US - Iran Peace agreement Part 3

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https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/conflict-in-the-middle-east/5535141-us-iran-peace-agreement-part-2https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/conflict-in-the-middle-east/5535141-us-iran-peace-agreement-part-2

😂

The US are escorting ships through the SoH. That seems to be new news.

I thought that had fell through. Together with Trumps insurance plan that never happened.

Anyway, can Iran manage the SoH ? I think they can. I have never heard of any pre-war shortages of anything because of hopeless management of traffic in the SoH. I can't recall reports of ship collisions because of bad management. Bit odd to now be saying they are not capable.

The only thing I have found on it today is that the Omani queue side is empty. Looks like the big boats don’t want to risk it.

I meant facilitated not escorted, sorry.

That stopped as it shouldn't be necessary anymore. Though apparently it is so I expect it will be reintroduced.

The US military said Thursday that its forces have helped ensure the safe passage of more than 800 commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz since early May.

"Since early May, U.S. forces have helped facilitate the successful transit of more than 800 commercial vessels and 380 million barrels of crude oil through the vital international trade corridor," the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a post on the US social media platform X.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-forces-helped-over-800-vessels-transit-strait-of-hormuz-since-may-centcom/3993771

" helped facilitate".

That is rather different to being escorted by the US. That idea was abandoned remember. just after Trump promised it. He demanded other nations do that.

And " helped facilitate" is a bit broad. For instance, who were they helping with their facilitation? And what is the thing they are claiming was the actual facilitation ? Did they supply marine radios ? Maybe they cleared that suspected mine that was never shown to be a mine.

Yes I used the wrong word for what the US did and apologised for doing so.

I doubt any on here know the exact details of how they helped to facilitate.

But it enabled the successful transit of more than 800 commercial vessels and 380 million barrels of crude oil since May.

Bit odd to now be saying they are not capable.

Assuming this is aimed at me, where did I say that Iran are not capable of managing the SoH?

I expect they will return to managing it smoothly after a permanent ceasefire. They were managing it fine as far as I know before the war, when they started using it as a bargaining chip.

The US military said Thursday that its forces have helped ensure the safe passage of more than 800 commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz since early May.
"Since early May, U.S. forces have helped facilitate the successful transit of more than 800 commercial vessels and 380 million barrels of crude oil through the vital international trade corridor," the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a post on the US social media platform X.

Here's a lesson in real time as to why intellectual curiosity is essential if someone wants to engage in a ME debate, especially with the unreliable info being put out by both parties in the Iran War. Simply quoting stuff without analysing it, isn't enough imho.

A quick search online revealed:
May 2026 277.3 avg transits (E&W bound) of the Strait were made.
June 2026 634.9
(imo.org)

This only tallies with Centcom's post of >800 if it considers US Forces facilitated Iran's reopening of the Strait on 6 May as well as after the signing of the MOU. A stretch, even if claiming arms length 'facilitation' of vessels transiting the Strait.

I had a look for total transits online, but my web is very restricted on that stuff. Because of where I live. It was the first thing I looked up on seeing that CENTCOM claim. Alas, I can't get that info.

CENTROM doesn't exclude the period after the MoU was signed, they only refer to the period "since early May".

Since the signing of the MoU, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) has reported an increase in open transits through the Strait of Hormuz. On June 24, JMIC recorded 54 transits, the highest daily total since the outbreak of the conflict. As of July 6, JMIC has reported a total of 541 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz since the date of the signing of the MoU.

In the days following the MoU, transits were dominated by Chinese- and Iran-linked traffic using the northern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz. However, there has since been an increase in transits, including Western-linked vessels, through the southern corridor, likely reflecting its gradual widening due to demining operations, as well as a broader increase in commercial willingness to transit the Strait. Open transits of commercial vessels through the southern corridor declined following the maritime strikes on June 25 and 27, as well as July 6 and 7, but have not ceased entirely.

Seeing as you are familiar with the International Maritime Organization @trumpredcard you will know that this UN specialized agency with responsibility for the safety and security of shipping has condemned Iran's recent attacks.

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez issued the following statement:

"I regret that once again I am compelled to speak out following attacks on commercial ships and innocent seafarers, due to geopolitical circumstances beyond their control.

I condemn the attacks over the past two days against several ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

These reckless attacks have again placed innocent seafarers in grave danger. No seafarer should have to risk their life simply for doing their job.

As long as the safety and security of crews cannot be assured, I urge flag States, shipowners, operators and all relevant authorities to avoid exposing seafarers to unnecessary danger by transiting the Strait.

The situation in the region remains volatile. These attacks further intensify the fear, uncertainty and psychological strain already being endured by the nearly 6,000 seafarers who remain stranded on board vessels unable to depart the Persian Gulf safely.

I call on all States concerned to exercise maximum restraint, de-escalate the situation without delay, and facilitate the safe departure of the ships still trapped in the Gulf since the crisis began.

