Worried about coronavirus part 10

[GPwife2411]

Previous thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3836973-To-be-worried-about-coronavirus-part-9

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

Struggling to understand percentages.

@screamer1 but HOW do we take extra care when those who it won't affect very badly are just acting like nothing has changed?
Just washing my hands is not going to stop people who aren't very ill with it, going on the bus or carrying on working. Just takes one to cough near me and then I have it.

I agree @ofwarren

It's easy to say no big deal most people, But for those who are vulnerable it is. I worry about my 78 year old mum who had a heart attack last year.

Is there a figure which shows the death rate of people who are vulnerable such as the elderly and immune suppressed?
What percentage of people in that category die?

Has any information yet emerged about re-infection? I recollect that some were saying that people who had suffered from minor effects of COVID19 and then were reinfected, were suffering much, much more as a result. It was my understanding that the greater impact upon re-infection was behind the deaths of the young doctors who died.

There was a graph of % on Sky News last night, it might be on the website somewhere. According to that I have 11.3% chance of dying. Seems a lot to me , I am terrified.

@ofwarren
Surely people who are confirmed with the virus are not going out and about?

Percentages article

linkwww.theguardian.com/education/2016/mar/07/a-fifth-of-uk-adults-have-forgotten-how-to-do-fractions-or-percentages-mathematics-english-science

ofWarren, without looking this up, I seem to recollect that the death rate of the over 80s who were infected was in the region of 18% in China. I don;t think we have any figures of the death rate of people with other health issues as the details of those who have died haven't been released.

11.3% what is that category if you mind me asking? Is it age?

IneptBafoon - I haven't seen anything which suggests that the death rate would be that high in the population at large.

I am 50 with heart prob

Inept - I can understand why you are worried, but I'm fairly sure that no-one is saying that the death rate would be anywhere near as high as 11%. I think the figure that has been used is 1-2% of the people who are infected - and not everyone will be infected.

I would like the gov to set up a website for people to suggest ways to help on the ground locally this crisis. There may be good ideas out there which would be worth setting up in advance and spreading round the country. They were talking about altruism and it would be good to harness that in an organised way rather than waiting for spontaneous acts of kindness when it's all gone chaotic.

I was thinking for a start if Foodbanks could be told automatically if a service user was quarantined the food bank could contact them to deliver food. Would avoid people with no food stores having to either starve or go out when they shouldn't.

@BunsyGirl Just thought I would update you on the situation in the UAE, as I previously said in thread 8 that you shouldn’t come.

I’ve completely changed my mind now! On reflection, the UAE is handling it a lot better than the UK. I thought they were trying to hide a massive outbreak, but now I know people who have been tested I no longer believe this to be the case.

The testing protocols that kick into action if you present at a medical centre with symptoms seem to be shit hot.

They are being very proactive about trying to stop it from gaining traction. Face masks are being strongly discouraged, hand washing is being VERY strongly encouraged (posters everywhere in multiple locations), there is 60+% alcohol hand gel appearing in dispensers literally everywhere including by elevators, doors and on walls in cafes etc. I am really impressed. I’ve also been told by Italian friends that they have received courtesy calls from the Ministry of Health to check they are OK and not feeling unwell. (Presumably they are doing this for other nationalities from risky countries too).

It’s a very clean country anyway, but there are armies of cleaning staff out everywhere keeping everywhere spotless.

Most companies are now encouraging staff to work from home and nurseries are shut. After school activities are pretty much banned and I think the schools will close imminently.

Having seen Boris’s press conference today, I think they’re doing a much better job than the UK at keeping it at bay and I’d definitely recommend you come here now.

Good idea, IveGotBillsTheyreMultiplying. Even if it's just to ring people up and have a chat if they are stuck on their own in a lockdown situation.

I think that it is not as simple as saying only people over 70 and those with health conditions are mainly effected and those who are healthy will be ok. I remember reading that a 38 yr old Italian man who was a super fit marathon runner has been in intensive care with this.

Additionally, several of the doctors in China who died were young.
I have asked people who know more about this than I do and they say it is about viral load. So someone working all day with people shedding large amounts of virus is asking alot of their immune system.

Maybe this is why large clusters like Italy and the S Korea one in the church are also due to the amount of viral load built up in the environment as well as increasing the chances of actually getting it.

So to me, containing it as long as possible can only help rather than giving up and letting huge clusters develop.

Just my ignorant 2 pennies worth..

My consultant has advised that I don't stop taking immune suppressants due to the seriousness of my condition, so looks like I'll have to self isolate. But I do need to attend hospital appointments.

feesh what makes you think the UK is not doing a good job.

Bear in mind that Boris will be guided by experts.

I don't know if they are or not. But why are we not as in bad a state at this time as some other countries?

Is it just that we haven't identified the cases and it's a lot worse than we realise.

Or is it that so far contact tracing has actually worked quite well.

I don't think we really know at the moment if the UK is managing it well or not.

That's a great idea. A register of people locally who can be matched to someone who might need help. Only works if the helper is allowed out. Older people could get ill and no one would know if they don't have regular visitors.

We need to know how many people are aged, say 60+ in this country. Then work out 1% of that. That number is potentially the number of people who may die.

I found that there are 12 million (11,989,322) people aged 65 and above in the UK (Age UK, link below) so let's take that figure and work out 1% of 12 million. That would be 1/100 x 12,000,000 = 120,000!! So potentially if every 65+ year old caught the virus, 120,000 could die. That's a very rough calculation. I think if you put THAT out there, people would sit up and listen.

www.ageuk.org.uk/globalassets/age-uk/documents/reports-and-publications/later_life_uk_factsheet.pdf

Hearing lots of local reports that a Drs surgery near me basically kicked all patients out yesterday to do a deep clean because of a suspected case (different people saying they DO have it others saying suspected) but were back open again after an hour? People in hazmat suits were seen outside. I keep Googling for info but can't find anything out.

@MyPartInHistory From what I understand it was the sheer volume of virus that the younger doctors had been exposed to which made the virus more potent

@feesh Qatar seems to be all over it as well. I wish I was still there rather than back in the UK, I'd feel a lot safer.

Society is depressingly ageist,and disablist. That's part of the issue.