US, Iran and mediators discuss terms for a 45-day ceasefire

[Twiglets1]

As reported by Axios, the U.S., Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, according to four U.S., Israeli and regional sources with knowledge of the talks.

Four sources with knowledge of the diplomatic efforts said the negotiations are taking place through Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators and also through text messages sent between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

• A U.S. official said the Trump administration gave Iran several proposals in recent days, but so far Iranian officials hadn't accepted them.
• The sources said the mediators are discussing with the parties the terms for two-phased deal; the first phase would a potential 45-day ceasefire during which a permanent end to the war would be negotiated.
• The ceasefire could be extended if more time were needed for talks, one of the sources said.
• The second phase would be an agreement on ending the war.
• The sources said mediators think that fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a solution for Iran's highly enriched Uranium — either through its removal from the country or dilution — could only be a result of a final deal.
• These two issues are Iran's main bargaining chips in the negotiations and the Iranians will not agree to fully give up on them for only 45 days of ceasefire, two of the sources said.
• The mediators want to see whether Iran could take partial step on both issues in the first phase of the deal. They are also working on steps the Trump administration could take to give Iran guarantees that the ceasefire will not be temporary and that the war will not resume.

www.axios.com/2026/04/06/iran-war-us-tehran-ceasefire-talks

So - now we have an environmental catastrophe added to everything else going on in the area of the SoH. The oil spillage (some of which is on purpose of course, from the IRGC) has reached Kuwait.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/21/climate/iran-war-oil-spills-persian-gulf-satellite-images

@GentleSheepThe wars in the region have been an entire environmental disaster. This definitely adds to it.

This war has been an environmental disaster from the beginning. Wars in regions rich in oil, with oil refineries and pipes are always environmental disasters.😢

I suggested a while back that this is what they would do. It's a UNCLOS thing. Article 26 :

"Charges which may be levied upon foreign ships
1.
No charge may be levied upon foreign ships by reason only of their passage through the territorial sea.
2.
Charges may be levied upon a foreign ship passing through the territorial sea as payment only for specific services rendered to the ship. These charges shall be levied without discrimination."

(Italics from UNCLOS website)

Para 2. I think this is for likes of pilotage etc, but it can apply to insurance too. Oil spill insurance perhaps ?They could not do this for the whole of the SOH of course, just their half.

Hormuz Safe Insurance Platform

😅

"You go first!"
"Uhh no, after you!"

CNN say they want to charge for cables too:

Iran eyes a new source of power deep beneath the Strait of Hormuz | CNN

https://news.sky.com/video/iran-school-bombing-months-on-still-no-answers-from-the-trump-administration-13545753

The US answers on Iran school strike are always the same

In Minab, Iran, more than a hundred women and children were killed after an airstrike hit a school at the beginning of US military action in the country.

And a further analysis by Dominic Waghorn

Utter horror and carnage - how Trump's war with Iran went very, very wrong

By Dominic Waghorn, international affairs editor in Minab

Right at the start of America's war with Iran, something went very, very wrong.
We can say that with even more clarity as the first news team from outside Iran to reach where it happened.
You need to walk through the rubble in the wrecked classrooms of the primary school in Minab for the full enormity of the atrocity here to hit home.
You have to talk to the people who raced to the scene that morning after the missiles came in to have a sense of the utter horror and carnage that followed.
They could not tell if they were alive or in a nightmare as they picked up the body parts of children scattered across the car park and playground.
You have to listen to a mother who could only bury part of the torso of her dead nine-year-old wrapped in a shroud because that was all that was left of him, to understand the depth of their grief.

https://news.sky.com/video/sky-news-is-the-first-international-news-team-at-school-hit-by-alleged-us-strike-13545637

Meanwhile, Trump has called off strikes on Iran at the request of the Gulf states and Iran has sent a new proposal for ending the war to the US.

Meanwhile, after the Trump and Xi meet never produced anything worth yelling about. this weeks Putin and Xi meet appears to have big success scripted in already.

Putin kicks off 25th China visit, hails ties as reaching ‘truly unprecedented level’; non-alliance partnership advances multipolarity, global stability: experts - Global Times

"In a video address delivered before his state visit to China, Putin said Russia-China relations have reached "a truly unprecedented level," Xinhua News Agency reported"

"The special nature of Russia-China relations is reflected in the atmosphere of mutual understanding and trust, a commitment to pursuing win-win and equitable cooperation, conducting respectful dialogue, and supporting each other on matters affecting the core interests of both countries, including protection of sovereignty and state unity, he said."

Reminder that both the PRC and Russia are on Irans side. And looking at todays edition of PRC state media. The Global Times (screen shot att), Trump has been pushed down onto what is effectively page 2. Smaller than a cyberattack warning, and smaller than a vid of Putin taking his jacket off.

This is what I said upthread about taking PRC state media as a whole. Trump has been pushed well down.

Trump says he is in no hurry with Iran

(Reuters) - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the beginning of a "systemic agrifood shock" that could trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said on Wednesday

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-closure-could-trigger-agrifood-shock-price-crisis-within-year-fao-warns-2026-05-20/

He clearly said he wasn’t considering the needs of US citizens in his negotiations with Iran- so he’s clearly not going to care on impact on others from other countries.