The safety of seafarers must remain our foremost priority."

https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/imo-secretary-general-condemns-new-attacks-on-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz.aspx

Al Jazeera "explainer"

Article five of the MoU states:
“Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa...

This is the one the US says Iran has violated by firing on ships not sticking to an IRGC-approved route through the strait.

Following the start of the war, in early March, the IRGC closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. In April, it said a number of ships could pass with its approval and issued a map of a safe route for these ships to use.

However, following the signing of the MoU, some ships have stuck to an older route, approved by Oman and the US, much closer to the coast of Oman and without coordinating with Iran. That goes through an area designated “restricted” by the IRGC on the map it issued.

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that this has established “parallel shipping routes and security mechanisms” in the strait for which there is no reference in the MoU.

“Iran sees that as a direct violation of the MoU, and that’s why Hormuz has become the first major test of how the agreement will be interpreted and enforced,” she told Al Jazeera.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/10/us-iran-war-will-peace-talks-ever-resume-and-when

On their side.

These ships were attacked on the Oman side on a route approved by Oman.

As Mortazavi told Al Jazeera above there are “parallel shipping routes and security mechanisms” in the strait for which there is no reference in the MoU.

The Independent just now:
“Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has more than halved following tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran this week, with only 23 cargo ships crossing on Wednesday compared to a previous daily average of 138.
The significant reduction in maritime activity follows Iran's attacks on three commercial vessels near Oman, which prompted retaliatory US strikes and subsequent Iranian attacks on US military bases in the Gulf.
This escalation has led to a standstill in shipping traffic, raising significant concerns for the global economy and the stability of oil supplies.
A memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran had previously committed Tehran to ensuring safe passage for commercial vessels for 60 days and engaging in dialogue with Oman regarding the Strait's administration.”

😂

From CNN.

"President Donald Trump said Friday that the United States has agreed to continue talks with Iran, but he also reiterated that Washington has informed Tehran that the ceasefire is no longer in effect."

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue ‘talks.’ We have agreed to do so,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

“But the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!” the president added.

He keeps doing this thing of a single sentence contradicting it 'self. Or adjacent sentences do. And while this appears to maybe not fit that, thinking about it, it does. I think ?

Because talk about what ? Does he want a new MOU that does not give IRAN so much? If so, why did he sign the last one to such fanfare ? Would it not be better to say talks are ongoing to get the MOU back on track ?

This on CNN. The Trump top down system on display here, with senior US officials calling enriched uranium "nuclear dust".

"Any final deal with Iran must include the US obtaining Iran’s enriched uranium, a senior US official insisted Friday, telling reporters: “If we don’t get the dust, we do not have a deal with Iran.”"

"President Donald Trump had been dismissive about obtaining the nuclear material earlier this week, saying during the NATO summit in Turkey that “We’ve already got the nuclear material, because it’s so far underground.”
“Nobody’s going to be able to get it except us,” he added."

just above that in the feed is this :

"The United States expects Iran to issue a public statement in the coming days that the Strait of Hormuz is open and that commercial vessels attempting to transit the waterway won’t be attacked, according to senior US officials."

"The officials described this week’s attacks on vessels in the strait as conducted by an “errant part” of Iran’s system that was working to undermine the memorandum of understanding signed between the US and Iran last month.
The White House sees a power struggle underway in Tehran between moderates who support diplomacy with the US and hardliners who are opposed to the agreement signed at Versailles in June.
Another official said Iran admitted in communications with the United States the strikes on merchant ships had been a mistake.
“They came back to the table and said we screwed up,” the official said.""

Seems to be a bit of a US walk back at the end of that. Rogue factions and all that. Could be true, no idea, But somehow when the MOU says Iran will run the SoH , with Oman to be involved later, I doubt the Iranians said " we messed up".

And here we are again. Trump want's the Uranium ( that he says the US already has because...), but Trump seems to not want to deal anything in return. When he gets the Uranium he will walk away, and it will be sanctions as usual for Iran.

I can't see logically why Iran will settle for that. To give up their bargaining chip and get nothing at all in return. And that likely explains why CNN are reporting that satellite images suggest Iran is rebuilding their nuke facility.

The MoU doesn’t actually say that Iran will “run the Strait of Hormuz” during the 60 day period, the wording is a lot more wooly than that. The text is open to interpretation and that has created problems.

The words “safe passage” do give the impression that ships would not be attacked. The route closer to Oman, who had earlier approved the route, is not specifically prohibited. Nevertheless ships were nervous even before this incident and will be even more so now. A statement from Iran guaranteeing the safety of ships in this period would be welcome, whether that’s a realistic hope I don’t know.

It seems very obvious that Iranian negotiators are struggling with a power struggle within Iran, as the CNN article suggests. The negotiators may be negotiating in good faith with the US because they can see the benefits in sanctions relief (for example). However, their efforts are being undermined by the hardliners who don’t want diplomacy with “Great Satan” at any price.

