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Conflict in the Middle East
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42
SharonEllis · 23/01/2026 09:33

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 09:04

Nobody is minimising their fear. Of course it is genuine if they are from prominent families who supported the previous Shah or if they are still politically active in opposing the current regime. It happened in Iraq to supporters of Abdul Karim Qasim when he was overthrown by the Baathists and then it happened to Baathists when they fell. It happened in Libya to supporters of Gaddafi. It even happened to James II and his supporters after the Glorious Revolution. I would guess, and this is purely from reading your comments, that they would support the reinstatement of the Shah no matter what his political leanings. The question is though, is what the majority of Iranians want? If there is a massive second wave on the 17th February as is expected and the US intervene to help resulting in the overthrow of the current regime, then install Pahlavi as monarch against the wishes of the majority of Iranians, that would be a puppet dictator who would only be able to hang on to power by ruling with an iron fist supported by the US, as his father did. On the other hand, the average Iranian in Iran may be happy to see the reinstatement of the monarchy but personally, I doubt it.

I can't speak for @Ihatetomatoes but my contacts are mostly working class, not from 'prominent families', and not previous supporters of the Shah, and not particularly interested in the Pahlavi subsequently. You are making a lot of assumptions. I think we've cottoned on to your point about puppet dictators as you've made it several times. You are less clear about what you think the mechanism for finding out what most Iranians want. The breadth of the demonstrations and the regime's need to bring in outside militia and merceneries to put them down shows pretty clearly that it isnt the Islamic Republic.

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 09:42

ilikepotatties · 22/01/2026 15:35

I think that is right, it is the million dollar question. In terms of following religious rules, people on the outside telling Iranians what to do is a bit like trying to tell Amish communities or orthodox Jewish communities that following religious rules is wrong and that all the women need to be liberated from the rules around dress and marriage and behaviour. It is patronising.

And in relation to governance, I am not sure we know how the relationship works because all the western reports are made by groups strongly aligned to particular points of view, to a lesser or greater extent partisan, which makes it so difficult to understand what is really happening. All the governance interviews I see are with elected government officials, and many countries around the world have similar set ups with different names - strictly speaking the UK government has an interesting titular relationship with our royal family - why are these posters not protesting about that? You may know more if you have direct experience, but I have googled and could find very little decent information about it.

That is the problem. I do have direct experience as you say but I have no idea what the actual support is by the majority of Iranians for the current regime. There is obviously significant opposition but, as I have asked before, is this a direct challenge to the theocracy or is it purely as a result of the economy and what percentage of the population actually feel this way. Just to let you know, I am an ardent secularist. I do not believe that any country should be based on religion, either Muslim, Christian, Jewish, Buddhist, Hindu, anything. I believe religion should be a personal thing and that is it. If you want to believe the world was created by a magic monkey riding a flying unicorn, go for it, fill your boots but keep it to yourself. It should have no impact on me or anyone else. It is an archaic concept that should not exist in this modern world. Anyway, enough of that rant but obviously I have no love of a theocracy but that is my personal view and I have no idea what the Iranian people actually want.

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 10:04

SharonEllis · 23/01/2026 09:33

I can't speak for @Ihatetomatoes but my contacts are mostly working class, not from 'prominent families', and not previous supporters of the Shah, and not particularly interested in the Pahlavi subsequently. You are making a lot of assumptions. I think we've cottoned on to your point about puppet dictators as you've made it several times. You are less clear about what you think the mechanism for finding out what most Iranians want. The breadth of the demonstrations and the regime's need to bring in outside militia and merceneries to put them down shows pretty clearly that it isnt the Islamic Republic.

Well if your friends are not supporters of the previous Shah and are still fearing for their lives, I can only assume they must be politically active in opposing the current regime. I say this because otherwise it makes no sense that they fear for their lives. As I have said previously, I have many friends who regularly go back to Iran to visit family and friends without issue.

I have not said the riots are not significant but Iran is a country with a population of over 90 million. The fact that the regime is using Shia Iraqi militia to quell them does indicate they are large but how large. If you are saying it is the majority of Iranians, that is an assumption on your part. I don’t know and I’m pretty sure you don’t either. I don’t know what the answer is to actually find out if the clerics refuse to cede power to the parliament but I do know a foreign power coming in and overthrowing the current regime in order to install their own man is not the answer.

