Why on earth is he talking about the ski chalet being the ideal environment to spread when many of us and our students are in ski chalet environment every day like lemmings?"

As a public servant, he has to tailor his pronouncements to govt policy - which currently is not to close schools
UK senior civil servants sometimes have to say things they may personally disagree with, or not say things they think are important

He is allowed to talk about ski chalets, pretty non-controversial.
However, if he said schools are ideal environments to spread the virus, then that would be an implicit criticism of the govt,
or at least would create pressure on the govt to close them

@Wehttam Don't quote me but I'm sure the diary of having the coronavirus in the daily mail earlier today said he caught it in November. Trying to find a link now

@Wehttam
There was a cover up/ unwillingness to admit there was a problem and perhaps it could have been contained if action had been taken on a provincial level back in December. This delay and the severe actions taken since have had ,and continue to have, massive economic consequences for China and am sure there will be severe consequences for those responsible for the ‘delay’.