Do you know anyone with corona virus? How poorly are they?

[cultkid]

am I right in thinking children aren't as badly effected?

No it's Carlisle, Trinity school.
www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/18294535.coronavirus-carlisle-trinity-school-teacher-diagnosed-covid-19-virus/

I really must stress that the teacher did everything she was advised to do, and got tested as soon as she realised it was a possibility. The school isn't shut, I assume they think it's better to keep the kids all together rather than shutting so they can all hang about at McDonald's.

Also nw London have a school pupil with it

@SpaghettiSharon is there no official advice there on meeting like that?

I agree that people here would engage in risky behavior if there were no penalties. I don't know about rioting!

I think it's a shame that people here are so self-centered. It's one thing to worry about something like childcare and bills and how workers would be affected if the schools shut down. It's another to think that people would be complaining about not being able to entertain their children while others are dying of an epidemic.

@Bluebelle32 there is now but when they first closed the schools there wasn’t. I think know they’re all confined largely to home. I would go insane very fast .

Nadine Dorries

What you need to know
The corona virus is being transmitted by a no of ways.
Most viruses can be spread by touch of infected surfaces, most viruses will live for a few hours on hard surfaces and less on clothes etc. The risk is that a person touching the surface with their hands then touches at some point their points of entry into the body such as eyes, nose mouth. These areas with mucus membranes then allow the virus to spread.
What you need to know about the corona virus and surface contamination-
The virus has been able to stay of surfaces for up to 9 days. It has a protective mechanism which means it creates a protective protein shell around it and goes in to standby more – when it then senses heat it then reactivates and can infect. This is also one of the reasons it is thought that the virus will survive through the summer and extreme cold of winters.
How to defend yourself- wear gloves(disposable) and wipe these gloves throughout their use with either high alcohol sanitiser or antiviral sprays/ fluids, touch surfaces using wet wipes between your hand and the surface and then dispose of the wet wipe. It may be good idea to wipe the whole surface of the item at same time.
The greater the process used in relation to killing surface mounted virus the greater that your chances of surviving it are. So rather than just touching the door handle minimally with hand covered in wet wipe quickly clean the handle then press it as you intended to but then have a good practised process of disposal of that wet wipe and wash/clean hands.
It should be noted that anti-bacterial wipes or sanitiser is not affective against viruses. This is important to realise as they provide for a false sense of security. They only kill bacteria.
Droplet infection
Droplet infection is the result of a cough or sneeze. Droplets of mucus/spit are expelled and are thrown a meter or so. They then land on surfaces or if others are close enough, they are breathed in. similar to spraying using a spray bottle the droplets spread in an arc being propelled forward. This can be minimised by the use of tissue or other surfaces (absurdly the public are told to sneeze or cough into their arm which is fine if you don’t have anything else but then that arm will be contaminated for hours) and these should be disposed off in to a sealed receptacle such as bin. Your hands obviously may be contaminated, and they should be washed or if this is not possible high alcohol hand sanitiser should be used.
Aerosol spread
Unfortunately, the corona virus has been seen to spread by aerosol infection. Due to the size of the virus being extremely small, the smaller particles of water in either droplet or breathing, that are expelled normally cannot hold larger viruses as they are too small. However, the coronavirus is small enough to be carried by these particles. Therefore, this is one of the reasons why the coronavirus is spread so easily and so far as well as being for a longer time.
The simplest way to visualise this is when in the summer you spray water on plants you see water droplets floating about that are so fine they seem to float and spread making light refract in to a rainbow, this is droplet infection that had become so small the droplets are light enough to be carried by air currents and are aerosolised -therefore may take more time to settle on surfaces , infecting them and at a greater range but also they may just float for a long time and be breathed in by people who were not even present when the water was sprayed.
Just like the dust that fell on our cars from the Sahara desert earlier this year because it was carried by air currents, light air currents around buildings and enclosed areas mean that this aerosol can gradually spread around a house after from instance the toilet being flushed and be breathed in or eventually settle on surfaces. Each droplet holding 100s or 1000s of the viruses.
Studies in China have shown that people on a bus were affected by the aerosol infections due to air flow catching it from people who were a few metres in front of them and not even facing them. This was because the flow of normal air circulation carried the virus through the whole bus infecting those who would not be infected as they had not touched surfaces or been in a range of droplet infection. Furthermore the studies showed that a person was infected by a person who had already left the bus 30 minutes before he got on the bus, this is because of the longer time frame of survival and aerosol infection meaning the air was contaminated just waiting to be breathed in. What this means is there is an invisible killer floating around waiting to be breathed in in most places where people infected have been.
So the govt. advice to just wash your hands is misleading and wilfully short of telling the public the truth. Faced with a situation where the known science places them in the situation of there being no real good news or answers on how to stop the spread, they have taken to misleading the public and lying to them. Just washing your hands does not minimise the chances of infection as whilst washing your hands regularly is important, due to the surface contaminations present, as a result of spread through the above means, the advice does not address the fact that the virus is spreading through aerosol infection meaning the virus is airborne for a longer time and distance. The advice is wrong as well as I would say criminally misleading with the aim to ensure the economy does not suffer by people making a wilful decision to stay at home out of risk. I think that I would rather fight the effects and results of the economic crash which is in fact inevitable than a virus that is spread by people who have not symptoms and is capable of being breathed in for long periods of time in enclosed spaces.
I think it is appalling that the govt has failed to take the necessary steps to protect us and has taken to in fact providing the totally lacking advice of just washing our hands. I think this is a wilful misrepresentation of the facts that they rely upon being the science that they suggest is guiding them and in fact it is something that leads us to lose trust and confidence in the present leader of the country the prime minister and that there should be an inquiry as well as the science they are relying upon to be released for public scrutiny.
I also believe that this message must be sent to as many people as possible to ensure they are able to compel the govt to tell us the truth as well as their being able to make decisions as to ensure they are themselves safe knowing the govt has decided to not do this. So please spread this message to as many people as you can.

