AIBU to think people are overreacting to Coronavirus?

[NotHereToMakeFriends]

Okay, I'll admit that it's bad and a lot of people have died from it but if you read up on it you have a limited chance of actually getting sick. Most people who have gotten sick are elderly, underlying health issues or have worked themselves down such as the doctors/nurses who are working themselves sick to try and help others.

I think people are just being scared into thinking that it's worse than it should be.

So, 0.0055% of the population have had it and 0.0002% of the population have died from it

I think the fact that it’s been so well contained in China is down to how strictly they’ve enforced the quarantine measures. Certainly in most if not all provinces life has come to a halt. My friends mother lives in China....nobody is working apart from medical staff, police, soldiers, food shop workers. Life has ground to a halt. People are allowed out once every 3 days to buy food, with temp checks before entering shops. Everyone at home has to take their temp at set times every day and report all readings.

Would we do that here? Would people obey such rules? Could they be enforced? I doubt it.

I think it’s probably already spread a lot further than we think. It’s been around for months. Plane loads of people have been travelling all over the world during that time. It would be silly to think that the cases we know about are the only ones there are.

whatshould no I'm mostly in favour of medical process. My point is not that we should not do our human ingenuity stuff where and when we can, but that we also have to accept that we cannot outthink death and that evolution means survival of the fittest so when humans are exposed to threats to the physical self - drowning at sea, in an ice age, malaria, whatever - then babies and old and sick peoples will die first.

I do think western medicine has gone bonkers by chasing the "don't let people die no matter the consequences" dream: we have to die. That's the long and short of it. Dying at 100 after 20 years of dementia, misery and pain, because you have been kept going by the miracles of modern medicine, is lunacy, when we have not got adequate treatments for eg the common cold or cystitis or whatever. The focus of medicine is wrong. Let's see if we can transplant a pigs heart into this human, rather than let's see if we can find new pain relief treatments.

I'll freely admit, I'm scared. I have bad asthma and almost died from swine flu, I have parents in their late 70s and a grandma of almost 100, as well as a child with a compromised immune SYSTEM. It seems to be spreading so fast.

That’s the thing though, it’s probably been spreading for months. We just weren’t as aware of it as we are now.

Flu season happens every year right, up to a billion affected and thousands die. Money is spent every year sorting out and giving a vaccine. Bad season hospital become overrun and difficult to find beds for patients. That happens every year

Then add in another virus who needs a different vaccine (if you can find one) who affects the same number of people doubling up. That’s the fear that’s why they want to contain it

Don't get me wrong, of course it is serious, but some people are going overboard panicking about it (the other main Corona thread on here has everyone stockpiling). I've seen it discussed on other forums with people saying stuff like this:

A: "I work in a gym and everyone needs to use hand sanitizers"
B: "I'm a medical professional, please don't use hand sanitizers but just use good old soap and water thoroughly" (and explained why)
C: "we all need to use hand sanitizers"
D: "a medical professional just said don't"
C: "oh. well I haven't actually read up on it and medical professionals don't know everything"

And then people posting things they've seen other people post which are clearly nonsense but insisting it's right because they saw it on the internet. And "wear masks" or "it must be type 1 mask not type 2 or 3" or "masks won't help whatsoever".

This is half the problem.

I'm afraid it's a fact of life that we die. From something. There will always be new viruses that sadly will affect some people more seriously than others; usually those who already have some underlying issues or the elderly (some 'experts' are saying Corona seems to have a more serious impact on smokers and the Chinese and Koreans are, generally, much heavier smokers than the Western world).

250,000 go to A&E each year from an injury sustained falling on stairs. That's three times the number of people who've been confirmed as having Corona in China. 1,000 die from falling down stairs each year (that's around 1/3 of the deaths from Corona in China).

Around 37% of people who get Ebola die from it. Around 3% of people who get Corona die from it. Perspective is required. Yes, treat it seriously but people aren't listening enough to medical professionals.

According to news sources today the Government planning for worst case scenario is where 50 million of the population get it and 500,000 of us die. That's 80% of the entire country catching it with a 10% death rate.

That's spurious and scaremongering when nowhere has got even 1% of their population with Corona and where people have got it the death rate is circa 3% (as in China and Italy).

