AIBU to think people are overreacting to Coronavirus?

I believe WHO above my own government right now but it seems to be a case of wait and see.

You see I feel the WHO response has been pretty poor.

The CDC is the first place I look for a deeper dive into what's happening with it:

www.cdc.gov/media/dpk/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus/coronavirus-2020.html

This started out as an animal virus the new Covid-19 virus can trigger the immune system to give such an intense reaction that it takes you down in the process. It called a cykotine storm.

It has an R0 of 4-6.7 v's 1.2 of flu 20%+ serious complication rate. Up to 24 day asymptomatic contagious incubation period. There is also zero herd immunity.

Someone with heart disease the death rate is increased to 10% and diabetes 7.3% along with many more health concerns it can raise the rate alarmingly.

The msgs between my mate and I are all very back and forth.
One day she is in full panic mode and I am telling her to relax, the next I am in panic mode.
Earlier on my mate messages me in full swing! I tell her to stop reading the news etc. I get home from work and my 6 year old has a full on cough. Baring in mind my colleague who I work close with has had a cough, she goes to school (germ fest). I am now in full panic mode. Only 5 hours ago I was eye rolling my friends message.
DP has bad asthma, he has been hospitalised when he has had just a cold, it took 3 days to get his breathing under control. I am now petrified! I am sure tomorrow I will be more rational!

YABU, OP.

It's not the flu.

Information is still being gathered but right now it looks like Covid-19 has a much higher transmission rate, a higher mortality rate, no available vaccine and no information on whether this virus is seasonal.

The reason why there have been so "few" cases is BECAUSE authorities are reacting to contain the virus, not because it isn't a threat.

The fact that this has reached Italy and caused an outbreak despite containment and quarantine policies and the fact that the most recent outbreak has no as-yet clear link to China is concerning because that means it's spreading faster than it can be traced.

60-80% is a transmission rate that's been quoted a lot for covid-19, based on still early data.

So forget about the mortality rate just for a moment. Imagine even just a normal case of flu (and i mean proper flu, not 'the cold') , except 60-80% of the population were suddenly and quickly affected. What would that do to schools, infrastructure, hospitals, care homes, travel, imports, exports etc?

Now picture that but with a higher death rate. Picture 60-80% of the population infected by a virus that kills even 1-2% of those infected. There won't be a vaccine for months, maybe a year plus. In a population the size of the UK, if covid-19 spreads unchecked d that could mean around 40 million or more infected. Even 1% mortality from that leaves 400,000 dead. That's the reality of a pandemic situation. That's what people are currently working round the clock to avoid through containment measures.

And I hate to say it but people like OP are the ones who, in an almost pandemic situation like this are the ones who make it worse. Because the people who underreact are the ones who say "it's only a bit of a cough" and show up to work or take the tube or have a coughing fit on a crowded bus. They're the ones who get on a plane and infect fellow passengers, who then go on and carry the disease to their respective countries.

Complacency and ignorance is how a global pandemic gets off the ground despite best efforts to contain it.

If this does turn out to be "nothing", it won't be because people were overreacting. It'll be because they were reacting exactly enough to stop it in time.

I'm 40, eat a very healthy diet, exercise lots, am teetotal, trying to get pregnant via ivf and according to you I can just go off and die because I have an underlying health condition? Thanks for that.

My father is 80 and not in the best of health. He spent 10 days in hospital last spring with a lung infection following flu.

My Mam is 60 and waiting for surgery, and also waiting for cancer test results.

I'm an asthmatic, I had a chest infection in November which saw me almost have an asthma attack and take a week off work.

My MIL is 60 and has Parkinsons disease. Her mother, my GMIL, is 93. My neighbour on my left is 92. My neighbour on my right is 82.

My grandparents are 81 and 85. My Aunt is in poor health, and awaiting similar surgery to my mother.

I'm concerned, of course I am. The elderly and those with underlying health conditions aren't expendable. Funnily enough we'd quite like to live!

I think the genie is out of the bottle now, really.

RocketFire
"wonder how it affects pregnant women"

There's been a few pregnant women reported with it, whose new born are shaking off the infection. Healthy children don't seem to develop it, their immune system hold up against it.

"Because the people who underreact are the ones who say "it's only a bit of a cough" and show up to work or take the tube or have a coughing fit on a crowded bus."

Like the Chinese woman who decided against the advice, phoned a taxi and sat in A&E.

DH, who is not inclined to worry, is a bit concerned that panic buying could be triggered soon and I've agreed he can quietyly stock up on some stuff (that we'll use anyway) at Costco this week - neither of us is too bothered about health threat but more worried about general inconvenience.

For a start, we have a new au pair starting in under a fortnight, so I really hope movement isn't curtailed or she doesn't get too worried about it to come first world pandemic mumsnet problems

It needs to be taken seriously, I've been following the outbreak on Reddit which has a very good sub on the virus. They mark items as unconfirmed if there is no evidence to support a post.

There was a brilliant post on why we need to take this seriously

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f8k2nj/whysarscov22isnottjusttheefluwithhsources/?utmsource=share&utmmmedium=iosapp&utmmname=iossmf

We don't have immunity to this illness, it's brand new and we should be concerned.