Children are not affected in that they don't develop the disease and symptoms of that, however, they are carriers in that they get the virus and the virus uses them to spread it around. So schools will be if not already a mixing group where the virus is spread through the children and then to those adults, those children have contact with. This is wy most govts have closed schools. The British govt has suggested that they are not closing schools as then the economy will suffer as many people will not be able to go to work due to childcare reasons. They also know that if people don't work then they will look for the govt to provide the safety net of income support and they don't want this bill going up. There are various petitions asking the govt to close schools please sign them as the govt is making sure that share prices are propped up at the expense of lives. They state we must delay the peak and flatten the curve and close schools- social distancing is the only known method of delay that has to work in China, South Korea, Singapore. They have given the lame excuse of the fact that children will gather elsewhere but they won't because most families will not let this happen. But they're economies have suffered. Do you think money is more important than your lives - if you do make sure the govt knows this?

I think that you miss the point, this is a matter of survival. Im sure you would prefer that your family are safe and there are no deaths rather than waiting for your child to bring the virus home despite all other measures you take. The fact that most have not grasped the severity of what we are talking about is alarming. Somebody in your family will die this year it could be you, your sister, father mother grandchild and potentially it could be all of them. You need to understand what we are facing. Take a look at some of the posts in Italy ignornance is what kills most.

Please see my post. I don't think that a fine from the school or govt is sufficient to outweigh the risk to your family that is posed by the fact your child may walk in one day carrying the virus and you and all other adults may become infected. Furthermore, the plans that if 1 person has symptoms the whole household has to stay in, they won't test you and wont do anything to help. At the peak, there won't be ICU beds and therefore chances of survival are minimal. Unless we face the reality of the situation a lot of unessarary people are going to die we are talking in 100s of thousands we are just at the beginning.

@moshter can you please share the source for methods of transmission? I have tried to keep up to date on research but your post includes more than I've seen so far.

There are several footballers who tested positive just this week and are saying today they feel better already

There was an account by a young Chinese man in the Guardian magazine. He was very ill - thought he came close to not making it.

EVERYBODY SHOULD TAKE NOTE OF THIS

Hi I have read so much material and there was a scientific study done that I read yesterday confirming the aerosol transmission data and values as to spread and time that it can survive on various surfaces. take note of the references made attributable to very prestigious sources.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf

Whilst this article is awaiting peer review I think it is undoubtedly transferred by aerosol as Chinese data had confirmed this before and this is just confirming their conclusions. other articles are a many that have generally commented on this but I look fo science to support my findings and unfortunately, I have read quite a lot and the above is just one of them. The failure of face masks is based upon leakage and entrance through eyes and nose.

a generalised article one of many on the web www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/claims-coronavirus-can-spread-through-the-air

My bias is towards making people aware of the information they need so they can take steps to protect themselves because we are at the beginning of a journey that will get bumpy and harder and poss will change the way the world is for many years to come. People need to prepare for 6 months of survival conditions where there may be no power water etc as the evidence is there is no cure or vaccine on the horizon. Particularly we should take note of the fact that the govt own suggestions provide a picture of at least the next 6 months will be hell.

Don't panic - prepare to do it now.

People need to prepare for 6 months of survival conditions where there may be no power water etc

There was power and water in Wuhan at its height, what do you think is the point of scaremongering like this?