Iran has reached a draft agreement with Pakistani mediators and is awaiting a US response, Al Jazeera reports.

The proposal includes ending the war, lifting the blockade, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and withdrawing US forces from the conflict zone. No nuclear discussions for now.

Iran says it cannot offer any further concessions.

Will Trump even look at it?

I am beginning to think he has lost interest.

It's 89 days now? Cuba and Greenland are his latest interests,

I still think Helium is the key in the Gulf.

As soon as chip making is impacted and their share value is hit, he will act.

And yes, I reckon he will abandon his Gulf war and make out Cuba is more important.

He has posted an image of Iran as a US state

Just shocking.
We saw the same from Netanyahu on Gaza in sept 2023
They are using the same playbook

Yeah well those two could have been twins separated at birth, both as vile as each other.

Or maybe a reality based viewpoint?

Trump is an elderly, malignant, senile narcissist, easily bought and manipulated. He claimed to have won the war months ago. That was a lie.

China and Russia are strengthened. Iran is loving flexing its its power. Meanwhile the USA is increasingly weakened, impoverished and isolated.

And 1000s of people.are dying.😢

Do you have insider information about which leader gave away more concessions? If not, then it is not a reality based viewpoint but an opinion.

Are you a doctor to know that he is senile? If not then it is another opinion dressed up as fact.

Iran is loving flexing its power? You mean the IRGC are, but at what cost?

Iran’s economy is heading into a period of sharp deterioration following the March war, with mounting pressure from inflation, currency depreciation and damage to key industries raising the risk of a broader crisis.

Over the next two to four months, Iran’s economic conditions are expected to continue deteriorating sharply, with high inflation, rising unemployment, falling real incomes, and significant stress across key industries, the external sector, and the financial system, amounting to severe stagflation.

The economy entered the recent war from a weak starting point, and the combined effects of war-related damage, financial strain, and policy responses are likely to intensify these pressures.

Under a continued ceasefire, the deterioration is expected to be gradual but persistent; under a strictly enforced naval blockade, the adjustment is likely to be faster and more severe, with risks of very high inflation and broader economic disruption.

However, hyperinflation and full economic collapse are less likely in the next two to four months. An effectively enforced blockade, combined with military operations focused on reopening and securing the Strait of Hormuz, will push Tehran to the edge of economic collapse.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604249669

As the article explains, Iran entered the war from an already fragile economic position, with inflation above 50% by the end of 2025.

The war has directly affected Iran’s main sources of export revenue. Damage to industrial infrastructure—especially in petrochemicals and metals—has disrupted sectors that generated roughly $25–30 billion in exports in 2024 (petrochemicals: $13–17 billion; metals: $12–13 billion).

The widespread internet blackout has severely disrupted economic activity, especially small and medium-sized businesses reliant on digital platforms.

According to NetBlocks, the economic cost of internet shutdowns in Iran has been estimated to be at least $37 million per day during recent outages.

Households are expected to reduce spending significantly. Private consumption accounts for roughly 50 percent of the economy, so this contraction will have broad effects. These factors point to rising unemployment, a notable decline in private consumption, and a broad and significant decline in living standards.

But I guess that's all fine as long as the IRGC can enjoy their war games and Lego propaganda and "flexing its power."

Five key points from the potential US-Iran deal

A deal to end the war appears to be in the final stages.

Over the past hour, new details have emerged from US outlet Axios, which reports the framework includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

That would be in exchange for the lifting of the blockade on Iranian ports.

Donald Trump last night said a deal only needs to be finalised.

But here's the potential catch: a spokesperson for the Iranian foreign ministry said there are still issues that need to be discussed through mediators.

So let's take a look at that report in more detail, as outlined by Axios...
60-day ceasefire extension
Strait of Hormuz reopened with no tolls
Iran agrees to clear the mines it deployed in the strait
US lifts blockade on Iran's ports
Commitments from Iran to never pursue nuclear weapons

https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-latest-us-and-iran-getting-a-lot-closer-to-finalising-agreement-to-end-war-says-donald-trump-13509565

I tend to check the "about" page before I post any links. And If I post state media or whatever, I state it is.

This "Iran insights" posted above does not have any "about " page that I can see. Nor can I find any info on my limited web. It appears to be London based.

However, click on the bio of the author who wrote the article posted, and we get this:

"Saeed Ghasseminejad
Senior Fellow, National Union for Democracy in Iran
Saeed Ghasseminejad is a Senior Fellow at the National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI), the director of the Iran Prosperity Project, and an economic advisor to exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi."

An economic advisor to exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.

Now I do not really agree with nit picking sources too much. But I think in this case a bit of due diligence is in order.

Quoting that article is like quoting the Epoch Times for news on Communist China. Or a GB News article about the current UK government.

That's not to say it is not true. Not at all.

Just that as an unbiased news or opinion piece, it does fail on quite a few points.

Economic advisor to exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi does have more red flags than a National day celebration in communist China.

Are you attempting to deny that Iran had a fragile economy before the war which has worsened since? Most of it is factual not opinion so I can find another source if you prefer but the gist will be the same.

I understand you have access to limited sources and so only quote from a couple but surely even they acknowledge that the Iran economy has been adversely affected by the war to a large degree?