Trump throwing a lot of people under the bus because of stock markets?

[mids2019]

When you start a war you finish it in my opinion. There has been no other war that has been stopped because of a slide on the Dow Jones or an oil price spike. For Trump to now prematurely call an end to the war simply because of economics will simply mean IIrans drone terrorism has worked.

The people of Iran will be left with a job half done without the space needed for an uprising.

A new leader with good reason to ideological hate Israel and the US will realise the only method of future deterrence of Iran is through acquiring a nuclear weapon as their conventional weapons were obliterated. Iran will now do everything possible to acquire such a weapon.

This is a time for resolve Mr. President. There is still a chance to destroy this regime maybe with limited target ground troop assaults. The world actually will be safer if you continue.

Yes I'm aware of the SDSR, the criticism and what followed.

It's probably true all those commenting here will have been critical of it but do you think all of the rest of the general population, all umpteen million voters, were aware of what looked like an increasing threat..?

I’m not sure people vote for it when the threat is obvious anyway. Support for the Greens is going up and they are unlikely to spend more on defence.

Talk now is of $200 oil, the daily/hourly numbers are pretty meaningless, it is the trend that counts.

i accept that the millions of voters you refer to in the 2010s were probably more focused on the voting in X Factor and Strictly rather than the Defence review, but that's a wider problem with democracy and the criticism of the Defence Review was widely covered at the time.

When it comes to defence, Govts have access to a lot more info than you or i.

Defence is not something that should be decided on a focus group... as proved by Brexit, the population can easily be led.

By 2014, the Govt was well aware of the need to increase defence, instead they reduced the spend.

I'm not being tribal about this, i'd be just as critical if Lab had done it and i don't approve of the glacial pace Labour now are increasing it.

Perhaps a hypothecated tax for defence, maybe issue "war bonds" ?

Monies also need to be wisely spent... atm i've no confidence that would be done.

Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, the warning signs were there

Ofcourse Johnson still had to be lectured on the use of tanks in 2021.

But the public are against greater spending on defence if it requires a trade off in cuts in government spending on other areas. There simply isn't the support amongst voters regardless of what you and I think.

You've hit the nail on the head... a total lack of leadership on this issue, Osbourn and Cameron had no problem convincing the public we needed Austerity... they could have equally made the case for a 0.5% increase in defence, re instated the cuts to the T45 program... etc etc

Instead they cut defence.

I was doing quite a bit of work in Devonport in the 2010s, the reduction in Dockyard size was very sad.

The first cuts to pay for defence would come from benefits, there is support to cut this I believe, and also a lot of support to have less people in the country using resources and getting benefits.

Last time the UK experienced "austerity" was the 1930"s and WW2, when Cameron was in power there was a massive cheap debt binge ongoing with people gorging themselves on cheap mortgage debt for basic housing, very very sad to witness. The real austerity is coming now, things are going to get real for a lot of people who thought they were minor celebrities instead of just debt serfs.

Depends who you ask.

There would be some support to cut benefits but also an awful lot of opposition to it. Labour would be reluctant to upset voters by cutting benefits. They are expected to support the vulnerable in society, not cut the budget to do so.

The majority of the electorate might not support Labour’s spending on benefits but a fair amount still do and backbenchers are still wedded to spending more on them regardless.

Honestly there is no support in the electorate in cutting welfare benefits to pay for defence spending and even if the public did want it then Labour backbenchers won't.

As i ve pointed out before, people want Benefits cut that they themselves can't claim..

Imagine the outrage in the Tory press and on here if free Childcare was limited to those on standard tax rate?

No more taxis to ferry your SENDs child around in, means test triple lock... no more free prescriptions for the over 60s....

Its not just Labour MPs who would be screaming "How unfair...."

Those cuts definitely appeal to a certain demographic

Weapons over people.

Despite his announcement of waiting 10 days, there have been loses on international stock markets today. The traders are finally realising that Trump is the boy who cried wolf.

Israel (with American help) also hit a yellowcake (nuclear) factory in Iran.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-confirms-strike-on-yellowcake-plant-in-iran-only-one-of-its-kind-in-country/

and 2 Iranian steel plants.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/us-israel-target-irans-largest-steel-companies-in-new-wave-of-strikes/3881824

Iran will retaliate and has told employees of certain industrial sitea in 6 countries to evacuate.

Speculation that the Yemenis may also join.

Up the escalation ladder we climb.

And blowing up a uranium enrichment facility (yellow cake) preventing the uranium being turned into nuclear weapons is somehow a bad thing?

It put's nuclear assets on the table, including Dimona in Israel, which Iran has already demonstrated it has the capability to reach a few days ago.

But if that's a good thing, then so be it.

Do you think the 10 days is buying time for the second MEU to arrive? The Tripoli was expected to arrive today and the 82nd airborne have been deployed but I don't know where they are right now. It does feel like everything is heading towards a ground invasion.

I think Trumps moving deadlines are only in relation to energy infrastructure. Despite the 5 day postponement at the beginning of the week bombing raids have continued as before.

From listening to analysts like Larry Johnson, Colonel Wilkerson, Doug Macgregor and Daniel Davis (All CIA , Military) I think so. There is a lot more movement of troops that is not beinb reported.

Trump is sneaky, technically Israel hit those positions today, so strictly speaking he didn't break his promise.

Some of the Finance Bros were speculating that the 10 days to April 5th were a signal to give people time to get rid of any risky positions they may me exposed to on the markets.

This was streamed yesterday it's very informative. Note how sad both Daniel and Doug look, they know that it's likely that there will be a lot of casualties.

So basically the whole market then, because that is a massive bubble, just like property.

Well the markets have been disconnected from economic theory since 2007/8, that's when it should have reset but governments just printed more money, then Covid, more money printed and as you said earlier we've all become drunk on cheap money.

Larry Fink is sounding the alarm bell about it. More worryingly so is Michael Burry who predicted the sub prime bubble in 2006/7, he closed his investment fund last year warning of the AI bubble. That's precarious now as helium is needed to make chips, largest exporter Qatar through Hormuz.

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/michael-burry-says-lights-ominous-223033088.html

There’s a good recent podcast with Larry Fink, he’s not particularly worried about an AI bubble but he does talk bluntly about Iran sadly choosing to be exporters of terror 47 years ago, when it had one of the highest per capita GDP in the region.

The people denied the oil wealth by the leaders. Worth a listen.

I've been listening to the ex military and analysts too. The outlook is bleak. I have no idea what de-escalation would look like at this point but if someone doesn't work it out lots of people are going to die.

Crude futures back up to over $100 and Brent $114. About 30 minutes until markets close. Who knows what the weekend will bring.

Correction: 30 minutes since the markets closed.