I’ve read the same comments from US officials (to a small group of reporters) that @RedTagAlan refers to above, but in the Times of Israel.

The fundamental demand from the US side is that Iran turns over its nuclear materials.

“I just want to be clear here that if we don’t get the dust, we do not have a deal with Iran”, one official said.

The official says, “we have a lot of options” if Iran refuses, including military and economic options.

I have never read the book "the art of the deal. I wonder if it has a chapter about contracts? Along the lines of :

Does the contract say what you think it does ? Can the contract be interpreted in different ways? Do both parties agree on what the contract says ? Does the contract need changed to reflect what was verbally agreed ?

Than again, Trump likely says on contracts " It says what I want it to say". Or " Who needs contracts, just tear them up"

Art of the deal indeed. Is it too much to ask what one of these super smart people can negotiate and sign an MOU without it being "wooly" ?

Another TRUTH from the master artist of the deal. I wonder if he is using "decimate" in it's original form. to destroy one tenth off, or does he mean destroy most of it, as per the words modern more colloquial meaning?

As we know, Trump is running the US as a top down system. So I think we can take it as a given that his DOJ will be uncovering loads of plots and making loads of arrests.

"Saturday, July 11, 2026 3:18 AM Truth Social

1000 Missiles are Locked and Loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran, with thousands of more to immediately follow, should the Iranian Government act on its threat, pronounced in many corners of the Globe, to assassinate, or attempt to assassinate, the sitting President of the United States of America, in this case, ME! Orders have already been given, and the U.S. Military is ready, willing, and able, for a one year period of time, subject to extension, to completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran - PRAISE BE TO ALLAH! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

Oh dear, he is having another manic episode.

I actually don’t believe this, the UAE was the only gulf country that launched counter attacks against Iran. Kuwait and Bahrain haven’t responded before to attacks but then they did and they haven’t been attacked since. I think the Iranians were basically bombing the shit out of Kuwait and Bahrain to make it look like they were responding. There were limited attacks on Israel at the begging of the year but theres a reason the Iranians haven’t attacked them for a while and I expect it’s because they know that if they launch attacks in Israel the response will be brutal towards them and hezbollah.

From the Independent:

“Officials have blamed the latest strikes against vessels, which sparked renewed hostilities this week, on a power struggle in Tehran with rogue hardliners seeking to derail the fragile truce.
Mr Trump previously said the US has agreed to continue talks with Iran following recent clashes but stressed in “no uncertain terms” that the ceasefire was over.
But just as Washington was seeking public guarantees over the strait, Tehran’s top diplomat at the United Nations insisted any activity in the Gulf channel “rests exclusively with Iran”.
Ending Tehran’s stranglehold on the sea route, which disrupted global oil and gas supplies and drove up fuel and food prices, had been a key demand in previous negotiations.”

“However, the initial deal reached between the US and Iran only provides for safe, toll-free passage of the waterway for 60 days, pending the outcome of a final agreement on Tehran’s disputed nuclear plans.
The pact also leaves it to Iran and Oman, in conjunction with other Gulf states, to “define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz”.”

“In the meantime, Iran has continued to try to exert leverage over the channel, including demanding ships seek permission to transit and raising the spectre of future charges.
Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani said on Friday: “Any attempt, by external actors, to interfere with or establish a power arrangement would violate the (interim deal), and undermine its implementation, delay the restoration of normal commercial navigation, jeopardise maritime safety, and increase regional tensions.”
Meanwhile, the US military has been working to counter claims by Iran that it controls the sea route and that transit is only permitted through its approved designated routes.
Nevertheless, shipping using the channel has plummeted following the recent fighting, with traffic already well down compared to before the war.
Earlier in the week, the US president branded the Tehran leadership “scum” and said it was “a waste of time” dealing with the regime, amid exchanges of fire after Iran targeted three tankers in the strait, which has remained a flashpoint.”

“In a post on his Truth Social platform on Friday, Mr Trump said: “The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue ‘talks’.
“We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!”
The trading of strikes has again caused severe disruption to maritime traffic in the critical sea route, casting doubt on securing a permanent end to the conflict, launched by the US and Israel on February 28.
Mr Trump has also suggested the US could reimpose its blockade of Iranian ports, having already pulled Tehran’s licence to sell oil.
In a further retaliatory move, the US Treasury acted to crack down on a key financier to the Tehran regime, Dubai-based banker and businessman Ali Ansari, previously sanctioned by Britain for his role in financially supporting the activities of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).”

“Before the latest flare-up, negotiations between the two sides had been due to restart following the burial of Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the conflict.
Mediators are engaged in frantic diplomatic efforts to try and salvage the tattered peace process.
At the same time, Israel has said it stands ready to confront Iran again if needed.
The country’s defence minister Israel Katz said: “If we will have to return, we will return with even greater force.””

Excerpt From
“Donald Trump warns Iran against pursuing any assassination attempt”
John Besley
The Independent
https://apple.news/AC5DAivyiTHObXNk5uBy8Kg
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