US, Iran and mediators discuss terms for a 45-day ceasefire

[Twiglets1]

As reported by Axios, the U.S., Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, according to four U.S., Israeli and regional sources with knowledge of the talks.

Four sources with knowledge of the diplomatic efforts said the negotiations are taking place through Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators and also through text messages sent between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

• A U.S. official said the Trump administration gave Iran several proposals in recent days, but so far Iranian officials hadn't accepted them.
• The sources said the mediators are discussing with the parties the terms for two-phased deal; the first phase would a potential 45-day ceasefire during which a permanent end to the war would be negotiated.
• The ceasefire could be extended if more time were needed for talks, one of the sources said.
• The second phase would be an agreement on ending the war.
• The sources said mediators think that fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a solution for Iran's highly enriched Uranium — either through its removal from the country or dilution — could only be a result of a final deal.
• These two issues are Iran's main bargaining chips in the negotiations and the Iranians will not agree to fully give up on them for only 45 days of ceasefire, two of the sources said.
• The mediators want to see whether Iran could take partial step on both issues in the first phase of the deal. They are also working on steps the Trump administration could take to give Iran guarantees that the ceasefire will not be temporary and that the war will not resume.

www.axios.com/2026/04/06/iran-war-us-tehran-ceasefire-talks

I think because this is 'old news' - we have known about Iran's oppressive regime for decades, their nuclear ambitions and hatred for the US and Israel. The only thing that really surprised me was them firing missiles into other surrounding countries.

Meanwhile, the US have gone completely off script! Plus we have Trump's ever more unhinged tweets to analyse every day - including 'ending a civilisation' which has to be a first.

Also the IRGC are behaving much as Hamas have done, saying one thing then doing another. As a PP said, they're predictable. Plus we have less news coming out of Iran, we may get propaganda videos but it's hard to know what's actually going on. Think of Ukraine, we have embedded reporters there. Not so with Iran.

We see a lot of what the US is doing and we have press conferences. Not so with Iran, it's largely blacked out.

If you listen to Tousi TV (Tousi is Iranian by birth and his father's still in Tehran) he's a massive Trump supporter and gets hold of a lot of short videos that come out of Iran. He is still surprisingly positive about the IRGC being kicked out and insists the regime is crumbling. He believes Reza Pahlavi will be installed once that happens and that the people are fully behind that. I hope he's right, but I can't see it happening in the near future as that type of regime doesn't just pack their bags and leave (like Assad did) - it's a 'distributed system' of mullahs and so will take a lot to destroy it (which Trump originally said the Iranian people would do after he'd destroyed the leaders of the IRGC, the navy and airforce - how's that working out for you, sir??) - it likely cannot be destroyed, only reduced.

Then if that's not enough, you've got Trump sprinkling insults to various western countries, to make matters worse. There's just so much to talk about!

What is your opinion - if you have one, in the impact of the Iran war on China’s standing in the world versus that of the U.S.

The U.S. and Israel in starting this war that no-one else wanted has put other people’s economies at risk and there is real concern about hunger/ potentially famine.

The world is standing aghast at what is happening. We’re essentially watching a game of chicken. Not very sophisticated when you consider that what’s at risk.

I don’t think I know enough about China to try to calculate the impact of the Iran war on their standing in the world versus the US.

I found both articles you linked to genuinely informative and interesting. Both the Economist one and the BRICS in turmoil one.

Thank you for trying to explain.

However, I disagree that it is "old news" - firstly that Iran would kill thousands of their own civilian for the "crime" of protesting against their regime, secondly that they would fire missiles and destroy infrastructure of their neighbouring countries (including water desalination plants) or thirdly that they would impose an internet blackout - now entering it's 58th day according to NetBlocks.

To me those actions were not "predictable" even though I was aware that Iranians were living under an authoritarian regime.

Agree that the US has gone off script too and that Trump's words are often inflammatory and ridiculous. I totally understand people criticising Trump and his team and mocking them. This is what we do in democratic countries - freely exercise our right to criticise anyone we want to criticise.

What is harder to understand is why the IRGC doesn't attract a similar level of condemnation or dare I say it - more. I think there's a danger that the West is appearing to condemn the US more than Iran which is a paradox when it is the IRGC that most of the West has labelled a terrorist organisation.

