US - Iran Peace agreement Part 3

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https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/conflict-in-the-middle-east/5535141-us-iran-peace-agreement-part-2https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/conflict-in-the-middle-east/5535141-us-iran-peace-agreement-part-2

I go out for a few hours and return to this madness. So many questions and no answers.
Is the protection money for transiting on the Iranian side too?
Did Oman agree to this?
What happens if a ship owner refuses to pay? Send them to Aligator Alcatraz until they pay up? Blast them out of the water?

There's a reason why Trump was called Mafia Don(ald). He up to his old construction tricks of stiffing everyone. In effect, he is taxing all the GCC countries and the world. It's not just oil that passes through the Strait.
I'm waiting for the response from China. That new road through Saudi will have money thrown at it now.
And once again, Trump is playing into Iran's hands.

Ha ha, I rounded down because the number was so mad, The US GDP is $31 trillion. So this new "income" is 3.6 x the US economy.

That makes his $1.5 trillion defense budget for next year look like peanuts.

And to think about what they said when Iran was charging $1 per barrel toll.

Wow
That does put it into perspective

But Iran will fight back, as is their right, and I can see things getting far worse

Trump wants to be able to say that his war has not cost taxpayers anything because the US will be rolling in it when the protection money comes in. It's a deflection from increased COL they've been already paying since the war started.

In an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, the US president suggested the US is closely tracking Iranian targets but would not discuss operational details.

We’re going to hit them very hard tonight, and we’re going to hit them hard tomorrow.

Asked whether the US or Israeli military knew the whereabouts of Iran’s remaining military leadership and whether they could target them, Trump responded:
Yeah, I do, but we don’t want to talk about that. But we certainly are watching.

Trump also told Hewitt that the memorandum of understanding the two countries signed was a “test” and that Iran had not honoured it.
It was sort of a test, and they weren’t there. They didn’t honor the test.

He added that it “didn’t mean much”.
Memorandum of understanding when you’re dealing with sleazebags don’t mean much, and they don’t mean much when you’re dealing with honourable people, too, because it’s a memorandum of understanding. It doesn’t mean much.

Hilarious

Words fail me
I feel sick listening to this sleaze bag
How many more have to die at the hands of these mad men

.
https://x.com/araghchi/status/2076728062662557961?s=20

The escalation has escalated.
US hit several sites in Southern Iran today.
Iranian state television, citing the Iranian army, says Tehran has targeted a "hostile" US vessel with cruise missiles and launched drone attacks against US military facilities and equipment in Kuwait.
And the several 'violating' vessels have been targetted in the Strait.

Oil price jumped more than 9% in one day, so more dosh for Trump to collect and more pain for the rest of the world. He said the fees started immediately, so is the money going into the same Qatari bank account that the money from selling Venezuelan crude went? The same bank account that Trump controls.

The Houthis are considering closing the Bab El Mandeb Strait, so they are now exchanging fire with Saudi.

Brilliant. Can Tuesday top today 🤔

I think what distracted me with the shear size of those ciggie packet calculations was that although the numbers are massive, its usually a few cents, or bucks, a barrel industry. It's massive pie for sure, but it feeds a lot of mouths. So usually the people eating that pie only get a spoon or two each. And now along comes Trump, and he does not have a spoon. He arrives with a bucket excavator to scoop up his pie.

And, I hate to defend big oil here, it's such a complex industry that I can barely get my head around how it works. The oil companies will want a high price of course, but too high and it will impact sales. Too low and many wells will not be economically viable.

And on wells being economically viable, I looked up Venezuela oil, that Trump now has a massive stake in.

"The $100 per barrel threshold cited by energy analysts represents the approximate crude oil price level necessary to make large portions of Venezuela’s heaviest reserves economically viable for commercial development, meaning that at current price levels around $60 per barrel, significant portions of the declared reserve base remain stranded assets lacking commercial viability"

I have no idea of the accuracy of that, but a large amount of VZ reserves need a $100 price to be viable. And aint it a massive coincidence, that the guy who seized VZ oil just put 20% on the price of 25% of the world supply of oil.

Edit. Add source for VZ oil data.

Venezuela Oil Statistics 2026 | Key Facts - The World Data

A clear connection there Redtag

Trump claimed his attack on Venezuela was to capture Maduro and free the people —
it’s clear it was all about the oil

Trump claims his aims in Iran were to take out the leader and give freedom to the people
-it’s clear it was all about the oil

Trump doesn't do anything unless he has something to gain
Make America and mainly Trump great again by whatever means necessary including death and destruction

There’s been US AIS trolling in the strait today with the Jersey devil aparently going up and down all day

I've got red tracker marks all over the place on Maritime traffic

I think Donny forgets that things actually get put in writing. From the Washington Post:

“The preliminary deal that Trump signed last month with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian “was built to test,” Trump said. “Look, memorandum of understanding when you’re dealing with sleaze bags don’t mean much.”
Iranians “didn’t honor the test. We had it, we had this deal settled numerous times. I said, ‘Watch, I guarantee. Watch.’ And they never, they never followed it,” Trump said Monday, suggesting that he had always expected that Tehran would violate the deal.
It was a stark difference from last month, when he wrote on social media that the “Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region. Many presidents have tried to make Peace with Iran, and all have failed before me. The Leaders of the Region have, for the first time, found a President who can help them achieve real Peace.”