EasternStandard · 23/01/2026 10:07

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 10:04

Well if your friends are not supporters of the previous Shah and are still fearing for their lives, I can only assume they must be politically active in opposing the current regime. I say this because otherwise it makes no sense that they fear for their lives. As I have said previously, I have many friends who regularly go back to Iran to visit family and friends without issue.

I have not said the riots are not significant but Iran is a country with a population of over 90 million. The fact that the regime is using Shia Iraqi militia to quell them does indicate they are large but how large. If you are saying it is the majority of Iranians, that is an assumption on your part. I don’t know and I’m pretty sure you don’t either. I don’t know what the answer is to actually find out if the clerics refuse to cede power to the parliament but I do know a foreign power coming in and overthrowing the current regime in order to install their own man is not the answer.

Would you say you are ok with the current answer which is violent oppression from the regime?

What should the people do to get out of their situation?

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 10:19

EasternStandard · 23/01/2026 10:07

Would you say you are ok with the current answer which is violent oppression from the regime?

What should the people do to get out of their situation?

Revolutions are nearly always extremely bloody affairs. If the revolutionaries have the numbers, they will succeed. Eventually, as with most other successful revolutions, the military will either stand down or turn on the current regime. It is not up to a foreign power to intervene in the internal struggles of a sovereign country and if they do, there will be nothing altruistic about it because they care about the poor Iranian people, it will be to change a regime they don’t like in order to install their own man for their own interests.

OpheliaIsntMad · 23/01/2026 10:32

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 10:04

Well if your friends are not supporters of the previous Shah and are still fearing for their lives, I can only assume they must be politically active in opposing the current regime. I say this because otherwise it makes no sense that they fear for their lives. As I have said previously, I have many friends who regularly go back to Iran to visit family and friends without issue.

I have not said the riots are not significant but Iran is a country with a population of over 90 million. The fact that the regime is using Shia Iraqi militia to quell them does indicate they are large but how large. If you are saying it is the majority of Iranians, that is an assumption on your part. I don’t know and I’m pretty sure you don’t either. I don’t know what the answer is to actually find out if the clerics refuse to cede power to the parliament but I do know a foreign power coming in and overthrowing the current regime in order to install their own man is not the answer.

Given that people in Iran could be executed for being gay ( or for adultery or apostacy) I don’t think it’s true to say you have to be politically active to be in fear for your life.
https://amp.dw.com/en/iran-defends-execution-of-gay-people/a-49144899

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 10:48

OpheliaIsntMad · 23/01/2026 10:32

Given that people in Iran could be executed for being gay ( or for adultery or apostacy) I don’t think it’s true to say you have to be politically active to be in fear for your life.
https://amp.dw.com/en/iran-defends-execution-of-gay-people/a-49144899

Edited

That I will concede is absolutely true. Knowing the rules, if you went to Iran, you would obviously have to obey those rules and not march around with a pride flag. I lived in the UAE for a number of years and believe it or not, until quite recently, those rules were enforced there but not with a capital sentence. It is still officially the rules there but they have a policy of don’t ask don’t tell. Having said that, if I was still there and my husband had an affair so I reported him, the police would be forced to act and he would be in deep trouble.

EasternStandard · 23/01/2026 10:50

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 10:19

Revolutions are nearly always extremely bloody affairs. If the revolutionaries have the numbers, they will succeed. Eventually, as with most other successful revolutions, the military will either stand down or turn on the current regime. It is not up to a foreign power to intervene in the internal struggles of a sovereign country and if they do, there will be nothing altruistic about it because they care about the poor Iranian people, it will be to change a regime they don’t like in order to install their own man for their own interests.

Hopefully they will succeed.

Your description of the people opposing in the 10.04 post isn’t useful and I’m not sure why you would frame it in that way.

OpheliaIsntMad · 23/01/2026 10:55

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 10:48

That I will concede is absolutely true. Knowing the rules, if you went to Iran, you would obviously have to obey those rules and not march around with a pride flag. I lived in the UAE for a number of years and believe it or not, until quite recently, those rules were enforced there but not with a capital sentence. It is still officially the rules there but they have a policy of don’t ask don’t tell. Having said that, if I was still there and my husband had an affair so I reported him, the police would be forced to act and he would be in deep trouble.