We should be taking precautions to ensure good hygiene etc and we should be paying attention to the news on this. If there is an outbreak our hospitals will be on their knees, it won't just people ill with the virus suffering it will be anyone that is ill. Do you think a person who had a heart attack in Wuhan would have been able to get specialist care whilst this was happening. We need to be taking sensible precautions to look after ourselves

Average waiting times in A&E are four plus hours. Do people honestly think our hospitals will cope if thousands of people get ill at the same time?

A couple statements posted here I don't think there's good evidence for:

Claims that r0 is 6.0 or anything above 3, really
Spread by asymptomatic people

I'm open to seeing good evidence to back up either of those claims.

I read some write-ups on MedrXiv saying r0=6.0... NOT peer-reviewed estimates, and based on models and very incomplete case histories.

I guess depends what you call over-reaction. Worrying deeply about something you have no control over and may never happen = my definition of over-reaction, but I guess it's like an itch you can't resist scratching, or worry is a habit of lifetime not about to change now.

@Bunbunbunny

Thanks that is a brilliant post. I really don't understand how this comparison to flu deaths has been used to support the idea that it's NOT a concern...it is the statistics that compare it to flu that scare me most.

I realise mass hysteria is not helpful, but neither is spreading around ideas that encourage complacency!

so no further input from the op??

interesting

Those of you who are saying this isn’t a big deal, wow, you’re in a fine position to say that given where you live. I imagine Ebola is exaggerated BS as well isn’t it? Let the actual people suffering deal with it.
The news coverage on the Coronavirus has actually been quite consistent and fair and as someone who’s in the medical field yes I’m extremely concerned about this virus.
To compare this to the common flu based on statistics, information and vaccines we’ve been collecting and working on for decades is ludicrous. The flu hospitalises 0.05% of people affected and has been proven to be less than half as contagious as the Coronavirus. Forget the fact that we have vaccines for this and we know that come March we can accurately say that common flu cases will drop dramatically.
As for this virus? We know absolutely nothing, other than that it’s incredibly contagious, it’s causing at least 5% of those affected to become critically ill (this includes organ failure/septic shock and pneumonia to name just a few complications), and the scariest thing of all is we have absolutely no idea how long this is going to go on for and how far and fast it’s going to spread. So for those of you taking precautions you are absolutely doing the right thing for you and your families, for those of you saying it’s a hyped up croc? Maybe try to educate yourselves a little better and be just a fraction more sympathetic to the thousands who are currently hospitalised (or lost a loved one) across the globe with this.

Let's hope the worst anyone in here has to deal with is self isolation with their family. Please pop over to the Preppers topic - active thread there on this issue- which is full of sensible advice. The op on there sets out useful basic stuff in every op(iyswim). You don't have to Be a Prepper to take some sensible steps. Prepping isn't about being a red neck shit kicker with a tin foil hat.

It’s crap - we don’t know a lot about it - people are dying - but seriously you can’t do much about it - worrying is a waste of time! The planet is dying anyway so there’s l out a of things to be worried about. I’d just stop being so worried and enjoy your life ! Sure you could be hit by a bus tomorrow and then all this worrying would have been a waste of your last day.

It has already started to interfere with my plans.

I actually think most people are under reacting and I inc the U.K. govt in that.

One of my friends here in the uk is from China, still has family there so she knows the precautions/sanctions people are living under. She’s shocked by how poor the official advice is here. We’ve had 2 people at work who have come back from China in the last month (one from whuhan) both felt poorly on return. Both had been mixing with other people at work before feeling poorly and HR just rang people to tell them but said still come into work. Other people then felt poorly but came into work.

In China everyone would have been swabbed. Here they haven’t, I suspect there’s a lot of people in the uk who have it/have had it and don’t know. For the majority they won’t be that ill.

I’m worried in the next few weeks it will blow up massively. The nhs can’t cope with a hospitilsation rate of 20% if large numbers catch it.

Will probably be given a kicking for this but, we have to die of something, old and medically vulnerable people are and always will be in the front line of many diseases, and that is life. What irks me is the reaction to the reality that - like it's some kind of unfairness or unreasonableness that there are diseases that humanity can not prevent that will actually go on to kill (some) of us. In terms of diseases, the old are likely to die before someone in their prime who is also likely to die after said disease kills off the very young. Evolution demands this. We are fucking monsters if we think we can improve on or make evolution dance to our preferences.

It's just so new and everything is unknown. Even if they made a vaccine, we don't know anything about that either.
I hope it gets under control soon. Are scientists in every country working on this?

What is the point of worrying about it though? Take precautions if possible but panicking about it is going to change nothing.

I can't say I want to get it but if I do I do. We are all going to die one day and if it's from coronovirus then so be it.

We always have loads of food in the house, easily enough for a couple of months so not worried on that score.

The planet is so overpopulated it must be on the cards that something is going to kill a lot of us off

I have severe autoimmune conditions. I am one of the people likely to be seriously ill if I get it. Am I worried about getting it? Fuck no. If it spreads as easily as it seems to be there’s no point worrying about it at all. We will all likely get it. People die from normal flu every year. People like me are just as likely to die from a complication related to some other normal illness (I had severe complications from shingles a few years ago). You can’t spend your whole life worrying about everything, it’s a waste of your life. Could be hit by a car tomorrow. You have to trust the health authorities are doing the best they can and just forget about it.