The UAE accused Iran of a “brazen attack” in the SoH last night, killing an Indian crew member and wounding eight others, four of which were serious.

Six of those injured were Indian and two were Ukrainian, the UAE Ministry of Defence said in a statement on X.

Trump told Fox News, “we are taking over the Strait”. Centrom said its forces “will resume blockading maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports” on 14th July at 4pm ET.

TACO Tuesday. His Modus Operandi.

I see Iran are trolling him, from CNN.

“POTUS is absolutely right,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X, arguing that Trump had legitimized Tehran’s position on charging for passage through the vital waterway. Araghchi added archly: “20% is of course too much. We will be fair.”

What a waste of time, discussing the MOU and UNCLOS, He just makes it up as he goes along. So really it comes down to ammo counting, and what we should be discussing is trying to figure out when the carpet bombing begins. Because the US has limited precision ammo, but practically unlimited dumb bombs.

But seeing how his mind works, in two week timespans, I think he is working on the idea that if he can collect X million a day tolls from the strait, that money can translate, within 2 weeks, into unlimited Tomahawk missiles. Because from what I have seen, he seems to be uncapable of understanding manufacturing capacity and those other pesky details. So I reckon give it a few days, till the missile makers say (yet again)" No Mr President, we can't give you 2k tomahawks in 2 weeks, he will change again, to yet another wonder 2 week plan.

The Leaders of the Region have, for the first time, found a President who can help them achieve real Peace.”

Ahhh, now the whole world knows what 'real peace" looks like. The GCC must be thoroughly fed up of his 'real peace'.

Indeed. According to AlJazeera:

Trump’s proposed 20 percent fee on ships transiting Strait of Hormuz appears to have no basis in international law and could upset US allies in the Gulf.
“President Trump likes to engage in those dramatic statements. I don’t know how much hard thinking has happened in his team around this 20 percent fee,” Vatanka told Al Jazeera.
“Some of his comments, I’m sure, will upset some of America’s friends in the region, who he said are rich, therefore can afford to pay. That’s not the deal the Gulf states signed up for when they looked at the United States as their provider of security,” he said. “So if they feel they’re being exploited in this situation, they will let that be known, and that maybe that will also have an impact on how President Trump decides to proceed with this idea.”

The GCC are fed up, yes.

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council in separate statements on Thursday condemned Iran’s attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan and warned against threats to regional security and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry said the attacks violated the sovereignty of “brotherly countries” and called for an immediate halt to all Iranian attacks on countries in the region.

In a separate statement, the GCC called for the Strait of Hormuz to remain open, rejected any unilateral arrangements and urged guarantees for freedom of navigation without tolls or passage fees.

The council said Iran bore full responsibility for the attacks and that any attack on one GCC member state was a direct attack on all.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202607091123

An update from two days ago:

Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Jassem Mohamed Albudaiwi has strongly condemned what he described as Iran’s continued actions that threaten regional security and stability. He accused Iran of repeatedly targeting Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and Jordan, and of carrying out serious attacks on commercial vessels.

In a statement issued on Sunday, Albudaiwi said such actions violate international law, the UN Charter and UN Security Council Resolution 2817. He added that they also pose a threat to maritime security and freedom of navigation.

The GCC chief said the repeated attacks undermine efforts to promote peace, security and stability across the region. He argued that the incidents reflect a persistent approach that fuels instability and runs counter to international efforts aimed at maintaining peace.

Albudaiwi also reaffirmed the GCC’s support for measures taken by Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and Jordan to protect their sovereignty, strengthen national security and ensure the safety of their citizens and residents.

https://gulfnews.com/world/gulf/saudi/gcc-denounces-iran-over-attacks-on-gulf-nations-1.500605396

From the Independent, 1 hour ago:

“The Middle East is aflame. From the Arabian Gulf to Gaza, the region is being plunged into a real world of horror ignited largely by American and Israeli leaders who live in a make-believe world where there are no lessons from history.
There are no benefits to the kind of public exchange that we have just seen between the United States and Iran that has resulted in attacks against Tehran, which in turn targeted Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.
In a brief media phone interview on Sunday, Donald Trump boasted about the weekend's strikes on Iran, claiming: "We're beating them up.”
Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, struck a similarly defiant tone, posting on X: "The era of one-sided deals is OVER. We told you: keep your word or pay the price. Reality is knocking."”