And if you had gay relatives or friends, gay sons or daughters… you would also be fearful.
And I presume educators, teachers cannot allow free discussion on a number of topics or they could be accused under one of the many vague rules the regime imposes “ waging war against God” , spreading corruption”
It’s simply not true to say that the only people who need to be fearful are the politically active.

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 10:55

EasternStandard · 23/01/2026 10:50

Hopefully they will succeed.

Your description of the people opposing in the 10.04 post isn’t useful and I’m not sure why you would frame it in that way.

I don’t quite understand what you mean. I’m merely trying to highlight the fact that it is not known how many people actually support the revolution as a percentage of the population.

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 11:00

OpheliaIsntMad · 23/01/2026 10:55

And if you had gay relatives or friends, gay sons or daughters… you would also be fearful.
And I presume educators, teachers cannot allow free discussion on a number of topics or they could be accused under one of the many vague rules the regime imposes “ waging war against God” , spreading corruption”
It’s simply not true to say that the only people who need to be fearful are the politically active.

I was actually referring to people who live out of the country. If you are a gay person living in Iran, it would be terrifying without a doubt. Perhaps you missed my post where I said I am opposed to all religious laws being imposed on others.

OpheliaIsntMad · 23/01/2026 11:01

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 10:55

I don’t quite understand what you mean. I’m merely trying to highlight the fact that it is not known how many people actually support the revolution as a percentage of the population.

You said it makes no sense that Iranians would fear for their lives unless they were politically active.

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 11:03

OpheliaIsntMad · 23/01/2026 11:01

You said it makes no sense that Iranians would fear for their lives unless they were politically active.

I meant those living out of the country. The poster was referring to her friends who don’t live in Iran, I presume.

OpheliaIsntMad · 23/01/2026 11:04

https://www.mishcon.com/news/iranian-spy-plot-foiled-in-the-uk
”n May 2025, UK authorities charged three Iranian nationals—Mostafa Sepahvand, Farhad Javadi Manesh, and Shapoor Qalehali Khani Noori—with espionage offences under the National Security Act.
The trio are accused of conducting surveillance and reconnaissance activities targeting UK-based journalists associated with ‘Iran International’, a Persian-language media outlet critical of the Iranian regime. These activities allegedly occurred between August 2024 and February 2025, with the intent to facilitate serious acts of violence.
Iran International has long been under pressure. However, the plots to cause violence on UK soil show that authoritarian or theocratic governments are increasingly exporting repression across borders, using espionage and intimidation to silence criticism and erode press freedoms. “

Iranian spy plot foiled in the UK

In May 2025, UK authorities charged three Iranian nationals with espionage offences under the National Security Act.

https://www.mishcon.com/news/iranian-spy-plot-foiled-in-the-uk

OpheliaIsntMad · 23/01/2026 11:06

Iranians who want to speak freely continue to be threatened even when they live in other countries

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 11:08

That’s the political activism I was talking about. They’re not going to hunt down gay Iranians living out of the country.

OpheliaIsntMad · 23/01/2026 11:12

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 11:08

That’s the political activism I was talking about. They’re not going to hunt down gay Iranians living out of the country.

I guess if you label overseas journalists who criticise Iran as political activists then they must expect to be targets and in fear for their lives then ..

OpheliaIsntMad · 23/01/2026 11:15

“political activism” aka “free speech “
If someone leaves Iran in fear for their life- they are probably also fearful for loved ones left behind.
It makes sense that they would be involved in groups that campaign for freedom for Iran. They probably love their country and the people they left behind and want to support the protesters.

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 11:24

OpheliaIsntMad · 23/01/2026 11:15

“political activism” aka “free speech “
If someone leaves Iran in fear for their life- they are probably also fearful for loved ones left behind.
It makes sense that they would be involved in groups that campaign for freedom for Iran. They probably love their country and the people they left behind and want to support the protesters.

Edited

What are you trying to argue about. I’m not saying I agree with it. I’m just saying how it is. I’ve said multiple times, I would personally like to see the theocracy gone and a true democratic government rule in Iran but that is my opinion. I don’t know what the majority of Iranian people in Iran want. If you want to go on about rights, try being a communist in the US, especially in the 1950s. Try getting an abortion for your 9 year old daughter who has been raped in Louisiana now.

SharonEllis · 23/01/2026 11:42

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 11:03

I meant those living out of the country. The poster was referring to her friends who don’t live in Iran, I presume.