Regime change in Iran doesn't look like it's happening any time soon, I agree with your opinion on that. Despite Trump's hubris, he can't make the Iranian people do anything. This includes bringing about regime change from within, which is what the US & Israel hoped would happen. Still ... the war has damaged Iran economically and the economic pain will continue until a peace deal is reached. Maybe they will be brought down in the end by that, who knows? It's impossible to know the long term effects of the war at this stage.

A bit odd to rubbish what people post about a new world order then say you don't know enough about China to calculate the impact of the Iran war.

Imagine believing that global diplomacy is about making friends, how sweet.

The brotherly GCC states allowed their countries to be used to murder Iranian children, such great friends.

Kissinger said it best "America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests." Refreshing honesty.

On Nukes it was rumoured that Trump had to be kicked out of the situation room on 18th April after asking for the Nuclear codes. That's why that reporter asked Trump that specific question about the nukes. Imagine the seriousness of the situation that someone in the Whitehouse leaked this information.

Initially it was only reported by ex CIA analyst Larry Johnson, however Republican lawyer Robert Barnes corroborated Larry's reporting as he has heard the same from his sources in Washington. Barnes also details Trump’s cognitive decline and Trump being surrounded by "wormtongues" who are encouraging his delusion.

Initial Report on Trump Nuke Codes

LARRY JOHNSON: "They had an emergency meeting Saturday night. And apparently, well, one report coming out of that meeting at the White House is that Trump wanted to use the nuclear so-called use the nuclear codes and General Dan Cain stood up and said, "No." Uh he invoked uh uh his his privilege as as the the head of the military, so to speak. Uh it was apparently quite a blow-up. There are pictures of Cain coming out of that meeting with his head down to the ground."

Robert Barnes on the Duran (First 30 minutes most important)

ROBERT BARNES: Vance will get a deal done and Trump will rug pull it within the
same day. That's what happened a weekend ago. He had to be kicked out of the situation room two weekends ago. But
when whether it was a special op gone
bad or a pilot gone down, whatever the
situation may be, Kaine had to remove
him uh from the situation room because
of how crazy he was, yelling and
screaming at people, proposing things
that made no sense uh for them to do the
rescue operation.

Last week, he had to be told no, he wanted to prep nuclear attack. He was like, "Hey, show me the nuclear uh the codes. I want to take a look at those. Let's show me the sites where we would hit for the new let's go through that simulation." Kane was like,
"No, no, no. We're not doing that. We're
not doing that." You saw Kane with his
head down when he left the White House.

Of course the new passenger's on the MAGA train (who only jumped on for Israel) wouldn't know this, but as Barnes says the crazy one is in the Whitehouse.

Well I find a lot of the things you say a bit odd but let's keep things nice.

@BelleHathor I wasn't the one who first mentioned Iran having "friends" I don't think they have any really, only allies. It was another poster who introduced the implausible concept of Iran making new friends.

Keep things nice, then don't dismiss things you don't understand as 'watching too many Bond films'

I was talking specifically to Red who said she wasn't going to post on another thread of mine over a previous spat but now seems to want another argument.

It is better to keep things nice - or preferably avoid - people you have a problem with.

There's nothing "new world order" about Iran only having 2 allies. They had some other quasi allies in the ME but bullied them too much so now they have fewer countries that want to engage with them diplomatically, not more.

It's a discussion, you can not dictate what or where posters post.

BRICS in turmoil: India's challenge to restore unity

Both the Saudi Arabian and UAE governments stated unequivocally that Iran's attacks went far beyond hitting military or American assets. Their official positions, as reported during the March 2026 escalation, included:

Saudi Arabia
Confirmed strikes on civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities and desalination plants in the Eastern Province.
Reported civilian casualties.
Described the attacks as a "direct act of aggression" against the Kingdom's sovereignty, not an incidental strike on US bases.

United Arab Emirates
Confirmed that Iranian missiles and drones struck civilian areas, not just military zones.
Reported damage to infrastructure and civilian deaths.
Recalled its ambassador from Tehran and formally protested at the UN.

Both countries explicitly rejected any narrative that framed the strikes as limited to “American targets on their soil”. They characterised them as unprovoked attacks on their civilian populations.

This came as Iran launched a massive campaign of ballistic missiles and drones against the UAE, striking residential areas in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

Speaking to CNN, UAE Minister of State for International Cooperation Reem Al Hashimy described the Iranian strikes as “unjustifiable and very unlawful” attacks that hit “not just the UAE but also the rest of the Gulf and beyond”.

