US and Israel strike Iran. (title edited by MNHQ at request of the OP)

[Twiglets1]

Israel attacked Iran early on Saturday morning, saying it had “launched a pre-emptive strike against Iran to remove threats to the state of Israel,” according to a military spokesman.

Israel closed its airspace and declared a state of emergency, in anticipation of
Iranian drone and missile strikes in response.

Explosions were heard in Tehran on Saturday, Iranian media reported.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/28/israel-launches-attack-on-iran-as-explosions-heard-in-tehran

I don't anticipate 'the people will take over'
No doubt there have been talks going on behind the scenes that we aren't privy to.

The Islamic Republic seem to be firing drones wildly into residential areas - a 5 star hotel in Dubai is on fire (the Fairmont), several residential buildings in Bahrain have been hit by drones and Kuwait’s international airport.

Lebanon signals plans to stay out of conflict

Lebanon has signalled it will not look to escalate the conflict by supporting Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Israeli and US targets.

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said he would not accept anyone dragging Lebanon into “adventures that threaten its security and unity”, in a veiled message to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed terrorist group, said that it had been told by Michael Issa, the US ambassador, that Israel would not escalate against Lebanon as long as there are no hostile acts from the Lebanese side.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/28/israel-launches-attack-against-iran/

There will be a vacuum and the usual groups entering and vying for power. It certainly won't be "the people" who will have a say.

Iran's going to have to wheel out the Ayatollah soon or people will assume he's dead and act accordingly.

I can't claim to know much about Iran's opposition but I don't think there are the tribal/religious issues that we saw in Libya/Iraq.

Israel has urged Iranians to “immediately evacuate” the Isfahan region in the centre of the country ahead of imminent strikes.

The Israeli military told civilians to flee ahead of an attack on “military infrastructure” “in a few minutes” time.

“Urgent alert to all people located in the ‘Gey’ industrial zone in the Isfahan region... in a few minutes, the Israeli army will attack military infrastructure in this zone,” the military posted on its Persian-language X account, along with a map showing the targeted area, warning people to “immediately evacuate this area”.

Looks like (from.sources such as aircraft tracking apps) that not unsurprisingly there's some GPS jamming going on - that might explain some of what we're seeing.

Maybe not tribal but definitely different ideological factions that will operate for power...as always.

I posted a link to this earlier but no one picked up on it.

The IAF has announced that the operation started with crewed strikes. TWZ is updating its coverage every few hours.

www.twz.com/news-features/iran-is-under-attack

UPDATE: 1:36 PM EST—
The Israeli Air Force says that 200 fighters took part in the initial wave of strikes on Iran this morning, and that 500 individual targets were struck “near-simultaneously.”

“This is the largest strike sortie in the history of the Israeli Air Force, executed after close planning with high-quality intelligence, synchronizing hundreds of aircraft simultaneously,” according to a statement from the IDF. This “enabled the expansion of air superiority over Iranian skies and caused a severe blow to the regime’s central offensive capability, the launch sites in western Iran.”

Iran also has opposition networks composed of ethnic minorities—including Kurdish, Baluchi, Ahwazi Arab, and Azerbaijani groups—that have substantial organizational capacity. Their leaders call for not only the end of clerical rule but also the recognition of minority linguistic and cultural rights, the decentralization of power, and meaningful autonomy. But these organizations are usually wary of partnering. The former fear that the latter will replace the Islamic Republic with another Persian-dominated, exclusive, and centralized government, whereas and the latter fear that the former will empower secessionist movements or invite foreign meddling along Iran’s porous and conflict-prone borders.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-divided-opposition

worth reading the Foreign Affairs article.
coordinated opposition is not necessarily insurmountable but by no means a given.

And this
https://apnews.com/article/iran-iraq-kurds-pahlavi-6beae57e9fdc3546a61ec8f1432eef4b#

If we see the result of the overthrow of tyrannical communist regimes in Romania, Poland, East Germany, Ukraine 40 years ago we have seen emerging healthy democracies emerging. I see a lot of doom mongering about the fall of the regime in terms of new governance but I think we should be positive.

@mids none of the countries you’ve mentioned were up against Islam and the more extreme variants of it. In fact I’d say communism was probably a bit of a doodle compared to hardline Islam

Am I understanding Netanyahu’s latest comments correctly that Israel believes Khomeini has been killed? If so this is a huge development but there may not be a peaceful transition of power. Who is in charge now and indiscriminately firing missiles all over the place?

The Middle East cannot be compared to Europe. Regime change often leads to chaos and disruption more often than not there isn't a stable, legitimate replacement.

How on earth are people comparing Eastern Europe to Iran?

There is a huge difference when regimes are overthrown by internal resistance rather than external force. We only have to look at Iraq and Afghanistan to see what most commonly happens - evidence suggests foreign involvement increases the risk of civil war. Overthrowing governments is the easy bit - long term democracy and peace is much more illusive. I think every right -thinking person abhors the current Iranian regime and wants so much better for the Iranian people, but past experience does not suggest peace and stability is that likely unfortunately.

The Middle East isn’t all the same. Iranians are not in Iraq nor Afghanistan.

I see a lot of doom mongering about the fall of the regime in terms of new governance but I think we should be positive.

I think that there is a body of opinion - expressed on here and elsewhere - that is opposed to any right wing regimes and regimes with a monarchy, especially absolute monarchies such as those governing some ME countries like Saudi or Dubai.

Communist or left wing authoritarian regimes with appalling human rights such as Venezuela, China and Cuba are tolerated or even approved of.

Also any interference by Trump will be condemned no matter if the population of the country are largely in favour of the interference.
The Ayatollah and his brutal henchmen is preferable to Trump’s involvement and the possibility of the restoration of a monarchy.

Maybe if Obama or even Biden had launched attacks against Iran’s regime they’d would have had more support - I don’t know.

I am filling the car up with petrol before the prices rise. Let's pray for peace

Please don't contribute to any kind of panic buying.

I think you're right.

It looks like he might well be - probably has been for hours since the initial strike.

Now being reported by Reuters that he is indeed dead. Doesn’t seem to be verified yet though.