Acceleration has started UK cases 1140 up by 550 today, deaths 21 up 11 serious 20 same as yesterday.

That is a 93% increase in cases,110% increase in deaths (unless my maths is crap) which indicates the start of the vertical line expected but a bit earlier than expected. The estimate was about a week -2 weeks. But without proper procedures like other countries, we should expect figures like this as nobody is doing anything and other countries kept figures down by using containment and isolation figures.

1140 up by 550 today

There were nearly 800 yesterday so your maths is wrong.

As the govt. has stated those who are likley to be infected will have to self isolate and their family members should also do this. No help will be forthcoming until poss the cases need to attend A&E and then it is a lottery if they are overwhelmed. Italy shows that this happens suddenly and looking at the rise of figures today this is clear.

UK govt estimated by computer models likely at least 10 thousand people have it and doubling of this figure is presently about 4 days so 2 days time will be 20000 8 days time will be 40000 12 days time will be 80000 see how the explosion starts. 20 % of the figures for 80000 =1600 will need ICU care about a week after symptoms start, 16000 = 3200 (14 days incubation and 7 days of symptoms before severe respiratory probs and organ failure start) during this all the numbers keep going up so 4 days later 160000 4 days after that 320000 with respective % of those coming to a&e a flood of people look at what happened in Iran they are digging mass graves bigger than football fields. Italy now Spain and then France and then us the ripple like a stone in a pond spreading out from china.

These figures are modelled on cases without interventions, testing containment and isolation (such as is the case in UK the only country not to take action ??? Other countries show these procedures reduce the levels but this is what the exponential modelling shows and reports from gps in Italy are exactly on these lines.

it is clear the govt is not acting in a preventative way so start to become informed and protect yourselves. They are working on an acceptable casualties basis compared to affect on the economic basis and I will deconstruct the channel 4 interview as it is actually made clear by the govt advisors in that interview you just have to listen carefully.

Your life and others in your family depends on this. There are difficult times ahead and I will be posting as much as I can as to set up processes that should be followed. I think the forum should be used to address what is coming with whatever ideas that we can to reduce the spread and protect our families.

Just like the football association did they cancelled all matches on the basis the risk to fans was too great in their eyes as they then go to pubs and other social gatherings. The govt knows this and I have to ask is their decision making based more upon their shareholding and worth dropping as they clearly aren't doing what they could do to save lives. But the investigations are for later now I just want to get the important info out to allow people to make informed decisions to protect themselves and their loved ones.

For instance, children are carriers and the schools should be shut but because of the effect on the economy, they won't even though the rest of the world is doing this.

So make an informed decision to keep your child off if you think this is what you want to do to protect yourself. headmasters themselves are arguing about the risk that this poses to them and their childrens families.

The important thing is to tell others to make people aware so that the govt is forced to take appropriate actions or people have enough info to do this themselves.

I don't understand why people say children aren't at risk when 0.2% of those who have died in the Chinese study of 44'000 cases were children?!

20 % of the figures for 80000 =1600 will need ICU care

20% of 80,000 is 16,000 not 1600.

BUT if you are saying that there are 10,000 cases now, then that means that if 20% need ICU care, we should currently have 2000 people in ICUs with it, and yet we only even have 1,140 confirmed cases.

Which means that the 20% figure is way, way too high.

children aren't at risk

No recorded deaths of children in the 0-9 age bracket. 0.2% in the 10-19 age bracket (not sure how many children actually had it).

It’s very likely that those 0.2% were in a higher risk category.

Obviously there’s a risk to everything, but for children, the coronavirus risk seems very, very low.

@noblegiraffe I would count my 10 year old as a child!

Mine too, kiss. But unless your child has a condition that puts them at specific risk here, then you should probably be more worried about traffic.

thank you for posting @Mohster
I've certainly read that the virus is present in faeces and urine, that it was detected via anal swab for 15% of patients in China.
The government needs to add to its advice poster, alongside washing hands, to put down the toilet lid when flushing otherwise small public cubicles are going to be full of aerosolised particles :-(

@noblegiraffe he has asthma

I have it. I've had it for 3 weeks, during which they refused to test me and now it's at pandemic status, they're no longer testing anyway. But I've got all the symptoms and today I wasn't able to breathe and was too tired to cough. It was very scary. My DH called an ambulance, but they decided that I would do better at home than at hospital, so I wouldn't catch anything else.

My throat and lungs keep getting blocked with mucus and I'm a long way from being better.so I'm self isolating at home and my DH is looking after me.

I've never been as bad with this, I've had malaria and pneumonia but I've never before had the experience of not being able to breathe.