Worried about coronavirus part 11

[GPwife2411]

Previous thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3837712-Worried-about-coronavirus-part-10?pg=10

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

Does everyone returning from Tenerife have to self isolate? There are a bunch of kids here who haven't. I assumed not but....

Thanks @SansaSnark

Reasons for needing LEA permission to pull dc out of school :

your dc has an attendance order

your dc lives in Scotland/ Wales ?

your dc has social services involvement (i.e your crazy friend/ mother/ postman called them

a teacher thinks you are being hysterical

for most hopefully they would have no problems ?

The U.K. is not just following the European lead though. We have done less than most of the rest of Europe. As ever, we are also swayed by the u.s. version of the hand book. I worry about the influence of people like Steve Bannon in the American response. There are players on the other side of the Atlantic that have been itching for an apocalypse type situation for many years now, so they can enact disaster capitalism at its finest.

Anyone have further info on Carlisle case? Can see 'Carlisle area' on report.

@YoursTunbridgeWells No- Tenerife isn't even on the isolate if you have symptoms list. People returning from the hotel are a separate case.

• or your dc has SEN

These threads move so quickly! Thank you to the poster who answered by queries re the low death rate in South Korea. I hope you're right and that 0.5% would be the death rate if we could catch all the really minor cases.

I heard one better than 'it's only the flu' today - my colleague said 'it's so annoying, it's just a cold'.

I go back and forth on how worried I am by how much I can log onto mumsnet, I think! When I read this thread I find it all really worrying but, so far, I've seen and heard nothing in real life to suggest anyone around me is giving it a second thought. Except the supermarket being sold out of hand sanitiser.

I suppose, to try and keep it in perspective, the numbers are tiny. Even 2000ish cases in Italy is only the size of a fairly small village. The chances of actually meeting someone with CV in the UK at the moment are infinitesimally low. Even if we end up with China's 80 000 cases, it's still not very many compared to the size of the population as a whole. The 60-80% will catch it suggestions are really scary though. It's hard to see how 'they' can predict such huge numbers.

amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/thousands-of-intensive-care-patients-to-be-tested-for-covid-19?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Thousands of intensive care patients to be tested for Covid-19
NHS bosses in England ramp up efforts to detect virus amid fears it is circulating in ICUs

Thousands of patients in intensive care will be tested for signs of the coronavirus amid fears that it is circulating among units treating people who are seriously ill in hospital.

NHS bosses have ramped up their efforts to detect the virus by ordering all 135 acute hospital trusts in England to routinely test anyone in intensive care units (ICUs) who has a breathing problem.

They are worried that people who are already very sick in hospital with different illnesses could be infected with the virus by a fellow patient.

The plan is a direct response to the detection of Covid-19 in patients in intensive care units in Europe whose illness cannot be traced to any of the areas where the virus is circulating, such as northern Italy. Staff working in these units have also contracted the virus.

And

The move came to light in a letter sent to all NHS organisations on Tuesday by Prof Keith Willett, the senior doctor co-ordinating NHS England’s efforts against the virus. In it he told trusts: “In recent days, new Covid-19 infections have been diagnosed in intensive care units in a number of European countries, without any epidemiologial links to high risk areas.

“Nosocomial [hospital-acquired] transmission has occurred in these units affecting other patients and staff. It is essential that we detect cases admitted to intensive care at the earliest opportunity. We are requesting that all intensive care units and severe respiratory (Ecmo) centres commence case detection.”

Adult and paediatric ICUs should test any patient whose “presenting condition is an acute community acquired respiratory infection of any kind, regardless of known or suspected causative pathogen and clinical features”, the nine-page letter said.

This is good proactive stuff

Protecting those most at risk by early detection is really important as we've seen in Washington and Italy.

@OhDearWhyAmIFatterly - asked DH and it depends on the symptoms you presented with, really.

Very sensible plan although I'm a bit surprised we haven't been testing patients admitted to ICU due to respiratory illness already

They probably have.....

@SansaSnark thank you.

@RedToothBrush Agreed positive news. I still believe in certain instances, the critical care numbers and CFR are influenced by the fact that the virus has caught hold of a vulnerable population.

I think that's a really important measure, especially given the death reported in Spain today.

Just placemarking

@Ive

The Carlisle case is apparently a husband and wife who have recently returned from Italy but not the North. Scary stuff just said today can't see it getting up here as we are such a small place!

@GPwife2411 thanks for checking, to be honest, I came away with "it's just a virus" but am currently in bed with raging pain in my ear and neck so pretty sure it is an ear infection!
I guess it's like any profession, some people better than others!

RTB, that is good news. I do think we are putting a good amount of effort into detecting the point at which we switch from imported infections to widespread community transmissions. I think the relatively low rate of increase and external sourcing of almost all cases means we are not yet in a position, like Italy, or South Korea, where we suddenly uncover a node of community transmission that’s already been developing for some time. The doctor in Essex is the biggest worry, but it’s good that he was found through random testing, rather than discovered through presentation of complications of the virus at a hospital.
I think these random tests of clinics, hospitals and cases presenting with pneumonic diseases is something we are doing particularly well as a country.

In a similar vein this article from the US

www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-elderly/perfect-storm-washington-virus-deaths-highlight-risk-at-nursing-homes-idUSKBN20Q1B8?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter
'Perfect Storm': Washington virus deaths highlight risk at nursing homes

“One thing that is clear is that nursing homes and hospitals are potentially at greater risk, and we are really going to have to think hard about what can be done to protect them,” Tom Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told a media briefing on Monday.

If the outbreak spreads, Frieden said, U.S. officials might have to consider new steps to protect the more than 1.3 million Americans in nursing homes, such as curtailing visits to reduce the risk of introducing the virus to them.

And

Keeping the virus away from nursing homes and other facilities with vulnerable residents will likely take restrictions on who can enter the buildings, with no sick people allowed inside, said Frieden. In the meantime, he said more outbreaks similar to the one in Washington are likely.

“This is a sentinel event. We are going to see this elsewhere,” he said.

It is good to see NHS bosses recognising the sentinel event of ICU cases being a feature in Europe. There is less coordination / centralised decision making when it comes to social care though.

We could do with ideas like restrictions on visitors to care homes and plans to deal with home visit carers particularly with regard to potential illness and staff shortages. I've not heard anything on this score yet and this is where robust planning and prep should be going.

nellodee the UK may be doing less but so far it doesn't seem to be as bad here.

Maybe it is circulating and we just don't know but I would have thought it would have been all over social media if there were clusters in places that hadn't been identified.

So basically is what other countries doing actually worthwhile?

@OhDearWhyAmIFatterly - hmm, DH says that sounds a bit too painful to be classically viral. Might be worth getting seen again? Hope you feel better soon.

Thanks so much @GPwife2411, I will try to get another appointment for tomorrow x

Random 18, I think that’s kind of what the government was hinting at today, when they said that things like closing schools might only work well when done in conjunction with a whole bunch of other things. I wonder if the models show that yes, what China did worked, but if you do a third of what they do, it won’t have a third of the effect. Maybe you have to do it all to get the whole effect, or you get much less of a benefit. I have no clue. I hope someone does, though! I’d actually love to have chosen a career path to get into this kind of modelling, I think it would be absolutely fascinating.

Gp wife, whenever I've presented myself or dc at docs, when it's classified as viral, docs always been laid back... Is viral better than bacterial?.

Generally speaking for a GP there’s not much can be done about most viruses (yes, I know there’s some exceptions). Whereas for bacterial infections they’d prescribe antibiotics.