Stupidity and international arrogance led the US and Israel to attack Iran, mostly (we now are told) on the entirely false premise that Iran was on the brink of producing a nuclear weapon to obliterate the Jewish state.
“The war against Iran has failed to change the regime. It has entrenched the power of a theocracy that embraces the concept of the End Times and is delighted as its hurtles towards armageddon.
That same regime has applied the lessons of Russia’s war against Ukraine. It has used the kind of missiles it supplied Vladimir Putin – low-cost Shahed missiles and similar self-guiding bombs – to hammer US bases across the Gulf and beyond to Amman and Tel Aviv.
Tehran has proxies in Iraq. It runs Hezbollah in Lebanon. It has backed Hamas in Gaza. Along with its enemy, Israel, it already set the Levant on fire after Israel lashed out at Gaza’s population following the massacres of 7 October 2023.
The US backed Israel’s Gaza operations that killed around 47,000 women and children – supplying some of the weapons to do the killing.”
“The Iranian regime cares nothing for the mass annihilation of Palestinians. It is unmoved by the rampages of Jewish militia on the West Bank, backed by the Israel Defence Forces in a massive act of land theft.
Except that American connivance in the recent atrocities prosecuted by Israel have led to Arab nations, like the Emirates and Bahrain, to question why they would, or should, continue having diplomatic relations with a country run by a man, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity.
The lesson of 2003 for the West, and especially the US and UK, was “do not lie your way to a war in a region you do not understand”.”
“The American-led invasion of Iraq (on the false prospectus that Saddam Hussein had developed a nuclear weapon and that he backed al-Qaeda) led to mass death, sectarian horrors, the defeat of the West at war, and the rise of Isis.
Only Iran’s strategic interests were served by this gigantic waste of human lives and wanton destruction.
People who understood the region warned that this would be the outcome. They were brushed aside by ignorant ideologues who ignored expertise in favour of a rosier imaginary version of what would happen if an American-led posse rode through Mesopotamia.
That same level of ignorance led the Trump administration to defy advice and believe that it could achieve “victory” over Iran without any clear idea what winning would look like.
Regime change? No – the regime is still there. An end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions? No – it seems that much of the enriched uranium that could be processed to make a nuclear weapon has survived Trump’s “decimation” or “obliteration”. ”
Ending Iran’s missile threats to the region? Nope – the last 48 hours have shown how Iran’s weapons inventory has miraculously survived and spread like a contagion of fire. A popular uprising against a murderous theocratic regime? No – uprisings are not delivered via aerial bombardment by a foreign power.
“Iran, as was predicted, has closed the Strait of Hormuz to a fifth of the world’s oil traffic. On Monday, Trump announced the US would be the “guardian angel” of the strait and announced it would guarantee the safe passage of non-Iranian vessels – at a toll cost of 20 per cent.
Unsurprisingly, oil prices have surged and plunged as negotiations to reopen the choke point have ebbed and surged with no sign of renewed flows.
The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain. Oman has US bases that were targeted by Iran – so has Kuwait. It is telling that Qatar, which has the massive US Al Udeid airbase, was spared the latest round of Iranian attacks – as was the UAE, which has close financial and trade ties to Tehran.”
“Iran showed with its response to the latest US attacks over Hormuz that it can be discerning in its spread of violence and chaos.
There is no affection for the Iranian regime anywhere in the Arab world’s corridors of power. It is seen for what it is: a dangerous and fanatical source of misery, violence and instability.
America’s allies in the Middle East will have learnt a lesson, even if Washington has been unteachable.
It is that America is now a most dangerous ally and one that they will be wise to soon ditch.
INDEPENDENT PODCASTS

Excerpt From
“Trump is a toxic ally. His war with Iran is once again spreading across the Gulf”
Sam Kiley
The Independent
https://apple.news/AlVKSDOhkT_Ob5kU8hGI9Gw
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'Exploited' is the perfect word to describe Trump's extortion fee.

It's probably just rhetoric from Trump though it is amusing to see people who were fine with Iran's idea of charging a toll now outraged that the US are proposing the same.

Yes some of the SoH comes under Iran's territorial waters. But some belongs to Oman. Maybe we can all agree now that no country should be charging tolls to pass through the SoH.

"America’s allies in the Middle East will have learnt a lesson, even if Washington has been unteachable.
It is that America is now a most dangerous ally and one that they will be wise to soon ditch"

A poster on another thread did an AI query regarding GCC and the US. The pragmatic answer was that it is in the GCC's best interest to ditch the US relationship and work amongst themselves to restore peace.

It makes sense in terms of foreign policy and the status quo, before Trump's 'help' caused the chaos and destruction we see today.

🤐

Yes, just more rhetoric I’m sure. The man is an idiot.

I don’t remember anyone saying it was OK for Iran to pose tolls. I do remember lots of people pointing out that the SoH were open and toll free before this stupid pointless war started by the USA and Israel, which has achieved fuck all. And now the whole world is going to suffer. Well done Donald and Bibi.

Are GCC following the advice of AI now?

Someone should tell their Secretary-General Jassem Mohamed Albudaiwi who has strongly condemned what he described as Iran’s continued actions that threaten regional security and stability.

He also argued that the incidents reflect a persistent approach that fuels instability and runs counter to international efforts aimed at maintaining peace.

Doesn't sound like they about to ditch the US in favour of stronger links with the IRGC.