Crucially, she noted that even before the war began, the UAE had repeatedly made clear it would not let its territory be used against Iran, yet Tehran attacked anyway.

https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/brics-in-turmoil-indias-challenge-to-restore-unity/ar-AA21GuK9

So now you're spreading what you acknowledge are "rumours" that you saw on podcasts and dressing that up as something that I "wouldn't know".

No I don't know - because it's rumours and allegations made on a podcast not facts.

Still I liked the so ridiculous it's funny quote of Trump saying "Hey, show me the nuclear uh the codes"

the little "uh" is a particularly nice touch.

TBF, there is plenty to not understand. The world being a bit specialised and all that. Plenty I don't know, even though I try to see the bigger picture.

Green tech for example. A Trump fan might agree with Trump that climate change is a hoax, and will likely miss the massive over capacity China has in that market. Sorry, I mean the massive over capacity they did have pre war. Now demand for things like EVs has gone though the roof, especially in Asia. Countries such as Vietnam. They settled their tariff battle with Trump by dropping their import duty on US gas guzzling SUVs... that they don't buy anyway. Trump sold that as a win. Meanwhile China is churning out cheap small EV's by the shipload.

Trump fan's won't know stuff like that.

There is an awful lot I don't understand but I try to learn and appreciate posters putting in time to explain.

There is nowt wrong with admitting you don't understand things.

I don't know why anyone would assume that China churning out cheap small EV's by the shipload is any kind of secret.

It is well reported as this Car Magazine article from July 2025 shows:

In 2025 China is an automotive powerhouse, and its products being increasingly popular in Europe and the UK. It’s a textbook tale of industrial innovation, as one nation’s car industry uses a significant shift in the automotive industry to kickstart its ambitions to become a producer of the best electric cars.

Increasing numbers of Chinese car brands are targeting Europe as a major source of growth. Already in 2025 around half of the most popular electric cars sold in the UK hail from China.

www.carmagazine.co.uk/electric/chinese-evs-you-can-buy-in-the-uk/

Iran has proposed an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war while delaying negotiations on its nuclear program to a later stage,

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/27/iran-us-hormuz-strait-nuclear-talks-proposal-pakistan

Yeah I also reported on that at 6.49 today.

That proposal won't fly.

As it says in the article, lifting the blockade and ending the war would remove President Trump's leverage in any future talks to remove Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium and convince Tehran to suspend enrichment — two primary war objectives for Trump.

I guess you forgot to add the disclaimer "former IDF Unit 8200 Soldier" to that Axios report written by Barak Ravid you posted earlier? seeing as you are all about "facts".

Anyway I didn't post it for you, it was for people who actually want more information, and both those men have more access to Washington than any of us do here. Just because it is being discussed in spaces you don't know about doesn't make it inaccurate or untrue.

The fact that Barnes is saying this is exceptional, I unfollowed him 2 years ago as he did the whole "Israel has a right to defend itself" spiel. That's he's done a 180 degree is surprising.

p.s the UH is from the subtitles on the videos.

Yup. My post was not aimed at your good self. Just general info for the forum. Specifically for posters who dismiss what others say as "James Bond".

India is a bit of an unknown one. Modi is pals with Putin, and only agreed to give up Russian oil because of Trumps Mafia like threats. And India, as the most populous nation on earth, is really suffering with the SoH being closed. No gas to cook on. But India and China do not get on, even as BRICs nations. If Modi switches back to Putin, and the SOH is opened for Indian ships by Iran, what then of Trump's blockade ?

That proposal won't fly

We will have to wait and see as nobody knows at this stage

Well I'm mildly pleased to hear that someone is still trying to break the stalemate by suggesting something 'new'

Nuclear negotiations have been notoriously glacially slow in the past - and there's not limitless time wrt re-opening the strait not just for oil but also fertiliser, helium etc

At the start of this war, Helium stocks were put as 90 days. Taiwan and South Korea need the He to make these advanced chips that go into AI. So that will become a massive pressure on the US.

Yup, their whole stock market has realigned and bet extremely big on "AI" without the chips, memory, ssds etcetera it will be the dot com bubble burst on steroids and when America catches a cold the whole world sneezes🫣🥺.