Are people still rejoicing about Iran?

[binnibonnieboo]

When Israel and the US took out Khamenei there was a thread on how great it was. Some of us expressed that it may not end well, given how forced regime change went previously in many countries. We were told to stop "leftsplaining" to Iranians. How do those people think it's going so far?

Are you talking about civilians or are you talking about the IRCG?

I don’t see that supporters need to be killed. As the @Bringemout said people get paid to work for the state.

What is bewildering about it. For regime change to happen people will die. Either boots on ground or by bombing. And yes, there likely will be executions.

Germany had about 4.2 million dead to get that regime change. That's just Germany of course.

I can't think of any war where no people have died to get regime change. Iraq was somewhere between 500k to 110m.

I am just trying to figure out how many for this war.

I think it's impossible to understand who genuinely is a "supporter" in such a regime, when the consequences of not supporting them are maiming, death etc

Iran has been weeks away from developing nuclear weapons for the past 20-odd years, or so we have been told. We were also told that Iran's nuclear weapon programme was "completely and totally obliterated" last year.

The US and Israel are trying to drag us into a regional war in which we have no geopolitical or economic interest and which only serves to destabilise the region, while drawing attention away from the much more serious threat of Russian incursions into Europe.

We were clearly told by the US in 1956 that nothing west of Suez was our concern. Not our circus, not our monkeys.

Of course I meant EAST of Suez!!

Yes. The numbers are not known.

But remember this is a theocracy. It is ruled by religion. So I would reckon that would put the numbers of supporters pretty high.

That's why I compared Iran to the Vatican in a post above. Because it is not about a system on government. It is a religion. It's not really a case of regime change and keep your religion such as in Iraq. This is regime change = religion change. The religion is possibly more ingrained than it was in Afghanistan, and that is now a full theocracy now.

There’ll be many who don’t want the theocracy. You can see the suppression of protestors and the Iranian footballers. They might want the theocracy gone.

No it doesn’t, that survey I posted was flawed because it was primarily young people and in a country where apostasy laws are in effect. The numbers who would have said they weren’t muslim would have likely been even higher if people weren’t scared I think.

You didn’t comment on mosques shutting down because of non attendance. Quite a lot of mosques were also set on fire during protests because they are basiji centres. Everyone in the vatican is there voluntarily and won’t be executed or imprisoned for disavowing catholicism. I can’t remember the last time the pope had people gunned down for saying he shouldn’t be in charge. It is nothing like the vatican, it’s an extremely poor comparison.

The reason they have to enforce laws on hijabs etc so brutally is precisely because they are not wanted. There is no law mandating the hijab in any gulf country yet women often do wear the hijab (obviously theres an argument about societal pressure).

There is no choice, if people were freely choosing the regime they wouldnyneed to use suppression on their people.

Acknowledging the fact that people will sadly die is not the same as claiming that for a regime to fall a certain percentage of its civilian supporters would have to be killed.
People have also been dying under the regime, and not in exactly small numbers.

How do you know how many people in Iran actually follow the religion? How many would choose to do so if they had free choice?

That is pretty much my point. I have no idea on numbers.

I do it would be a good idea for people wanting regime change to have some numbers before bombing a nation of 90 million people.

How would you get the numbers? A free vote?

What would need to happen to get that

No, the number the regime has killed is not small. And would it not be a good idea to know how many were doing the shooting before even abandoning any attempt at regime moderation ?

After all, if western governments are ok with the Saudi regime for example, would it not be better to try to talk with the Iranian government to persuade them to move in that direction ?

If you can't get the numbers is bombing the way to go ?

Take the PRC for example. 1.4 billion people, no free vote. Bomb them too ?

Before I answer can you see you can’t get numbers?

What is needed is a free vote which is impossible. Do you agree that is the case?

Pakistan.
Nuclear missiles. Not a maybe, but confirmed.
Long track record of aiding terrorism via groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. Includiing in the U.K.
Sheltered Osama Bin Laden.
Fragile democracy, more a military dictatorship.
Terrible rights for women and minorities.

Bomb it?

Yes. I agree accurate numbers needs a free vote. And that is impossible.

I was quite amazed at how many Mumsnetters are married to Iranians. I wonder if there's some kind of specialist dating service.

Lol how do you know how many MN are married to Iranians?

If there seems like a lot don't you think your impression could be skewered by being on the CITME board?

I said there will come a point that Iran has nuclear weapons, I didn't say in weeks they would have them.

You replied to something I didn't say.

That regime brutalises it's people. You want to wait until it has nuclear weapons, do ut can do what it wants. That's too late.

I say no. Same as I say Iran should not be bombed.

Leave them alone.
Ignore them.
Let them slaughter thousands of their own citizens, nothing to see there. (Telling them its against the various conventions won't work, they ignore everyone.) Afterall, they are only killing their own.

Let them keep funding Hamas, Hezbollah and The Houthis. They only want to wipe out Israel, no big deal.

Let them cause terrorism through the middle east, nothing to see there.

Let them continue to attempt terrorist attacks in the UK, afterall, our counter intelligence have foiled them so far....
Let them continue to develop nuclear weapons until they have them and use then, too late then, but oh well, there you go.

No of these things which have already been done worked either. They don't follow rules, conventions and guidelines. The regime must have full control. But hey ho, no problem. Then one day, it's too late. We should all ignore them and what they do and all will be fine and dandy 😊
Happy days

Well get ready for $200 Oil and Gas.

In his supreme wisdom Netanyahu greenlit the bombing off Iran (and Qatars) South Pars Gas Field, a clear red line crossed.

Iran has issued a notice to countries who facilated this attack to evacuate certain infrastructure and civilian to evacuate too and they plan to retaliate in kind.

If these infrastructures are destroyed they will take years to rebuild.

Remember who to blame and who started this war of choice.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c24d410m3g4t

Well said.