@RedSongBird maybe don't presume? where did I say the friends I am thinking of are 'fearing for their lives'? I certainly know of contacts who are fearing for their lives but they weren't who I was referring to and the Iranian diaspora is huge and varied. The nature of the repressiion they suffer and levels of fear is alo very varied. Its not just people who one would class as a 'political activist' who have a shit time in Iran. And yes I know people who go back. That doesnt prove anything other than that those peoplecare not currently in active danger of arrest or death.

It would help a lot if you would debate people say, not something else.

SharonEllis · 23/01/2026 11:44

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 11:24

What are you trying to argue about. I’m not saying I agree with it. I’m just saying how it is. I’ve said multiple times, I would personally like to see the theocracy gone and a true democratic government rule in Iran but that is my opinion. I don’t know what the majority of Iranian people in Iran want. If you want to go on about rights, try being a communist in the US, especially in the 1950s. Try getting an abortion for your 9 year old daughter who has been raped in Louisiana now.

Are you honestly comparing the Islamic Republic with the United States now (ignoring the ridiculous coparison with the 50s)?

inamarina · 23/01/2026 11:48

SharonEllis · 23/01/2026 11:44

Are you honestly comparing the Islamic Republic with the United States now (ignoring the ridiculous coparison with the 50s)?

I’ve seen some odd attempts to derail and minimise what’s happening in Iran right now on this forum. Not entirely sure why people are doing it.
Meanwhile, thousands (or possibly tens of thousands) have been killed in Iran by the regime in Iran in just a few weeks.

EasternStandard · 23/01/2026 11:51

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 11:24

What are you trying to argue about. I’m not saying I agree with it. I’m just saying how it is. I’ve said multiple times, I would personally like to see the theocracy gone and a true democratic government rule in Iran but that is my opinion. I don’t know what the majority of Iranian people in Iran want. If you want to go on about rights, try being a communist in the US, especially in the 1950s. Try getting an abortion for your 9 year old daughter who has been raped in Louisiana now.

Really?

EasternStandard · 23/01/2026 12:02

inamarina · 23/01/2026 11:48

I’ve seen some odd attempts to derail and minimise what’s happening in Iran right now on this forum. Not entirely sure why people are doing it.
Meanwhile, thousands (or possibly tens of thousands) have been killed in Iran by the regime in Iran in just a few weeks.

Perhaps they should read this

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/jan/13/hundreds-of-gunshot-eye-injuries-found-in-one-iranian-hospital-amid-brutal-crackdown-on-protests

An ophthalmologist in Tehran has documented more than 400 eye injuries from gunshots in a single hospital, as overwhelmed medical staff struggle to cope with the toll of an increasingly violent crackdown on nationwide protests by Iranian authorities.

Three doctors, in messages forwarded to the Guardian on Monday, described overwhelmed hospitals and emergency wings overflowing with protesters who had been shot. Medical staff said the gunshot wounds were mostly concentrated on protesters’ eyes and heads – a tactic that rights groups said authorities used against demonstrators in the country’s 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom protests.

UK announces ‘full and further sanctions’ amid Iran killings and arrests

“[Security forces] are deliberately shooting at the head and the eyes. They want to damage the head and the eyes so they can no longer see, the same thing they did in [2022],” said a doctor in Tehran. The doctor added that many of the patients had to have their eyes removed and were blinded.

Hundreds of gunshot eye injuries found in one Iranian hospital amid brutal crackdown on protests

Doctors in Tehran tell of overwhelmed medical staff as violent crackdown intensifies

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/jan/13/hundreds-of-gunshot-eye-injuries-found-in-one-iranian-hospital-amid-brutal-crackdown-on-protests

RedSongBird · 23/01/2026 12:03

SharonEllis · 23/01/2026 11:42

@RedSongBird maybe don't presume? where did I say the friends I am thinking of are 'fearing for their lives'? I certainly know of contacts who are fearing for their lives but they weren't who I was referring to and the Iranian diaspora is huge and varied. The nature of the repressiion they suffer and levels of fear is alo very varied. Its not just people who one would class as a 'political activist' who have a shit time in Iran. And yes I know people who go back. That doesnt prove anything other than that those peoplecare not currently in active danger of arrest or death.

It would help a lot if you would debate people say, not something else.

I will concede one thing to you. You did not specifically say your friends are fearing for their lives. That was another poster.

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