The death rate as of today is 8%. You can only calculate the death rate from outcome cases. Currently 8% of those cases which are resolved have died and 92% have survived.

It is dropping gradually but it isn't 2-3% yet. That is the level that the WHO believe it will ultimately settle at but its currently 8%.

@shatnerswig 500,000 would be a 1%

Holly yes, rogue typo zero in there, stupid.

Hasa I take your point in that's how official figures are properly monitored, but to your average person in the street, I think they grasp it better the other way and it is less scary to help with the perspective. I should perhaps use the words "so far" to clarify. In Italy there are 322 cases and 11 deaths so far which equates to a death rate of 3.5%. Worldwide, there are 81,133 cases and 2,765 deaths so far which again is 3.5%.

An 8-10 percent death rate wouldn't be particularly surprising at this stage even when you include all known cases. The WHO update yesterday said that they were hoping that the number of mild cases would mean the death rate was lower in china but actually they are pretty confident that china has been capturing a very high proportion of cases. This makes china's death rate of around 10% (also reflected in the current number of critical cases they have) far more accurate than was previously thought. Likewise if you look at the number of serious/critical cases in other emerging hotspots - Italy, Japan, Korea, ten percent is about right when you look at the number of deaths and serious/critical cases as a proportion of all known cases.

I thought they were saying the Wuhan figures, which are that high, are because of the sudden onset/overwhelmed med care facilities and that elsewhere it is settling at around 3%?

No they currently hope/think that the number of mild cases will reduce the death rate to a lower percentage but the recent visit to China has thrown doubt on that since they are confident that China is very on top of its cases (due to the severe measures that have imposed).

Yes but that doesnt account for the asympotmatic cases that they saw on the Diamond Princess. I think that is what will tell us quite a lot as in effect everyone was tested.

China can only be on top of those that show symptoms for which is is probably correct that it is 8-10%

The asympotmatic cases for that dont seem to have been updated for awhile though

20% need hospitalisation - that's potentially a need for about 2 million hospital beds in London alone...

I’m not particularly concerned on a personal level. But in terms of the impact on an already stretched to breaking point NHS I am extremely worried.

In Wuhan c 20% cases required ITU care. This is a potentially scary figure in terms of NHS capacity. The logistics of mass swabbing / screening prioritising & assessing pts with flu like symptoms is also worrying to me. We don’t have the infrastructure/rapidity of response in place for this.

I’m also concerned for elderly/ frail / those with chronic diseases who may be directly or indirectly ( due to reduced resources) be impacted.

Also probably horrendous for anyone with health anxiety & the worry is perhaps more damaging to health than the risk of contracting the virus itself.

That’s 20%hospitalised patients still potentially v impactful on resources.

The WHO have talked about a need for countries to prepare more re hospital beds etc. We don't do quick building here. So that surely means changing the priorities on what cases get hospitalisation and cancelling surgeries.

And this is the current state of affairs before anything happens...

There is a good Twitter thread here giving a summary of the WHO press briefing yesterday:
mobile.twitter.com/juliaoftoronto/status/1232323122654826497

Includes this: "Important finding: not huge transmission beyond what you can see clinically, Aylward says. I think that means subclinical/asymp transmission is not that significant.

Also: "Main driver is not widespread community transmission;" it's transmission in households.

Also said that healthcare workers were mainly infected within households, not in hospitals.

Worth reading the whole thread though.

Well yes and no. I'm not worrying about it but am keeping an eye on the news and glad I have no imminent travel plans. However, two weeks ago ,my family in Northern Tuscany would have said the same thing. This week they are pretty worried, especially as one is in their late seventies with MS and another is a child with a congenital heart defect. Things can change very quickly.

Do clinical staff looking after these patients have to remain isolated too or just change,wash hands and go home?
We just need one child getting it after a school trip to Italy for the press to whip us into a frenzy.

I have 2 very young kids, the youngest of whom has on going breathing issues. I'm scared. Not doing anything different as yet except more hand washing.

Yes, I am overreacting because I know it would kill my 12 year old who has one of those inconvenient 'underlying health conditions'. Oh well.